Cablegate: Saf and Spla Declare Each Other's Redeployments Incomplete

VZCZCXRO7743
PP RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0089 0221252
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 221252Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9755
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000089

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SAF AND SPLA DECLARE EACH OTHER'S REDEPLOYMENTS INCOMPLETE

REFERENCE: (A) KHARTOUM 0026
(B) 07 KHARTOUM 2003
(C) 07 KHARTOUM 1928

1. (SBU) Two weeks after the January 9 deadline for troop
redeployment, and despite high-profile media announcements by both
armies that they had redeployed their troops, now both the SAF and
the SPLA have begun accusing each other of not fully withdrawing.
One of the National Congress Party's most prominent Misseriya Arab
members, Dirdeiry Mohammed Ahmed, told poloffs January 16 that more
than 20,000 SPLA troops still occupy areas north of the 1/1/56
border in Southern Kordofan. Dirdeiry acknowledged that the SPLA
had largely withdrawn from Blue Nile State, but claimed they had
moved into "contested areas" that both the north and south claim
along the border. SPLA spokesman James Hoth claimed to the media
and repeated to CG/Juba officers that 500 Sudan Armed Forces (SAF)
remained in the south and that other SAF troops are within 10 to 20
kilometers of the 1/1/56 border.

2. (SBU) UNMIS Chief Operations Officer Ajay Singh told poloff on
January 21 that once the UN has completed its verification process,
the verification statistics will be submitted to the Ceasefire Joint
Monitoring Commission (CJMC) for review. He said that the next CJMC
meeting is scheduled for January 29. UN Force Commander Lt. General
Jasper Singh Lidder told emboffs that he welcomed the SAF and SPLA
force redeployment announcements but since none have been verified
by the UN or the joint monitoring verification teams, claims of
redeployment are premature.

3. (SBU) International NGO officials told poloff January 16 that
some SPLA troops have withdrawn from South Kordofan, but local Nuba
militia remains. Since the SPLA controls one faction of the local
militia, the NGO officials expressed concern that the local militia
will continue to be a source of instability, especially in light of
the recent fighting in and around Abyei. International NGO contacts
in Blue Nile State said that while the SPLA has not totally
withdrawn, there is a "dramatic decrease" in the number of SPLA
troops and those who remain are still moving south as of January 20.

4. (SBU) Comment: In the days before the January 9 deadline, both
sides said that meeting the deadline would be difficult because of
the large number of the troops and the difficult terrain. The
widely-publicized announcements on January 9 of movements of large
numbers of troops surprised the UN, in part because neither side had
met any of the agreed interim monitoring steps (ref B) nor submitted
movement plans to the UN or to the Sector Joint Military Committees.
It appears that the redeployments are far from complete and must be
verified. The piecemeal initiatives by both sides to move their
troops, however, should be viewed positively while realizing that
process is incomplete and the possibility of unintended military
confrontation remains. End comment.

FERNANDEZ

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