Cablegate: Goss Minister for Presidential Affairs On Icc, Elections,

VZCZCXRO7490
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #1126/02 2091409
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 271409Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1439
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001126

DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: GOSS MINISTER FOR PRESIDENTIAL AFFAIRS ON ICC, ELECTIONS,
ABYEI AND THE LRA

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the South and its elections strategy. Clearly, the SPLM sees the
indictments as a possible threat to the implementation of the CPA,
and is focused on how to keep the CPA on track no matter what. The
SPLM is always eager to seek additional leverage against the NCP and
views a possible run (or threat to run) by Kiir for the national
presidency in this regard. The problem of who would run in Kiir's
place in the South, and what the party would do if Kiir loses in the
national election, has not been fully addressed. Presumably the
SPLM will say Kiir intends to run in the national election until the
last possible minute, to gain leverage with the NCP, and then strike
a deal to keep the status quo. It is certainly hard to imagine
anyone else besides Salva Kiir being president of the GOSS in the
sensitive and historic years leading up to the 2011 referendum on
Southern independence.

FERNANDEZ

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