Cablegate: Daily Summary of Japanese Press 08/19/09
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SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 08/19/09
INDEX:
(1) What's New U.S. Ambassador to Japan John Roos like? A lawyer
without experience in politics or diplomacy; President Obama trusts
him -- "He can advise me" (Mainichi)
(2) Poll: Aso cabinet, political parties (Asahi)
(3) Poll on 2009 general election (Tokyo Shimbun)
(4) DPJ "bullish" while LDP "defensive" in Lower House election,
with DPJ fielding more candidates than LDP for the first time
(Mainichi)
(5) Part 1 of series "Choice in 2009 Election": Need for a vision
for Japan's future (Yomiuri)
(6) 27 former Lower House members retire from political community or
decide not to run in Lower House election (Mainichi)
(7) Start of official campaign for Lower House election: Urgent need
for mid- and long-term strategy for mounting employment, fiscal
issues; Relationship with bureaucrats to change (Mainichi)
(8) Riding on tailwind, DPJ fields many neophytes, female candidates
(Mainichi)
(9) LDP, DPJ scurry to prepare candidate lists for proportional
representation segment in upcoming Lower House election (Asahi)
(10) Security policy debate essential during election campaigning
(Sankei)
(11) What became of the DPJ's philosophy on agricultural
administration? (Foresight)
(12) April-June real GDP grows 3.7% on rise in exports to Asia
(Nikkei)
(13) Futenma relocation: 344 people file case against Japanese
Government today requesting another environmental assessment
(Okinawa Times)
(14) Okinawa Municipal Council for Military Land Conversion and Base
Problems to request cancellation of live-fire drills - Okinawa
Governor joins the council for first time to reveal stray bullet
incident (Okinawa Times)
ARTICLES:
(1) What's New U.S. Ambassador to Japan John Roos like? A lawyer
without experience in politics or diplomacy; President Obama trusts
him -- "He can advise me"
(Reporter Yoso Furumoto answers readers' questions about the new
U.S. Ambassador.)
Mainichi (Page 3) (Full)
August 19, 2009
Q: Mr. John Roos has been appointed the new U.S. Ambassador to
Japan. What is the responsibility of the U.S. ambassador to Japan?
A: When there is a pending issue between Japan and the United
States, past ambassadors have played an important role as mediator
between Tokyo and Washington. (The U.S.) Ambassador (to Japan)
plays an active role when bureaucrats are unable to coordinate their
views. Recently, there have been many occasions when an ambassador
played a coordinator's role because of gaps in awareness and a
difference of opinion over the deployment of the Self-Defense Forces
to Iraq and policy toward North Korea.
Q: U.S. President Barack Obama introduced Mr. Roos as "a man who can
advise me directly." What about past ambassadors?
TOKYO 00001917 002 OF 019
A: Many political heavyweights have served as U.S. Ambassador to
Japan. Mr. Howard Baker, the U.S. Ambassador to Japan 2001 - 2005,
was leader of the Senate. Mr. Thomas Foley (1997 - 2001) was leader
of the House, and Mr. Walter Mondale
(1993 - 1996) was vice president. In Japan there was concern over
Mr. Roos because he is not a politician and is not well known here.
That is why President Obama introduced Mr. Roos as someone he
trusts. It was President Obama's message to Japan that "there is no
need to worry."
Q: I heard that Mr. Roos does not have experience in diplomacy.
A: Certainly, it is unusual that someone without experience in
politics or diplomacy is named (U.S.) ambassador (to Japan). Like
Mr. Roos, former Ambassador to Japan Thomas Schieffer, a longtime
friend of former U.S. President George Bush, has a background in
business. However, Mr. Schieffer was a Texas state legislator and
had been U.S. Ambassador to Australia before becoming his country's
ambassador to Japan.
Q: What challenges will Ambassador Roos face?
A: A government led by the Democratic Party of Japan will likely
take power after the general election. If that happens, his first
task would be to meet with the leaders of the new government,
accurately ascertain their thinking with regard to the U.S.-Japan
relationship, and convey their views to the President. Mr. Roos
worked as a lawyer in Silicon Valley, California, where companies at
the cutting edge (of technology) are concentrated. According to
people who have recently been in contact with him, he has a keen
interest in the development of new energy and other advanced
technologies. He appears to have specific ideas for fresh U.S.-Japan
cooperation in this area. As for security, he has stressed the
importance of the Japan-U.S. alliance, so there is unlikely to be a
big policy shift.
(2) Poll: Aso cabinet, political parties
ASAHI (Page 4) (Abridged)
August 18, 2009
Questions & Answers
(Figures are percentages, rounded off. Figures in the four columns,
from left to right, are the results of previous surveys conducted
July 4-5, July 18-19, Aug. 1-2, and Aug. 15-16.)
Q: Do you support the Aso cabinet?
Yes 20 17 18 19
No 68 69 63 65
Q: Which political party do you support now?
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 24 20 24 20
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 25 31 26 32
New Komeito (NK) 3 3 4 2
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2 2 2 4
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1 1 1 1
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0 0 0 0
Your Party (YP or Minna no To) -- -- -- 0
Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) 0 0 0 0
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 0 0 0
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Other political parties 0 0 0 0
None 39 35 30 34
No answer (N/A) + don't know (D/K) 6 8 13 6
Q: To what extent are you interested in the upcoming general
election for the House of Representatives? (One choice only)
Very interested 38 43 49 49
Somewhat interested 36 38 35 38
Not very interested 20 13 11 12
Not interested at all 6 5 4 1
Q: If you were to vote now in the general election, which political
party would you like to vote for in your proportional representation
bloc?
LDP 22 19 22 21
DPJ 37 42 39 40
NK 4 4 5 4
JCP 4 4 3 5
SDP 1 1 1 2
PNP 0 1 0 1
YP -- -- -- 0
RC 0 0 0 0
NPN 0 0 0 0
Other political parties 1 1 1 0
N/A+D/K 31 28 29 27
Q: Which political party's candidate would you like to vote for in
your single-seat constituency?
LDP 22 20 22 21
DPJ 32 37 37 40
NK 3 3 2 2
JCP 2 2 2 3
SDP 1 1 1 1
PNP 0 0 0 0
YP -- -- -- 0
RC 0 0 0 0
NPN 0 0 0 0
Other political parties 0 0 0 2
Independent candidate 2 0 1 1
N/A+D/K 39 37 35 29
Q: Would you like the current LDP-led coalition government to
continue, or would you otherwise like it to be replaced with a
DPJ-led coalition government?
LDP-led coalition 24 22 24 21
DPJ-led coalition 47 49 46 49
Q: Who do you think is more appropriate for prime minister, Prime
Minister Aso or DPJ President Hatoyama?
Mr. Aso 22 21 20 20
Mr. Hatoyama 42 42 40 41
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted Aug. 15-16 over the
telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis.
Respondents were chosen from among the nation's voting population on
a three-stage random-sampling basis. Households with one or more
eligible voters totaled 1,730. Valid answers were obtained from
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1,011 people (58%).
(3) Poll on 2009 general election
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 12) (Abridged)
August 18, 2009
Questions & Answers
(Figures are percentages)
Q: Are you interested in the upcoming general election for the House
of Representatives?
Yes 56.4
Yes to a certain extent 31.7
Not very interested 8.9
No 2.9
Don't know (D/K) + no answer (N/A) 0.1
Q: What do you weigh the most in the general election? Pick only
one.
Social security, such as pension and healthcare 38.3
Economic policy 29.0
Job security 10.7
Fiscal reconstruction 7.8
Education reform 6.4
Public security 0.7
Foreign relations, national security 2.2
Constitution reform 1.7
Other answers (O/A) 1.4
D/K+N/A 1.8
Q: To what degree have you seen and compared the manifestos
(campaign pledges) of various political parties for the upcoming
general election?
I have their manifestos or pamphlets and read them 4.7
I check their manifestos in the newspaper or on the internet 20.4
I try to watch or listen to media reports 54.1
I only know something from media reports 15.0
I'm not interested in their manifestos 5.4
D/K+N/A 0.5
Q: Do you support the Aso cabinet?
Yes 21.7
No 70.1
D/K+N/A 8.3
Q: When comparing Prime Minister Taro Aso and Democratic Party of
Japan President Yukio Hatoyama, who do you think is more appropriate
for prime minister?
Taro Aso 25.2
Yukio Hatoyama 45.9
D/K+N/A 28.9
Q: Do you think the Democratic Party of Japan is competent to run
the government?
Yes 41.2
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No 43.8
D/K+N/A 15.0
Q: Are you going to vote in the upcoming general election for the
House of Representatives?
Yes for sure 76.3
Probably yes 18.6
Probably no 3.0
No 1.6
D/K+N/A 0.5
Q: Which political party's candidate are you going to vote for in
your single-seat constituency?
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 18.7
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 35.8
New Komeito (NK) 3.1
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2.4
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1.3
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.3
Your Party (YP or Minna no To) 0.3
Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) 0.0
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0.1
Other political parties 0.2
Independent 0.6
Undecided 34.4
D/K+N/A 2.8
Q: Which political party are you going to vote for in your
proportional representation bloc?
LDP 16.2
DPJ 34.6
NK 5.2
JCP 3.3
SDP 1.8
PNP 0.7
YP 0.6
RC 0.0
NPN 0.2
Other political parties 0.3
Undecided 33.7
D/K+N/A 3.5
Q: What do you think is the desirable form of government?
LDP's single-party government 5.7
LDP-led coalition government 14.3
DPJ's single-party government 8.8
DPJ-led coalition government 25.8
LDP-DPJ grand coalition 16.5
New framework through political realignment 20.1
D/K+N/A 8.8
Q: Aside from the election, which political party do you usually
support?
LDP 28.5
DPJ 18.5
NK 4.2
JCP 2.6
TOKYO 00001917 006 OF 019
SDP 1.5
PNP 0.1
YP 0.1
RC 0.0
NPN 0.1
Happiness Realization Party (HRP or Kofuku Jitsugento) 0.1
Other political parties 0.0
None 43.3
D/K+N/A 1.1
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted by the Tokyo Shimbun
over a period of four days from Aug. 13 on a computer-aided random
digit dialing (RDD) basis. For the survey, a total of 3,600 persons
were sampled from among the nation's voting population at 300
locations on a weighted average basis.
(4) DPJ "bullish" while LDP "defensive" in Lower House election,
with DPJ fielding more candidates than LDP for the first time
MAINICHI (Top play) (Full)
August 19, 2009
Atsushi Nakamura, Nakae Ueno
The official start of campaigning for the 45h House of
Representatives election was announced on August 18, and the battle
for the election to "choose the administration" on August 30 has
begun. This will be the first general election after the opposition
parties came to control the House of Councillors in light of the
crushing defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the 2007
Upper House election. The formation of a DPJ-led coalition
administration after this election is becoming a real possibility.
This is also the first time that the DPJ is fielding more candidates
than the LDP. The bullishness of the DPJ, which is fielding three
times as many candidates as the original number of seats it held
before this election, is evident. The ruling parties' fierce attack
on the opposition DPJ in stump speeches also gives the impression of
a reversal of the position of the ruling and opposition parties.
In Hachioji City, Tokyo, on August 18 Prime Minister Taro Aso (LDP
president) gave a speech in which he criticized the DPJ. "Does the
DPJ manifesto have an economic growth strategy?" he asked. "You have
to decide based on policies." On the other hand, DPJ President Yukio
Hatoyama promised to implement the party's manifesto (campaign
pledges) in Osaka City and elsewhere and appealed for support to
"bring about a change of administration in order to create new
politics."
The LDP is fielding 37 candidates on its proportional representation
ticket, which is the smallest number ever. It is fighting a
"defensive" battle focusing on making sure that candidates who lose
in the single-seat constituencies are salvaged through the
proportional representation ticket.
In contrast, the DPJ is fielding 59 candidates who are running only
on the proportional representation ticket, breaking its record of 20
candidates in 2000. Its total number of candidates, together with
candidates running in the single-seat districts, surpasses that of
the LDP.
The offensive and defensive postures are also reflected in senior
party officials' campaign methods.
TOKYO 00001917 007 OF 019
In an unusual phenomenon, LDP faction leaders are now staying close
to their own constituencies, while the DPJ's Hatoyama, Secretary
General Katsuya Okada, and other executives have been stumping all
over the country even before the start of the official campaign
period. On August 18, Deputy President Ichiro Ozawa declared in the
fifth district of Hokkaido, the constituency of the LDP's former
Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura, that "this constituency
symbolizes the change of administration."
(5) Part 1 of series "Choice in 2009 Election": Need for a vision
for Japan's future
YOMIURI (Page 1) (Slightly abridged)
August 19, 2009
Akitoshi Muraoka, political editor
The main issue in the upcoming House of Representatives election,
the first in the last four years, is whether the coalition
government of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and New Komeito
should continue or whether a new administration led by the
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) should be formed.
Yomiuri Shimbun's readers' center has been receiving an
unprecedented number of comments on the Lower House election. Nearly
half of them are about the manifestos (campaign pledges).
A man from Tokyo wrote: "There is no indication at all of where they
are taking this country." Another man in Fukuoka Prefecture asked:
"What is the guarantee that the pledges will be implemented?"
The manifestos are "contracts" with the voters. Policies that will
be implemented if the party is voted into power are listed there.
This time, all the parties have put a lot of efforts into drawing up
the manifestos and the election is regarded as a manifesto-based
election. Yet, the voters are still anxious and fretful.
In his speech that kicked off the official campaign on August 18,
DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama called for "bringing about new politics
not relying on bureaucrats." In order to change the policymaking
process from the "bureaucratic cabinet system" to politician-led
decision-making, the DPJ proposes in its manifesto to abolish the
administrative vice ministers' meeting and create a "national
strategy bureau" reporting directly to the prime minister. However,
it is unclear what impact this will have on policy and how this will
benefit the people's lives.
At the party leaders' debate, Prime Minister Taro Aso said that an
increase in the consumption tax rate "will be possible as soon as
the economic growth rate reaches 2 percent." However, it is unclear
what improvements in pensions, medical and nursing services, and
employment will be made using the extra revenue from the consumption
tax. The whole picture of social security policy has not been
presented.
What will Japan's foreign and security policies be in a turbulent
international community and what responsibilities will Japan carry
out? The Lower House election is a critical opportunity to put
forward the basic national policies to the voters and ask them to
choose. However, both the LDP and the DPJ lack an overall political
ideology or philosophy transcending the manifesto.
TOKYO 00001917 008 OF 019
Without a blueprint for the future of the country and society, a
manifesto that contains only a spending list of rosy policies to
please the voters and numerical targets and roadmaps for such is not
a true manifesto. That is probably why the voters are anxious. If
they were presented with a blueprint for Japan's future, they would
be able to understand where this country is going and how their
lives are going to change.
Only 11 days are left in the campaign period before the election. We
would like to see all parties engage in comprehensive and
enthusiastic debates on their visions for this country if they take
over the reins of government.
(6) 27 former Lower House members retire from political community or
decide not to run in Lower House election
MAINICHI (Page 5) (Full)
August 19, 2009
A total of 27 former House of Representatives members, including
former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and former Lower House
Speaker Yohei Kono, have announced their intentions to retire from
the political community or not to run in the Aug. 30 general
election. This 27 includes 20 members of the Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP), the largest number, three independents, two Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ) members, and one each from the New Komeito and
Japanese Communist Party (JCP).
Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Mayumi Moriyama, an LDP member, was
forced to give up running in the Aug. 30 election although she once
had been picked as a rival candidate for former Administrative
Reform Minister Yoshimi Watanabe, the leader of Your Party.
Taizo Sugimura, one of the so-called Koizumi children who were
elected in the 2005 Lower House election, gave up on running in the
election because he failed to get LDP endorsement as a candidate for
the Hokkaido No. 1 district seat. Kuniko Inoguchi, former state
minister in charge of declining birthrate, who won her Lower House
seat in 2005 when she was at the top of the LDP's list for the Tokyo
proportional representation portion of the ballot, turned down the
LDP's offer because she was listed at a lower rank in the party's
list.
Former DPJ Vice President Tetsundo Iwakuni will retire from the
political community. Former Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii, who had
once decided not to run in the race, is running as a candidate in
the South Kanto proportional representation bloc of the ballot.
(7) Start of official campaign for Lower House election: Urgent need
for mid- and long-term strategy for mounting employment, fiscal
issues; Relationship with bureaucrats to change
MAINICHI (Page 4) (Full)
August 19, 2009
Osamu Hiraji
In the upcoming House of Representatives election, for which the
official campaign started on August 18, the political parties will
be put to test on how they will grapple with the mounting economic
issues, including their strategies to consolidate the economic
TOKYO 00001917 009 OF 019
recovery and put the Japanese economy on track for stable growth. A
review of the relationship of politicians with the central
government bureaucrats in Kasumigaseki and civil service reform is
also an issue in this election. This may become the turning point
for a drastic change in the government's policymaking mechanism.
The Japanese economy, which has contracted by over 10 percent since
last fall due to the worldwide financial and economic crisis, is
finally showing signs of recovery. The real GDP rose at an
annualized rate of 3.7 percent in the April-June quarter. However,
this was largely a result of the government's fiscal spending. The
risks for another downturn due to such factors as instability in the
international economy are still considerable. The economy is now at
a critical crossroads of whether the recovery will continue. The new
administration formed after this election will have to manage
economic policies to prevent another round of economic recession.
The employment situation in particular is deteriorating. The
unemployment rate was 5.4 percent in June, and the worst rate on
record of 5.5 percent is very likely to be surpassed. All parties
propose in their manifestoes (campaign pledges) to tighten
regulations on temporary workers, but the creation of new jobs will
also be an important issue.
Toward this end, a mid- and long-term strategy for the growth of
Japan's economy will be necessary. In the wake of the financial
crisis, the global economic environment has changed drastically.
There is now a strong opinion that "a return to the previous state
of all countries relying on excessive consumption in the United
States is unlikely." (securities firm analyst). The Japanese
economy, which has continued to grow relying on foreign demand, will
now need a new growth strategy, such as expansion of domestic
demand.
Various parties cite environment, medical and nursing services,
agriculture, forestry, and fisheries as the potential growth areas.
Bold shifts in existing policies, including agricultural
administration reforms, will be necessary to enhance the
competitiveness of these industries and make them into an engine for
growth.
On the other hand, fiscal health is deteriorating due to the
repeated economic pump priming packages and other factors. The
combined debts of the national and local governments will reach 800
trillion yen by the end of FY09, which is the worst among the
industrialized countries. Passing on the burden to future
generations will not only hinder mid- and long-term growth, but poor
fiscal health may also cause a tumble in government bond prices and
a sharp increase in long-term interest rates, thus applying brakes
on the economy.
The new administration will have to steer a delicate course between
securing funding for the ever increasing social security expenses
and economic stimulation measures and working toward fiscal
restructuring. While all parties agree on eliminating wasteful
spending in their manifestoes, they are divided on whether to use an
increase in the consumption tax as a stable source of revenue. The
ruling and opposition parties need to discuss how to deal with the
burden on the people across party lines.
Politicians to lead policymaking
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The manifestoes of the political parties all talk about civil
service reforms, such as "unified management of senior bureaucrats
in the ministries by the cabinet" or "eradication of amakudari
(golden parachutes)." All parties agree unanimously on changing from
"bureaucrat-led" to "politician-led" policymaking.
Under the LDP administration, the government has needed prior
approval from the party's policy divisions or the General Council in
the process of policymaking or drafting of laws. The bureaucrats
have played a leading role under this "dual structure" consisting of
the government and the LDP since they were responsible for
coordination with the party on policymaking.
However, the wishes of some zoku giin (Diet members lobbying for
special interests) and the concerned ministries and agencies tended
to be reflected heavily in policies. This system has been faulted
for preventing radical reforms due to old bonds with the zoku giin
or sectarian administration, which puts bureaucratic interest before
anything else.
The relationship between politicians and bureaucrats may change
dramatically after this election. The DPJ pledges to create a
"national strategy bureau" reporting directly to the prime minister
and implement bold reorganization to break away from bureaucratic
control. Even budget formulation, which is fundamental to public
administration, will be under political supervision, specifically by
the national strategy bureau. Meanwhile, the ruling parties, the LDP
and New Komeito, also pledge to "strengthen political leadership."
Furthermore, all major political parties pledge to abolish
amakudari. At present, all ministries have a "pyramid structure" and
officials are urged to resign ahead of their retirement age. It is
likely that the personnel system in central government offices will
be changed to enable officials to work until retirement age.
(8) Riding on tailwind, DPJ fields many neophytes, female
candidates
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Excerpts)
August 19, 2009
Takuji Nakata
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) fielded 164 neophyte candidates
in the forthcoming House of Representatives election, which is about
the same number as former Diet members (166). If this party becomes
the number one party after the election, it is possible that a
phenomenon similar to the "Koizumi children" of the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP), which won a landslide victory in the 2005
election, may occur. We analyzed the characteristics of the DPJ's
new candidates in order to project possible changes after the
election and found out that they are similar to the Koizumi
children.
The average age of the Koizumi children was 44.8 years (at the time
of their election), while the average age of the DPJ neophytes is 46
years, a bit older than the Koizumi children. Nineteen percent of
the Koizumi children were women, while there are 32 women (20%)
among the DPJ's new candidates. At this point, the ratio of women is
almost the same as the Koizumi children.
Similar trends can be found in their career backgrounds. According
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to Mainichi Shimbun's classification, the Koizumi children consisted
of (1) 20 local politicians
(24 %); (2) 10 each of bureaucrats and business people (12% each);
and (3) 9 secretaries of Diet members (11%). The data for the DPJ
neophytes is (1) 39 local politicians (24 %); (2) 16 each of
bureaucrats and secretaries of Diet members (10% each); and (3) 13
business people (8%). The two parties seem to be similar also with
regard to where they recruit their candidates, despite the slight
difference in percentages.
Among the Koizumi children, 36 were elected in the single-seat
districts, 33 lost in the single-seat districts but came to win
their seats on the proportional representation ticket, while 14 won
their seats solely on the proportional representation ticket.
On the other hand, 114 of the DPJ neophytes are running in the
single-seat districts, while 50 are running solely on the
proportional representation ticket.
Comparing all the LDP and DPJ candidates, the average age for the
LDP is 55.5 years, compared to 49.3 years for the DPJ. Fourteen
percent of DPJ candidates are women, while the figure is only 8% for
the LDP. The DPJ has actively fielded more women.
In terms of former bureaucrats running in the election, the ratio is
17% for the LDP and 12% for the DPJ. Overall, although a growing
number of former bureaucrats are becoming DPJ candidates, there are
still more bureaucrats-turned-politicians running on the LDP ticket,
since the LDP has been in power for many, many years.
(9) LDP, DPJ scurry to prepare candidate lists for proportional
representation segment in upcoming Lower House election
ASAHI (Page 2) (Excerpts)
August 18, 2009
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has no showcase candidates for
the upcoming House of Representatives election. However, the
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is going to field many such
candidates. There was a clear difference in the two parties'
candidate lists for the proportional representation section of the
ballot. The official campaign for the Lower House election will kick
off today. The LDP decided not to give special treatment to the
so-called Koizumi children, who were elected in the 2005 Lower House
election for the first time to the Diet. The DPJ's decision to field
many former lawmakers and newcomers as its candidates led to a delay
in coordination on its candidate lists.
LDP fails to field showcase candidates
"I can't do that," Health, Labor, and Welfare Minister Yoichi
Masuzoe told a senior LDP member who telephoned him on Aug. 16, a
day before the LDP revealed its candidate list for the upcoming
general election. He was urged to leave his Upper House seat and run
in the upcoming Lower House election at the top of the LDP's list
for the Tokyo proportional representation portion of the ballot.
Many LDP members expected him to run in the election, thinking that
in order to prevent their party's clashing defeat there would be no
other choice but to field Masuzoe.
There is also a move in the LDP to field Masuzoe as a candidate for
the party's presidential race scheduled for September.
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However, Masuzoe had not heard a word from the LDP executive until
Aug. 16. A cabinet minister deplored: "This shows the lack of the
party's governing ability."
Following the failure to field Miyazaki Governor Hideo
Higashikokubaru, the LDP was unable to file a showcase candidate in
the general election. As a result, no newcomers are filed at the top
of the LDP's list for proportional representation section of the
ballot.
Satsuki Katayama and Yukari Sato, who ran in the 2005 election as
assassins against candidates opposing postal privatization and who
were at the top of the LDP's lists for the proportional
representation blocs, were listed at the same ranks as candidates
running for both district seats and proportional representation
segment. It was difficult to decide on the treatment of Kuniko
Inoguchi (Tokyo bloc), Tadayoshi Nagashima (Hokuriku-Shinetsu bloc),
and Mitsue Kondo (Kinki bloc) because the then LDP executive had
promised to give them special treatment twice.
As a result, Inoguchi decided not to run in the election because she
was listed at the 23rd rank at the LDP's list for the Tokyo
proportional representation bloc of the ballot. Nagashima and Kondo
were at the top of the lists.
DPJ experiences difficulties up to last minute
"We haven't decided yet," said DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama on the
afternoon of Aug. 17 as he was leaving party headquarters after a
two-hour meeting with Secretary General Katsuya Okada and other
party leaders on the party's lists of candidates for the
proportional representation segment. Only Deputy President Ichiro
Ozawa remained in Tokyo and continued to work on drafting the
candidate lists.
The reason for the delay in coordination was the political wind
blowing in the DPJ's favor. Another reason is that Ozawa and other
DPJ leaders decided immediately before the start of official
campaign to substantially increase the number of candidates running
only for the proportional representation race.
(10) Security policy debate essential during election campaigning
SANKEI (Page 7) (Abridged)
August 19, 2009
Hisahiko Okazaki, former ambassador to Thailand
Both the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the main
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) have unveiled their
manifestos (campaign pledges).
In this essay, I will compare some points of the foreign and
security policies included in the two parties' manifestos.
Frankly speaking, the DPJ manifesto has no substance. "We will
positively undertake Japan's responsibilities," it reads, "while
sharing roles with the United States upon the foundation of an
independent diplomatic strategy in order to build close and equal
relations with the United States as the basis of Japan's foreign
policy."
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If "equal" relations means equal defense efforts by the two
countries, I can give the manifesto a high assessment as showing a
positive stance. But if it embodies the intention to act big in
dealing with the United States, that will do more harm than good.
Additionally, it is totally unclear what such words as "close,"
"independent" and "positive" actually mean.
There is only one point that is concrete: revision of the Status of
Forces Agreement (SOFA). But again, the DPJ manifesto stops short of
specifying where and how the pact should be revised. After all, the
SOFA with Japan is more favorable to the host nation with regard to
criminal court proceedings than are the SOFAs with South Korea and
Germany. That is why opposition in Japan has taken the form of a
battle against the U.S. bases themselves. But a battle against the
U.S. bases is incompatible with the DPJ's vow to build close
relations with the United States and to positively undertake Japan's
responsibilities.
In contrast, the LDP's manifesto is well-composed.
As a person who has been seeking a solution to the question of the
right to collective self-defense, I am particularly impressed by the
party's handling of this.
The notion of the right to collective self-defense is hard for the
general public to understand. The matter has often resulted in a
call for amendments to the
Constitution -- an approach unfeasible in the near future -- instead
of altering the government's interpretation of the Constitution.
The LDP manifesto is designed to allow Japan to intercept a missile
targeting Guam, Hawaii, or the continental United States, adding
that it is natural for U.S. and Japanese warships rush to the
defense of one another when they come under attack while conducting
missile-interception operations. If these two scenarios gain
acceptance, the root of the issue will be solved.
The Council on Security and Defense Capabilities recently produced a
report whose contents will likely be reflected in the new National
Defense Program Guidelines to be formulated this fall. Missile
interception, defense of U.S. warships, and a review of the three
principles on arms exports are all specified in the report.
If the LDP wins the upcoming election, all these proposals will
become an LDP government's policies thanks to the ongoing policy
debate. Now that the matter is open for discussion, if the DPJ wins
the election, is certain to find it difficult to adhere to its past
policy line in the face of criticism from the LDP, which would then
be the opposition party.
I hope the ongoing policy debate ignites a supra-partisan effort to
fundamentally reexamine security policy. Since the DPJ manifesto
vows nothing concrete, there is ample room for the party to take a
flexible stance. Further, the party will be relieved of heavy
restrictions if it believes the issue of the right to collective
self-defense is not a constitutional matter.
(11) What became of the DPJ's philosophy on agricultural
administration?
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FORESIGHT (Pages 90-91) (Slightly abridged)
September 2009
Haruhito Ichinokuchi, journalist
Early this spring, the Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives
(Zenchu), the headquarters of Japan's agricultural cooperatives
(JA), "banned a book," telling the cooperatives to "prevent" their
members from reading this book "to the extent possible." The book is
"Nokyo no Daizai (Serious Crimes of the Agricultural Cooperatives),"
which was published in January. It was written by Kazuhito
Yamashita, who had just retired from the Ministry of Agriculture,
Forestry, and Fisheries (MAFF) in 2008. Since he knows about
agricultural administration inside and out, the book contains sharp
criticisms of the "triangle of agricultural administration" -- the
collusion among MAFF bureaucrats, JA, and the Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP) politicians specializing in agricultural issues (norin
zoku). The JA is especially taken to task for selling overpriced
fertilizers, pesticides, and equipment to farmers and giving top
priority to its organizational interests rather than to the cause of
strengthening Japan's agriculture.
Zenchu is acting childishly in its attempt to "censor" the book, but
the three sides of the triangle equally share the blame.
Subsequently, the MAFF was plagued by the scandal over officials
doing labor union work during their official working hours, while
the LDP norin zoku have become busy campaigning for the general
election. The three sides of the triangle are desperately trying to
protect their own organizations and have forgotten all about
policies.
Crisis to surface right after new administration is inaugurated?
A crisis is looming for Japan's agriculture. It will be triggered by
the outcome of the new round of multilateral trade talks (Doha
Round) at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Since the financial
crisis last fall, many countries have begun to take protectionist
measures. The United States, for example, put forward economic
stimulation measures containing "buy America" clauses. In addition,
the Obama administration was elected under a pledge to review the
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). It is widely believed
that now is not the time for further trade liberalization, and it
will be difficult to reach an agreement in the Doha Round at an
early date.
However, the first G-8 joint communiqu issued with China, India and
other newly emerging economies at the summit in Italy from July 8
declared that a ministerial conference for the new round will be
held in September, aiming at reaching an agreement in 2010.
Therefore, there might be significant moves in the new round at a
time when Japan is still fragile following the inauguration of a new
administration.
"The talks almost reached an agreement in July 2008," reveals a
source knowledgeable about the negotiations. "The sticking point was
non-agricultural products. The rest was up to the U.S." Shinji
Hattori, former dean of Toyo University's Faculty of Economics who
is familiar with the WTO negotiations, has published a study
attesting to this.
According to the book "Steep Price Increase: The WTO and the 2008
U.S. Farm Bill (Kakaku Koto WTO to Amerika 2008 nen Nogyoho)" (Norin
TOKYO 00001917 015 OF 019
Tokei Shuppan), the United States' main interest is no longer the
agricultural sector. The key issues have shifted to reduction of
tariffs on mining and industrial products in developing countries,
particularly the liberalization of the market for industrial
machinery and electronic products. While China, India, Brazil, and
other emerging economies are "not obliged" to participate in the
negotiations, the U.S. is strongly demanding their participation,
thus coming into conflict with them.
However, China and the emerging economies have come to have a
stronger voice after the financial crisis. The U.S. may be at a
disadvantage if the negotiations drag on much longer. It is fully
possible that the Obama administration, which has so far given
priority to massive fiscal spending and monetary easing to deal with
the economic crisis, may aim for a quick conclusion to the Doha
Round in order to expand world trade as the second phase of its
economic stimulation policies.
The most important thing is that an agreement has virtually been
reached in agriculture. The Falconer Draft Text presented by the
chair of the WTO negotiating group on agriculture last year was very
tough on Japan's agriculture. With regard to rice, Japan will have
to accept either a major cut in tariff or a substantial expansion of
minimum access. If this is incorporated into the final new round
agreement without modification, Japan will face an excess supply of
rice and, therefore, a sharp decline in prices.
For sure, the Japanese government is not just sitting idly. In
anticipation of this situation, the MAFF under the Koizumi
administration engaged in repeated discussions and came up with the
"outline of rice policy reform" in December 2002 and the "basic
program for food, agriculture, and rural villages" of March 2005.
These were followed by such concrete legislative actions as the
amendment of the Staple Food Law of July 2003 and the introduction
of the "Sector-wide Farm Income Stabilization Program" in April
2007.
The essence of Koizumi's reform of agricultural administration was
the "privatization" of the virtually "nationalized" rice production
by the national government, the JA, and the farmers. The idea was
for the government to provide support only to "motivated and capable
farmers" while gradually reducing its involvement in production
adjustment, in order to cultivate farmers capable of surviving
international competition. A transition to autonomous production
adjustment by the producers, i.e. the JA, was supposed to take
place. However, with the ruling parties' crushing defeat in the July
2007 House of Councillors election, the policy of strengthening
government involvement has been "restored," as this magazine has
pointed out repeatedly.
While the politicians all talk about giving importance to
agriculture, they only think of their own election. The bureaucrats
could not care less whether policies make sense; they only care
about protecting their own organizations. Professor Emeritus Naomi
Saeki of Tokyo University, an authority on agronomics who has been
deeply involved with agricultural administration from the standpoint
of a scholar, expresses his indignation in his book "Kome Seisaku no
Shuen (The Demise of Rice Policy)" (Norin Tokei Shuppan), published
last April. He laments that rice has been transformed from a
politicized crop in the struggle over rice prices to a crop used for
political maneuvering. He points out that voluntary production
adjustment under the rice acreage reduction (gentan) program is
TOKYO 00001917 016 OF 019
actually the first step toward the abolition of production
adjustment. He fiercely opposes optional gentan as backsliding.
Such disappointment is common among scholars who have been watching
agricultural administration for many years. In his book "Nihon no
Nogyo wa Seicho Sangyo ni Kaerareru (Japan's Agriculture Can be
Changed Into a Growth Industry)" (Yosensha) published in June, Ikkan
Oizumi, vice president of Miyagi University, also laments the
straying of agricultural administration, blaming this on "the barter
of votes and rice" under a cabinet system consisting of zoku giin
(Diet members lobbying for special interests)
LDP "reversion"
In order not to repeat the above mistakes, researchers all point to
the need to dismantle the "triangle of agricultural administration"
and engage in a thoroughgoing policy debate on the ideology and
future of agricultural administration in the forthcoming general
election.
However, the LDP's manifesto (campaign pledges) shows no signs of
such an ideology. It is so sweeping that one can only conclude the
party is desperate. If one searches for policy direction in the
pledges, the distinguishing feature is a degree of "reversion" to
old policies worse than what Saeki fears. For example, the LDP is
"removing acreage and age requirements and offering aid to all
motivated farmers," putting an end to Koizumi's agricultural
administration reforms. The LDP also proposes to "enhance measures"
for rice production adjustment, moving in the direction of boosting
gentan.
In comparison, the Democratic Party of Japan's policy was once
underpinned by a philosophy. I say "once" because its manifesto
represents an obvious regression from its "Policy Index 2009, the
basis of the manifesto.
For example, the Index's proposal for "creating the conditions for
active formation of agricultural cooperative organizations" is
absent from the manifesto. This is supposed to be a policy allowing
the formation of specialized agricultural cooperatives of
large-scale farmers to compete with the monopolistic regional JAs,
in order to dismantle the "triangle" and let the JAs once again
dedicate themselves to their original objective of agricultural
development. Such is also Yamashita's longstanding recommendation,
but this has probably been removed from the manifesto because of the
anticipated opposition of JA.
Furthermore, the original manifesto entry on "concluding a free
trade agreement (FTA) with the U.S. and promoting the liberalization
of trade and investment" was changed to "promoting" (negotiations
for) an FTA owing to strong opposition from the rural
constituencies. While Tatsuo Hirano, deputy secretary general of the
DPJ's headquarters for the revival of agriculture, forestry, and
fisheries, explains that "rice, livestock and dairy products, and
other key products will be treated as exceptions in the negotiations
with the U.S.," it is unlikely that the U.S. will agree to FTA
negotiations with so many exceptions.
Even if the U.S. accepts rice and other products as "exceptions,"
FTAs normally allow "exceptions" only up to 10 percent of trade
items, which means exceptions will be limited by both trade volume
and tariff line calculations. Too many exceptions will constitute a
TOKYO 00001917 017 OF 019
violation of WTO rules, so negotiations are going to be really
tough. As it is about to capture political power, the DPJ's
manifesto is beginning to lose its philosophical base.
On the other hand, the DPJ's manifesto also calls for "raising the
food self-sufficiency ratio." Is this compatible with a Japan-U.S.
FTA? Does this not mean giving up on the viability of Japanese
agriculture as an "industry"? If a sharp decline in the prices of
agricultural products is allowed while paying income subsidies to
farmers in the red, consumers will indeed enjoy cheaper food prices
in the short term. However, the fiscal burden will be in the
vicinity of 3 trillion yen, which is equivalent to the current value
of the total domestic production of all major crops. This will not
be acceptable to the taxpayers unless Japan follows the Swiss
example, separating agriculture from ordinary industries and
redefining it as "regional development."
Agricultural administration is in a state of extreme confusion, and
Japan is directly facing external pressure for trade liberalization.
As the media outlets occupy themselves with reporting scandals and
the election, books by researchers expressing a strong sense of
crisis are pointing the right direction for agricultural
administration. The question is whether the political authorities
will be able to implement the proposals.
(12) April-June real GDP grows 3.7% on rise in exports to Asia
NIKKEI (Top Play) (Excerpts)
August 17, 2009
The nation's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by a
price-adjusted 0.9% and an annualized 3.7% in the April-June quarter
in real terms from the previous quarter, marking the first growth in
five quarters, according to preliminary data released by the Cabinet
Office today. The positive growth is attributed to a pickup in
exports and public investment in addition to the government's
additional economic stimulus measures. Consumer spending also grew
for the first time in three quarters thanks to tax breaks for
eco-friendly car owners and other measures. This figure, however, is
7.5% less than the highest ever growth rate recorded in the
January-March period of last year. Given this, it will take more
time until the economy emerges from its worst period in the postwar
period.
Economic measures contribute to boosting public investment, consumer
spending
The growth rate in the April-June period was far larger than the
nation's potential growth rate of about 1%. According to the average
estimate of private-sector research institutions surveyed by QUICK
Corp, the economy likely expanded at an annualized rate of 3.4%. The
real growth rate was 0.3 points more than this estimate. But the
nominal growth figure shrank 0.2% (an annualized negative 0.7%
growth rate), marking the fifth consecutive quarterly drop.
The Cabinet Office also revised upward the growth rate for last
year. As a result, the post-war worst record of GDP growth is a
minus 3.5% growth, a record slump of 13.5 percentage points, in the
October-December period in 2008, followed by a 13.1% contraction in
the January-March period in 1974 and an 11.7% drop in the
January-March period in 2009.
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The GDP rise in the April-June period was largely due to an upturn
in overseas demand. Exports of electronic parts and other products
to China climbed by 6.3% from the same period a year ago although in
the January-March quarter, such shipments posted a 22.5% yearly
drop. Foreign demand pushed up overall growth 1.6 percentage
points.
Expanded investment by the central and local governments also served
to buoy quarter-to-quarter growth. Public investment was up 8.1%,
marking the highest record after a rise of 10.3% was recorded in the
October-December period in 1998. Government spending was down just
0.3% as the number of civil servants was reduced, but an increase in
spending by all government agencies pushed up the growth figure 0.3
percentage points.
Consumer spending, which accounts for less than 60% of the nation's
GDP, increased 0.8%, marking the first positive growth since the
July-September quarter in 2008. Consumption of durable goods such as
automobiles and televisions grew 6.6%, pushing up the growth rate by
0.3 percentage points. But it is certainly true that drops in
commodity prices boosted GDP growth, and so the nominal growth of
consumption stayed at only 0.3%.
Meanwhile, capital investment declined 4.3% from the same period a
year ago, marking the fifth consecutive quarterly drop. Housing
investment deteriorated 9.5% as housing starts for condominiums fell
sharply, the second consecutive quarter of decline. The drops in
these sectors had a downward impact of 1.0 percentage points.
The GDP deflator increased for the third consecutive quarter,
posting a 0.5% growth. But the domestic demand deflator showed a
1.7% decline, a further drop from the previous quarter.
(13) Futenma relocation: 344 people file case against Japanese
Government today requesting another environmental assessment
Okinawa Times (Page 29) (Full)
August 19, 2009
Regarding the environmental assessment associated with the
construction of a replacement facility for the U.S. military's
Futenma Air Station, 344 plaintiffs from inside and outside Okinawa
Prefecture will file a case against the Japanese Government on
August 19 claiming that the Okinawa Defense Bureau, which was the
implementing organization (of the assessment) did not follow the
legal process in preparing documents describing methods and
preparation. The plaintiffs will demand a confirmation of the
Japanese Government's obligation to do another assessment procedure
and compensation for damage.
The current assessment law does not include provisions on the legal
process for making complaints on flaws in the procedure. The
plaintiffs, therefore, based their appeal on the "action on
confirmation" stipulated in the Administrative Case Litigation Act.
According to the defense group, it is the first appeal in Japan to
condemn a flaw in the procedure while an assessment is still in
progress.
(14) Okinawa Municipal Council for Military Land Conversion and Base
Problems to request cancellation of live-fire drills - Okinawa
Governor joins the council for first time to reveal stray bullet
incident
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Okinawa Times (Page 2) (Full)
August 19, 2009
Okinawa Municipal Council for Military Land Conversion and Base
Problems (chaired by Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima), which is
comprised of leaders of municipalities hosting U.S. military bases
in Okinawa Prefecture, held an ordinary general meeting for 2009 in
Naha City on August 18. In response to a request from Kin Town and
Uruma Town, the council decided to request the Governments of Japan
and the United States to provide full disclosure of the stray bullet
incident that took place in Igei district, Kin Town, and the
suspension of live-fire training at Camp Hansen until the incident
is fully disclosed and investigated. The council will also request
the cancellation of parachute drop training at Tsuken Jima Training
Area (Uruma City).
Moreover, Okinawa City and Naha City requested management of dogs
owned by U.S. military-related personnel and putting flight
restrictions on U.S. military aircraft over crowded residential
areas. The council decided to coordinate it efforts before making
requests.
Okinawa Governor Hirokazu Nakaima participated in the general
meeting for the first time at the request of municipal leaders. It
was decided that the governor will accompany the council when it
makes petitions to the Government of Japan and the United States.
Governor Nakaima commented on making requests to the government,
saying, "It (requests) goes in (government's) ear and out the other.
Can't we influence the government in a way that the government will
have no choice but respond? We should better set up a strategy
committee. It is okay to open a Pandora's Box."
The council confirmed that it will make an eight-point request
including the return of firing ranges in Tori Shima and Kume Jima
(in Kume Jima Town). "A request to promote the settlement of various
issues stemming from (U.S.) military bases," which the council
delivers to the Government of Japan and the United States annually,
will be included in the request.
The council usually makes petition visits to offices and
organizations related to the governments of Japan and the United
States within and outside Okinawa Prefecture in around August to
September. This year the council plans to make petition visits after
mid-October, taking the general election and local assembly
schedules into consideration. The council is also considering
visiting U.S. Military's Futenma Air Station and Iwakuni Air Station
after November.
The board of trustees comprised of some council members has been
abolished. Naha Mayor Takeshi Onaga was elected as the vice chairman
(of the council) to replace former Uruma City Mayor Tsuneo Chinen,
who retired voluntarily.
ZUMWALT