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Cablegate: Saf and Spla Force Redeployment Faces Tough Deadlines,

VZCZCXRO1642
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #2003 3480741
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 140741Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9566
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 002003

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE NATSIOS
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SAF AND SPLA FORCE REDEPLOYMENT FACES TOUGH DEADLINES,
LOGISTIC CHALLENGES

REFERENCE: KHARTOUM 1928

1. (SBU) Media reported on December 12 that Joint Defense Board
(JDB) spokesman Lt. General Abdalrahman Mohammed Zain said that
Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudanese Peoples Liberation Army
(SPLA) forces will begin redeployment consistent with the 1/1/56
border the weekend of December 14. SPLA forces will immediately
redeploy out Abumatarig and Dibb (in Western Kordofan) and SAF
forces will mirror this movement out of South Sudan.

2. (SBU) This announcement reflects the decision of the December 3
Ceasefire Joint Monitoring Committee (CJMC), which established the
following timetable for redeployment of forces from Southern Sudan,
Blue Nile and Southern and Western Kordofan:

- SAF & SPLA are to be redeployed North and South respectively by
33.3 percent by December 15;
- SAF & SPLA are to be redeployed North and South respectively by
66.7 percent by December 31;
- Full redeployment for both sides to complete by January 9, 2008.
- Concurrent redeployment of Joint Integrated Units (JIU) by January
9, 2008.
- Missiriya militia from Western Kordofan to be redeployed to the
South by December 15.

3. (SBU) UN Deputy Force Commander Colonel Aja Sah told poloff on
December 13 that based on the December 3 Kampala CJMC, UNMIS would
monitor SAF/SPLA redeployments which should be completed by January
9, 2008. Sah said that to date he had not seen any SAF or SPLA
operational orders yet, but stressed that Joint Monitoring Teams
(JMT) are ready to monitor any movement if they take place this
weekend. Asked which specific SAF and SPLA units plan to start
moving this weekend, Sah replied, "I am looking for such a plan as
well."

4. (SBU) Commander of the JIU, Lt. General Thomas Cirillo, told
emboff on November 29 that while JIUs are considered 82 percent
redeployed or at least co-located, substantial obstacles to the
completion of the redeployment of the rest remain. These included
lack of accommodations, water, medical support services,
infrastructure, communication equipment, and logistical transport
equipment. Without overcoming these major obstacles, JIUs cannot be
redeployed to takeover from the redeployed SAF/SPLA forces,
especially with such a tight schedule.

5. (SBU) Comment: The number of SAF troops to be redeployed number
3,600 while estimates of SPLA forces to be redeployed exceed 50,000
(the SPLA may have inflated their numbers but they are the ones who
provided them). The size of the forces to be moved necessitates
careful planning, which we have not seen and is unusual in Sudan
under the best circumstances. These logistical problems are
compounded by the agreement to concurrently redeploy the JIUs to
take over for the redeployed SAF/SPLA forces, which is also unlikely
to occur so quickly. We would expect some furtive troop movements
this weekend followed by a hold-in-place of some troops. Some
soldiers may simply have to be "re-branded" as JIU troops. The next
CJMC meeting is scheduled for December 17.

FERNANDEZ

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