Cablegate: Yesha Leader Says There Was a Deal On Outposts,

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DE RUEHJM #0103 0181420
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P 181420Z JAN 08
FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0301
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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SIPDIS

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NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE. NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/PASCUAL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2018
TAGS: KWBG PBTS PREL PHUM IS
SUBJECT: YESHA LEADER SAYS THERE WAS A DEAL ON OUTPOSTS,
BUT PM OLMERT NIXED IT

Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: Yesha Council Chairman Dani Dayan told
PolOff January 16 that the settlers had reached a ""limited
deal"" with MOD Barak to evacuate ""a few outposts"" in exchange
for continued issuance of construction permits in existing
settlement population centers, but PM Olmert vetoed the deal.
Dayan said Olmert is ""paralyzed"" by USG pressure to evacuate
outposts and halt settlement construction simultaneously, and
the twin requirements leave him no room to negotiate. END
SUMMARY

""Limited Deal"" Agreed
between Settlers and Barak
--------------------------

2. (C) Yesha Council Chairman Dani Dayan told PolOff
January 16 that a ""limited deal"" was reached several weeks
ago with MOD Barak to remove ""a few outposts,"" but PM Olmert
later vetoed it. According to Dayan, the deal was a
""confidence building measure"" that would allow issuance of
construction permits in settlement population centers in
exchange for voluntary removal of sparsely populated
outposts.

3. (C) Settlement movement founder and Kiryat Arba resident
Elyakim Haetzni described the deal as follows: residents of
""outposts on private land"" would voluntarily dismantle and
evacuate their outposts and move ""to another nearby hilltop""
on land considered by the GOI to be state land, and the GOI
would recognize the new outposts as legal. Haetzni said PM
Olmert rejected the deal that would have legalized the new
outposts, because ""he committed to the U.S. not to
compromise."" According to Dayan, since Olmert's rejection,
the settlers have taken this deal off the table. He added
that they are watching carefully the upcoming February 6 High
Court of Justice hearing on Migron outpost.

Dayan: GOI Paralyzed on Settlements
-----------------------------------

4. (C) Dayan said Olmert is ""paralyzed"" by USG pressure to
freeze settlement construction and evacuate outposts and has
no room to negotiate with settlers. The ""US requirement""
that Olmert freeze construction and evacuate outposts
simultaneously leaves Olmert nothing to trade, according to
Dayan, and that explains his veto of Barak's deal with the
settlers. Dayan added that the recent increase in Qassam
rockets from Gaza prevents Olmert from ""bringing the army"" to
forcibly evacuate outposts, which would mean ""civil war.""

5. (C) Dayan said Olmert ""seems determined to follow
through after Annapolis,"" but he believes ""something will
give"" shortly. He anticipates that the late January final
Winograd report will be a ""political earthquake,"" Olmert's
coalition will break up, and ""we'll have elections in 2008.""
Dayan said settlers have greater political leverage than
previously, with particular influence in the right wing
parties.

6. (C) Dayan said he and settler advocate MK Otniel
Schneller met Quartet Special Representative Tony Blair last
week and asked to see the Secretary on her next visit.
WALLES
"

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