Cablegate: Global Economy: Doha Round

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DE RUEHSO #0417 2141112
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 011112Z AUG 08
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8433
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 9573
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 8802
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 3138

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000417

SIPDIS

STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD

DEPT PASS USTR

USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: GLOBAL ECONOMY: DOHA ROUND

Putting the Pieces Together After Doha

Lead editorial in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (08/01) says
"The world is more dangerous for international trade with the
collapse of the Doha Round. The imposition of the law of the
stronger [nations] will be much easier than it would be, in the
coming years, if the negotiators had reached a modest agreement, but
acceptable agreement for all. ... The evident risk, now, is the
increase in subsidies, with the new U.S. Agricultural Law. ...
Brazil will be one of the countries that will be harmed if these
possibilities are confirmed, as it would have been one of the major
winners, in case an agreement was reached. ... Meanwhile, only U.S.
Trade Representative Susan Schwab has proposed a concrete proposal
by suggesting a restart of the negotiations and establishing
agreements on partial packages. ...The longer the negotiations are
suspended, the more difficult it will be to put the pieces back
together and even more improbable will be the ability to recuperate
points agreed to up until now. The change of administration in the
U.S. and the European Union may create new priorities - and the new
administrations probably will be more sensitive to protectionist's
voices. ....The harm will especially large for the majority of the
countries, if the loss of this effort results in a weakening of WTO
and cracks in the multilateral system.
Story

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