Search

 

Cablegate: Mugabe Biographer Says Mbeki Mediation Will Fail;

VZCZCXRO0019
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #1570/01 1991523
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171523Z JUL 08
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5122
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1550
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1393
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0004
RUEHTN/AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN 5830
RUEHJO/AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 8230
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0559

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 001570

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S, INR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL KDEM PINR SF ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE BIOGRAPHER SAYS MBEKI MEDIATION WILL FAIL;
URGES U.K. OUTREACH

PRETORIA 00001570 001.2 OF 002


1. (C) SUMMARY: Mugabe biographer Heidi Holland doubts that
the Zimbabwean leader is serious about the South African-led
talks. Mugabe will continue to "run rings" around South
African President Mbeki, as he has done for years. She fears
a vengeful Mugabe is intent on destroying the Zimbabwean
opposition. In her view, only direct U.K. talks with Mugabe
could possibly lead to his departure from office, a point she
recently made to U.K. Foreign Secretary Miliband. Holland
recommends using former Zimbabwean Minister Denis Norman, one
of the few people Mugabe trusts, as the link between Harare
and London. END SUMMARY.

2. (SBU) PolOff met on July 15 in Johannesburg with Heidi
Holland, author of the recently-published biography of
Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe entitled "Dinner with
Mugabe." Working through Mugabe confidante Father Fidelis
Mukonori, Holland secured a 2 1/2 hour interview with Mugabe
in January 2008 (Mugabe's last interview with Western media
was three years earlier). Holland also interviewed dozens of
people who know Mugabe well, and worked closely with
psychologists to flesh out the portrait of Mugabe.

---------------
Mbeki Will Fail
---------------

3. (C) Holland painted a picture of a paranoid, sad, lonely
and vengeful Mugabe, intent on holding onto power at all
costs. Holland doubts that Mugabe is serious about the South
African-led negotiations with the opposition Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC), noting that Mugabe has no respect
for the MDC and regards Mbeki as little more than a "boy."
As he has done since 2000, Mugabe will run circles around
Mbeki, buying time to destroy the political opposition.

---------------------
Only U.K. Can Succeed
---------------------

4. (C) According to Holland, Mugabe continues to believe
(however falsely) that his real problem is the United
Kingdom. This reflects Mugabe's deep-seated belief that the
British failed to hold up their end of the Lancaster House
bargain. Despite his harsh anti-U.K. rhetoric, Mugabe
idealizes the British and craves their respect. In Holland's
view, the only possibility of getting Mugabe out of power
before he dies -- which could be a long time, Holland said,
noting that his mother lived to be nearly 100 -- is direct
British engagement with Mugabe. Holland met with U.K.
Foreign Secretary Miliband during his July 6-8 trip to South
Africa to make her pitch for direct talks with Mugabe. She
says Miliband listened to her arguments, although was
skeptical.

5. (C) The ideal person to serve as the link between the U.K.
and Mugabe, Holland suggested, is Denis Norman, the white
Zimbabwean who served as a minister in Mugabe's government
and now lives the U.K. Holland said that Mugabe has
confidence in Norman, one of only a few people he trusts (she
also mentioned Father Mukonori and former EU advisor Tim
Sheehy). Holland did not see a major role for the USG in her
proposed outreach to Mugabe, but noted that Mugabe respected
former Secretary of State Kissinger.

6. (C) Holland suggested that Mugabe might be willing to
accept a "best person government," with Mugabe as Head of
State but "technocrats" running the ministries. This is much
QState but "technocrats" running the ministries. This is much
more palatable than a "government of national unity" or
"transitional government," and could be sold to Mugabe as
resembling his first term as president (1980-85), a period
Mugabe remembers fondly.

---------------------
Sad, Lonely, Vengeful
---------------------

7. (SBU) The Zimbabwean president is isolated and lonely,
Holland suggested, and has been much of his life. Mugabe was
abandoned by his father at a young age; as a child, "books

PRETORIA 00001570 002.4 OF 002


**************** ZFR ********** ZFR ************ ZFR ************

BOST

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
World Headlines

 

UN: Violations Of Palestinian Rights Puts Two-State Solution At Risk, Chief Warns
The situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, continues to pose a significant challenge to international peace and security, United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, said on Monday... More>>



Oxfam: Afghanistan Faces Multiple Crises

ActionStation, Amnesty International Aotearoa New Zealand, Christian World Service, Oxfam Aotearoa and World Vision New Zealand say that while Afghanistan faces chronic poverty, persistent droughts, war, the Covid-19 pandemic and an economic crisis, winter is about to bring a whole new set of challenges...More>>

AFTINET: New COVID Strain Postpones WTO Meeting

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) Ministerial Meeting scheduled for November 30-December 3 has been postponed indefinitely because the new Omicron strain of the COVID-19 virus in African countries with low vaccination rates prevents many African and other delegations from attending the meeting...
More>>


Focus On: UN SDGs

Food: Three Billion People Cannot Afford A Healthy Diet

Approximately three billion people, almost 40 per cent of the world’s population, cannot afford a healthy diet and another one billion people would join their ranks should further unpredictable events reduce incomes by one-third, the UN food agency said, launching a new report on Tuesday... More>>

COP26: Enough Of ‘Treating Nature Like A Toilet’ – Guterres Brings Stark Call For Climate Action To Glasgow
As the World Leaders Summit opened on day two of COP26, UN chief António Guterres sent a stark message to the international community. “We are digging our own graves”, he said, referring to the addiction to fossil fuels which threatens to push humanity and the planet, to the brink, through unsustainable global heating... More>>


Climate: ‘Vague’ Net Zero Promises Not Enough: Planet Still On Track For Catastrophic Heating, UN Report Warns

New and updated commitments made ahead of the pivotal climate conference COP26 in the past months are a positive step forward, but the world remains on track for a dangerous global temperature rise of at least 2.7°C this century even if fully met, a new report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned... More>>