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Cablegate: Japanese Morning Press Highlights 08/31/09

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 17 TOKYO 001993

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA;
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION;
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE;
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN,
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR;
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA

SUBJECT: JAPANESE MORNING PRESS HIGHLIGHTS 08/31/09

Index:
House of Representatives election special

1) Top headlines
2) Editorials

3) LDP suffers historical defeat, winning only 119 seats, a loss of
181, while Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) reaches sole majority of
308, gaining 191 (Yomiuri)
4) Prime Minister Aso to step down as party president to take
responsibility for LDP's massive defeat (Nikkei)
5) Turnout rate in the election was a high 69.28; Tokyo was 66
PERCENT (Yomiuri)
6) Big names tumble in the LDP as strongholds fall across the
country (Yomiuri)
7) Former Prime Minister Kaifu loses his seat, so does Komeito head
Ota (Asahi)
8) New Komeito loses big in small districts (Yomiuri)
9) Ota to quit as head of the New Komeito (Yomiuri)
10) Finance Minister Yosano and Seiko Noda among LDP bigwigs who
lost (Asahi)
11) But Yosano revived in the proportional race (Asahi)
12) People's New Party Watanuki, who campaigned against postal
reform, loses his seat (Asahi)
13) JCP keeps nine seats in Lower House election; supporting DPJ
from the sideline backfires (Mainichi)
14) Small parties survive: Hiranuma's group and Yoshimi Watanabe's
"Your Party" (Mainichi)
15) Tokyo proportional representation bloc: DPJ increases by two to
eight seats (Yomiuri)

Exit polls:
16) Yomiuri and NTV joint poll shows 50 PERCENT of unaffiliated
voters opted for the DPJ (Yomiuri)
17) Kyodo poll: Half of the unaffiliated voters favored DPJ
candidates; 30 PERCENT of LDP supporters went over to the DPJ side
(Nikkei)
18) Asahi poll shows the DPJ's gender gap is over with women voting
in droves for the party (Asahi)

19) Coalition talks with the DPJ will now begin (Asahi)

U.S.-Japan relations:
20) DPJ as the ruling party to make good on its promise to revisit
Futenma relocation and revise the U.S.-Japan Status of Forces
Agreement (Nikkei)
21) Concern in Washington about the DPJ's brand of foreign policy
(Tokyo Shimbun)
22) U.S. government stresses continuity of alliance relations with
the new DPJ government (Sankei)
23) U.S. will try to build confidence measures with the Hatoyama
government (Asahi)
24) Close relations to be the continued aim of the U.S government
but fear of the future of security ties lies deep (Asahi)

Articles:

1) TOP HEADLINES

Asahi:
(1) Landslide victory for DPJ, change of administration: Respond to
the overwhelming popular will

TOKYO 00001993 002 OF 017

Mainichi:
(1) The people changed Japan: A change of administration in the
spirit of the Meiji Restoration

Yomiuri:
(1) DPJ administration now a reality: Meet the expectations for
change and shoulder the heavy responsibility

Nikkei:
(1) The people bet on a DPJ administration under Hatoyama

Sankei:
(1) DPJ administration: Protect national interest with a pragmatic
line; conservative revival is LDP's path to survival

Tokyo Shimbun:
(1) The wheel of history turned: DPJ wins landslide victory; LDP
defeated

Akahata:
(1) Historic verdict: the LDP-New Komeito administration forced to
step down

2) EDITORIALS

Asahi:
DPJ wins 308 seats, change of administration: Hatoyama to become
prime minister

Mainichi:
DPJ wins 308 seats, captures political power; PM Hatoyama to be
elected at Lower House; First full-fledged change of administration
in history

Yomiuri:
DPJ wins 308 seats, change of administration; LDP wins only 119
seats, suffers historic defeat

Nikkei:
DPJ wins 308 seats, change of administration; Hatoyama cabinet to be
formed mid-September; LDP suffers historic defeat

Sankei:
The day that changed history: DPJ wins landslide history; LDP
suffers crushing defeat

Tokyo Shimbun:
DPJ wins 308 seats, change of administration; LDP wins only 119
seats, suffering unprecedented defeat

Akahata:
LDP, New Komeito suffer historic defeat; People pronounce their
verdict

3) DPJ wins 308 seats, achieving change of government; LDP wins only
119 seats, suffering historic defeat

YOMIURI (Top play) (Abridged)
August 31, 2009

The 45th House of Representatives election, where the main issue was

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choosing an new administration, took place on August 30. The results
of the tally showed that the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) had won
308 seats, way above the majority (241 seats). The party has
succeeded in capturing political power. The Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP) is now the second party for the first time since its founding.
Prime Minister Taro Aso announced his resignation as party president
on the evening of August 30. This will be the first time for Japan
to have a non-LDP administration in 16 years, since the Hosokawa
administration. This is also the first time that the number one
opposition party has won a majority of seats single-handedly and
achieved a change of administration under the current Constitution,
signaling that Japanese politics has reached a major turning point.
DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama is moving immediately to prepare for
administration transition and will be conducting policy
consultations with the Social Democratic Party and the People's New
Party toward forming a coalition government. A new administration
with Hatoyama as prime minister will be launched in mid-September.

4) Prime minister Aso to step down as LDP president

NIKKEI (Page 1) (Full)
August 31, 2009

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has tumbled from its position as
the number one party in the Lower House, losing roughly 60 percent
of the 300 seats it held until the official announcement of the
election. Prime Minister Taro Aso (also LDP president) during an NHK
TV program yesterday evening announced his decision to step down as
LDP president, noting: "I must seriously acknowledge the voices of
the people and make a fresh start by humbly reflecting on the
results. I must take responsibility."

LDP Secretary General Hiroyuki Hosoda on the same evening told the
prime minister that the three top party executives and acting
secretary general will all step down.

The prime minister, appearing on a Fuji TV program, said, "I would
like to call an LDP presidential election involving local party
members and friends of the party after the Diet nomination for prime
minister." Hosoda during a press conference revealed that the party
is planning to hold a presidential election in late September. Some
members, however, take the view that it would be desirable to elect
the new president before the Diet nomination for prime minister at
the special Diet session.

This is the LDP's first fall from power since the establishment in
1993 of the non-LDP coalition government led by Morihiro Hosokawa as
prime minister, when the party lost its majority in the Lower House
election. At that time, the LDP was still the top party in the Lower
House even after the election. It snatched power from the Hosoakwa
administration by forming a coalition with the Socialist Party and
the New Party Sakigake in 1994.

5) Voter turnout at record high of 69.28 PERCENT

YOMIURI (Page 2) (Full)
August 31, 2009

Voter turnout for the 45th House of Representatives election
yesterday was a record 69.28 PERCENT , more than the 67.51 PERCENT
in the previous Lower House election in 2005, according to an
estimate by the Yomiuri Shimbun. The turnout in single-seat

TOKYO 00001993 004 OF 017


constituencies was the highest ever since the mixed electoral system
of single-seat and proportional representation constituencies was
introduced in 1996,

6) LDP loses seats in Lower House election even in traditional
strongholds

YOMIURI (Page 4) (Abridged)
August 31, 2009

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has suffered a historic debacle
and many of its "heavyweights," such as faction leaders and former
cabinet ministers, have lost in the election. The LDP lost House of
Representatives seats even in single-seat districts that used to be
its traditional strongholds.

Taku Yamasaki, chairman of the Yamasaki faction and a former vice
president, lost in the second district of Fukuoka. Takashi Sasagawa,
chairman of the General Council and one of the party's top three
executives, lost in the second district of Gunma. Among former
cabinet ministers, Shoichi Nakagawa, former minister of finance and
financial services, lost in the 11th district of Hokkaido; Norihiko
Akagi, former agriculture minister, lost in the first district of
Ibaraki; Yuya Niwa, former health minister, lost in the sixth
district of Ibaraki; Hajime Funada, former Economic Planning Agency
director general, lost in the first district of Tochigi; Yoshinobu
Shimamura, former agriculture minister, lost in the 16th district of
Tokyo; Mitsuo Horiuchi, former minister of international trade and
industry, lost in the second district of Yamanashi; Hakuo
Yanagisawa, former health minister, lost in the third district of
Shizuoka; Taro Nakayama, former foreign minister, lost in the 18th
district of Osaka; Seiichi Ota, former agriculture minister, lost in
the third district of Fukuoka; and Fumio Kyuma, former defense
minister, lost in the second district of Nagasaki.

7) Ex-PM Kaifu, New Komeito leader Ota, other political heavyweights
lose seats in Lower House election;

ASAHI (Page 1) (Full)
August 31, 2009

The following prominent candidates lost in the House of
Representatives election:

Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)

Toshiki Kaifu, former prime minister
Shoichi Nakagawa, former finance minister and minister for financial
services
Taku Yamasaki, former LDP vice president
Fumio Kyuma, former defense minister
Takashi Sasagawa, chairman of the General Council
Mitsuo Horiuchi, former chairman of the General Council
Norihiko Akagi, former agriculture minister
Hakuo Yanagisawa, former health minister
Yuya Niwa, former health minister
Koji Omi, former finance minister
Takashi Fukaya, former minister of economy, trade, and industry
Yoshinobu Shimamura, former agriculture minister
Shunichi Suzuki, former environment minister
Satsuki Katayama, former Finance Ministry division chief
Yukari Sato, former foreign securities firm employee

TOKYO 00001993 005 OF 017

New Komeito

Akihiro Ota, party leader
Kazuo Kitagawa, secretary general
Tetsuzo Fuyushiba, former minister of land, infrastructure,
transport, and tourism

People's New Party

Tamisuke Watanuki, party leader
Hisaoki Kamei, secretary general

8) New Komeito defeated in all single-seat constituencies

YOMIURI (Page 2) (Excerpts)
August 31, 2009

The New Komeito suffered the most crushing defeat in the House of
Representatives election since the party was established, with all
eight of its candidates in single-seat constituencies defeated,
including President Ota and Secretary General Kitagawa. Taking the
view that the party got caught up in the adverse wind against the
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), some party members have begun to
call for a review of its relations with the LDP.

Ota stated at party headquarters in the early hours today: "I keenly
sense my responsibility for the election results. I am determined to
do my best to reconstruct the party. I would like to discuss with
other senior members what steps we should take to that end."
However, with only party members elected under the proportional
representation segment as Lower House members, the New Komeito will
inevitably find it difficult to pick new executive members.

In the election campaign, the junior ruling party underscored, in
unison with the LDP, the ruling coalition's achievements and ability
to take responsibility, in addition to criticizing the Democratic
Party of Japan's lack of ability to govern. But senior party
members, including Ota, had to give priority to their own election
campaigning in the face of a strong adverse wind and had no leeway
to support other candidates (of the LDP). Predicting such a
situation, the party had considered prior to the official
announcement of the election the possibility of also putting the
names of Ota and Kitagawa on its proportional representation list,
but this idea was dropped, reflecting voices of concern about "a
lack of seriousness."

The New Komeito intends to continue its joint struggle with the LDP
as an opposition party in Diet affairs and on other occasions for
the time being. With an eye toward the House of Councillors election
next summer, however, some party members have begun to suggest
reviewing its current relations with the LDP, with one member
remarking: "There is no such phrase as 'opposition coalition'." A
senior party member said: "There were times in which we were caught
in dilemmas because we had to compromise with the LDP over security
and other policies after we formed a coalition in 1999. Looking back
on the past ten years, we will discuss from scratch what our party
should be from now on."

9) New Komeito secures record low Lower House seats; Ota to resigns
as party head


TOKYO 00001993 006 OF 017


ASAHI (Page 3) (Excerpts)
August 31, 2009

The New Komeito suffered a historic defeat in Sunday's House of
Representatives election, securing a record low of 25 seats, falling
below the 31 seats the party had held before the dissolution of the
Lower House. Both Party Head Akihiro Ota and Secretary General Kazuo
Kitagawa were defeated in the election. The party is certain to be
forced to reflect on the past ten years of its coalition government
with the Liberal Democratic Party. The party is likely to decide
whether to support the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) or the
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) on an issue-by-issue case.

Ota told the press corps early this morning: "I feel acutely my
responsibility for the results of the election," indicating his
intention to resign as chief representative of the New Komeito. The
names of Vice Representative Yoshihisa Inoue, Policy Research
Council Chairman Natsuo Yamaguchi, Environment Minister Tetsuo
Saito, and Deputy Chief Representative Toshiko Yatsu are being
floated as candidates to succeed Ota as the next chief
representative.

Since Ota has said that his party will not form an opposition
coalition, the New Komeito is certain to distance itself from the
LDP.

10) LDP's Yosano, Noda defeated in district races, but secure
proportional representation seats

ASAHI (Page 19) (Excerpts)
August 31, 2009

Incumbent ministers are generally believed to have an advantage in
elections, but Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano, 71, was defeated by
Banri Kaieda, 60, a candidate on the Democratic Party of Japan's
(DPJ) ticket in the Tokyo No. 1 district race in Sunday's House of
Representatives election. State Minister for Consumer Affairs Seiko
Noda, 46, was also defeated by a new DPJ candidate. The two cabinet
ministers were elected in the proportional representation segment.

Education Minister Ryu Shionoya, 59, was defeated in the Shizuoka
No. 8 district election, but secured a proportional representation
seat.

Also Motoo Hayashi, state minister for Okinawa, Northern
Territories, and disaster management, who ran in the Chiba No. 10
district, was defeated.

Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Tsutomu Sato was
defeated in the Tochigi No. 4 district.

11) Tokyo proportional representation bloc: DPJ increases by two to
eight seats; LDP's Yosano restored in the proportional race

ASAHI (Page 16) (Full)
August 31, 2009

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won eight seats (six in the
previous election) in the Tokyo proportional representation block
race of yesterday's House of Representatives election, in which the
DPJ fought to bring about a change of government. The DPJ had
suffered a crushing defeat in the 2005 Lower House election, which

TOKYO 00001993 007 OF 017


focused on postal privatization, securing about 700,000 votes less
than the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The DPJ, however,
outnumbered the LDP yesterday's general election.

Following Mitsuaki Takeda, a new-face candidate, and Eiko Ishige, a
former lawmaker, who ran only in the DPJ proportional representation
segment of the ballot, Koki Kobayashi won a seat, returning to the
national politics. Kobayashi, who had been expelled from the LDP due
to his opposition to postal privatization, was included in the DPJ's
list of candidates for the proportional representation section
immediately before the start of the official campaign for the
general election because he failed to run in the poll as an
independent in the Tokyo No. 10 single-seat district.

Meanwhile, the LDP secured only five Tokyo proportional
representation seats (seven in the previous race). The LDP
leadership gave 22 candidates running also in single-seat district
races the highest ranking on its proportional representation list.
Such candidates as Kaoru Yosano, who ran in the Tokyo No. 1 district
race, and Yuriko Koike, who ran in the Tokyo No. 10 district, were
elected in the proportional representation segment of the vote
although they lost their single-seat elections because their margins
of defeat were high.

The New Komeito kept two seats, which the party has had since 2000,
as Yosuke Takagi and Michiyo Takagi were elected.

The Japanese Communist Party (JCP) won one seat (one in the previous
election) although it had put four candidates its list. Only Ryo
Kasai won a seat. The Your Party also secured only one seat. Mito
Kakizawa gained a Your Party propositional representation seat even
though he was defeated in the Tokyo No. 15 district race. The Social
Democratic Party, which had won one seat in the 2005 election, won
no seat.

12) PNP leader Watanuki defeated in Lower House election

ASAHI (Page 2) (Excerpts)
August 31, 2009

The People's New Party (PNP), which was established in 2005 mainly
by former Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmakers opposing postal
privatization, fought an uphill battle in yesterday's House of
Representatives election, as its leader Tamisuke Watanuki and
Secretary General Hisaoki Kamei were defeated. Kamei told reporters
last night: "We failed to acknowledge the public's anger toward the
LDP. Votes went to the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)."

Watanuki, who ran only for the proportional representation segment
of the ballot, did not use the expression "change of government" in
his stump speeches, thinking that using such an expression would
benefit the DPJ alone. He repeatedly called on voters to summarize
the Koizumi-Takenaka reform program.

The PNP, which is expected to form a coalition government with the
DPJ, intends to demonstrate its political imprint in the House of
Councillors, in which the DPJ does not have a single-party majority,
maintaining its relationship with the DPJ.

13) JCP keeps nine seats in Lower House election; supporting DPJ
from the sideline backfires


TOKYO 00001993 008 OF 017


MAINICHI (Page 4) (Abridged)
August 31, 2009

Daisuke Kondo

The Japanese Communist Party (JCP) won nine seats in the House of
Representatives election, which is the same as the number of seats
it held before the election, and is pleased with the crushing defeat
suffered by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). However, there is
also no denying that its presence has been weakened by the strategy
of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) to ask the voters to choose
an administration. It can be said that the JCP's decision not to
field candidates in single-seat districts where it used to have
candidates in order to support a change of administration by the DPJ
from the sidelines backfired. At the height of the election
campaign, it resorted to publicizing its independent role as a
"constructive opposition party," which will adopt an issue-by-issue
approach toward a "DPJ administration," to salvage its campaign, but
this came too late. While the party is able to keep the same number
of seats, it failed to expand its influence.

"The tide turned against the politics conducted by the LDP and New
Komeito," stressed JCP Chairman Kazuo Shii on a late night NHK TV
program on August 30. "In our role as a constructive opposition
party we would like to cooperate with the DPJ administration in
doing good things and oppose firmly the bad things. We will make
efforts to move politics forward."

The JCP reduced the number of its candidates in the single-seat
districts to 152, which was nearly half of the number (275) in the
previous election in 2005. It regarded the election as what Shii
called "a verdict on saying goodbye to the LDP-New Komeito
administration." The JCP, in effect, facilitated the flow of JCP
votes to the DPJ in constituencies in which it did not field
candidates.

Its goal was to win 6.5 million proportional representation votes
and increase the party's number of seats in all 11 proportional
representation blocs. Party leaders stumped nationwide, targeting
voters who wanted to say no to the LDP-New Komeito administration
but felt unsure about a DPJ administration.

14) "Your Party," Hiranuma Group fail to become pivot of realignment
of political forces

MAINICHI (Page 4) (Full)
August 31, 2009

Daisuke Nohara

With the landslide victory won by the Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ), "Your Party," the new party established by former
Administrative Reform Minister Yoshimi Watanabe and others, and the
independent "Hiranuma Group," created by former Minister of Economy,
Trade, and Industry Takeo Hiranuma, are now forced to rethink their
strategy. Their goal had been to hold the casting vote and become
the pivot of the realignment of political forces if the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) and the DPJ were equally matched. However,
with the DPJ's control of a vast majority of seats, it will be
difficult for these two groups to make their presence felt.

Your Party campaigned on a platform of "change of administration

TOKYO 00001993 009 OF 017


plus realignment of political forces." Watanabe, its leader, and
Kenji Eda won seats in single-seat districts. Koichi Yamauchi won on
the proportional representation ticket, while Keiichiro Asao and
Mito Kakizawa won seats on the proportional representation ticket
after losing in the single-seat districts, making a total of five
seats. However, with the DPJ winning over 300 seats, the party's
prospects are dim. In the latter half of the campaign, Watanabe was
trying to make the party available to the DPJ. "If the DPJ asks us
to discuss forming an administration, we will oblige," he remarked.
However, this was ignored by the DPJ because, according to DPJ
Secretary General Katsuya Okada, "(Your Party's) intentions are
unclear."

"We had not expected the DPJ to be this strong, remarked a
distressed official of the Hiranuma Group. "We are at a loss as to
what to do from now." The group's goal had been to serve as a "third
pole" to attract the votes of those who are dissatisfied with both
the LDP and the DPJ and to form a new party by recruiting members
from other parties after the election. However, out of its 17
candidates, only three were elected - Hiranuma, Ryuji Koizumi
(Saitama 11th district) and Minoru Kiuchi (Shizuoka 7th district).
The number of elected members does not even meet the minimum (five
Diet members) required by the Public Offices Election Law for
recognition as a political party, so the founding of a new party
will be difficult.

15) Voter turnout for Lower House election in Tokyo at 66.37 PERCENT


YOMIURI (Page 16) (Excerpts)
August 31, 2009

Voter turnout in the small constituencies in Tokyo for the House of
Representatives election yesterday was 66.37 PERCENT on average
(with 66.20 PERCENT of all male eligible voters and 66.54 PERCENT
of female voters), up 0.78 percentage points over the previous
election in September 2005 (65.59 PERCENT ). According to an
announcement by the Tokyo Metropolitan Electoral Management
Committee, the number of eligible voters as of yesterday was
10,601,391, of whom 7,035,959 voters cast ballots.

The turnout yesterday was higher than that for the previous
election, in which the Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide
victory and for which the turnout marked the highest figure in the
Heisei period. The highest turnout was marked in Tokyo No. 12
Constituency (the western part of Kita and Adachi wards) at 69.06
PERCENT , while the lowest turnout was 61.94 PERCENT in Tokyo No.
16 Constituency (the south-central part of Edogawa Ward).

1.5 times more voters take advantage of early voting system

According to an aggregate announced yesterday by the Tokyo
Metropolitan Electoral Management Committee, 1,454,116 voters cast
ballots in Tokyo as of Aug. 29. This figure is 1.54 times more than
in the previous Lower House election in 2005.

16) Over 50 PERCENT of floating voters cast their votes for DPJ

YOMIURI (Page 4) (Abridged)
August 31, 2009

A surging crowd of floating voters with no particular party

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affiliation cast their votes for the Democratic Party of Japan, the
Yomiuri Shimbun found from its exit poll conducted yesterday with
NTV-affiliated stations. Among those floating or unaffiliated
voters, more than 50 PERCENT cast their votes for the DPJ both in
their single-seat constituencies and in their proportional
representation blocs.

In the exit poll, floating voters with no particular party
affiliation accounted for 21 PERCENT of all those polled.

Among those floating voters, 52 PERCENT cast their votes for the
DPJ in their proportional representation blocs, with 16 PERCENT
voting for the LDP. The difference was 36 points.

Urban districts are said to have comparatively many floating voters,
who tend to be critical of the Liberal Democratic Party. In an exit
poll at the time of the election for the House of Representatives in
2003, the DPJ was 35 points higher than the LDP. In the last
election held in 2005 over the privatization of state-run postal
services, however, the gap narrowed to 6 points.

This time, the proportion of those who voted for the DPJ among
floating voters rose 14 points. Meanwhile, the proportion of those
who voted for the LDP among floating voters dropped 16 points. This
can be taken as a major factor of the DPJ's overwhelming victory.
Among floating voters, 8 PERCENT voted for the Japanese Communist
Party, 6 PERCENT for the Social Democratic Party, 6 PERCENT for
the New Komeito party, 2 PERCENT for the People's New Party, and 1
PERCENT for the New Party Nippon.

Among floating voters, 59 PERCENT voted for the DPJ's candidate in
their single-seat constituencies, with 24 PERCENT casting their
votes for the LDP's candidate. The DPJ was up 14 points from the
last election for the House of Representatives, with the LDP down 15
points.

LDP supporters also distanced themselves from the LDP. In the exit
poll, LDP supporters were asked which political party they voted for
in their proportional representation blocs. To this question, 54
PERCENT answered that they voted for the DPJ, with 29 PERCENT
saying they voted for the DPJ. The proportion of those who voted for
the LDP among LDP supporters dropped 18 points from the last
election for the House of Representatives, and that of those who
voted for the DPJ among LDP supporters rose 16 points. This shows
that the LDP failed lock on its supporters.

17) Exit poll: More than 50 PERCENT of floating votes cast for DPJ;
30 PERCENT of LDP supporters also vote for DPJ

NIKKEI (Page 3) (Abridged)
August 31, 2009

Kyodo News conducted an exit poll of voters yesterday at polling
stations throughout the country to probe the trends of voters in
yesterday's general election for the House of Representatives.
According to findings from the exit poll, Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP) and New Komeito supporters distanced themselves from the
ruling coalition of the LDP and the New Komeito. In addition,
floating voters with no particular party affiliation leaned toward
the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). These factors brought a
historic change of government. Furthermore, the Japanese Communist
Party narrowed down its fielding of candidates on its ticket. This

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also worked to the DPJ's advantage. Amid the strong tailwind for the
DPJ, each political party head's influence was limited.

In the exit poll, 22.5 PERCENT of voters answered that they did not
support any particular political party. Those floating voters with
no particular party affiliation were further asked which political
party's candidate they voted for in their single-seat constituencies
and which political party they voted for in their proportional
representation blocs. In the breakdown of their answers, the DPJ
scored 51.6 PERCENT for proportional representation and 59.4
PERCENT for single-seat constituencies. As seen from these figures,
the DPJ won high support ratings from more than half of the floating
or unaffiliated voters both in single-seat constituencies and in
proportional representation blocs.

The DPJ was severely defeated by the LDP in the 2005 election for
the House of Representatives. At that time, the DPJ garnered 38.2
PERCENT of votes cast by floating or unaffiliated voters in the
nation's proportional representation blocs and 45.5 PERCENT of
their votes in the nation's single-seat constituencies. At the time
of the election for the House of Councillors in 2007, the DPJ
garnered 51.2 PERCENT of floating votes for proportional
representation. In the election this time, the DPJ maintained its
momentum from the 2007 election for the House of Councillors.

Meanwhile, in the election this time, the proportion of those who
voted for the LDP among floating voters was 15.6 PERCENT , less than
one third of that for the DPJ. Among floating voters in the nation's
single-seat constituencies as well, the LDP fell markedly behind the
DPJ, as seen from the fact that the proportion of those who voted
for the LDP among those floating voters in nation's single-seat
constituencies was 23.4 PERCENT . At the time of the last election
for the House of Representatives in 2005, the LDP was boosted by
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's personal popularity and closed in
on the DPJ, garnering 32.6 PERCENT of floating votes for
proportional representation and 37.4 PERCENT of floating votes in
single-seat constituencies. This time, however, the LDP was
completely left behind by the DPJ.

In the nation's proportional representation blocs, the Japanese
Communist Party garnered 8.9 PERCENT of floating votes, Your Party
7.5 PERCENT , the Social Democratic Party 6.1 PERCENT , the New
Komeito 4.9 PERCENT , the People's New Party 2.0 PERCENT , the New
Party Nippon 1.4 PERCENT , and the Reform Club 0.1 PERCENT .

18) Exit poll: 30 PERCENT of LDP supporters vote for DPJ

ASAHI (Page 4) (Abridged)
August 31, 2009

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won an overwhelming victory in
yesterday's general election. This was primarily because Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) supporters changed their minds. Among LDP
supporters, 30 PERCENT cast their votes for the DPJ both in their
proportional representation blocs and in their single-seat
constituencies. People who previously supported the LDP thought that
they wanted to let the DPJ run the government this time around.

According to findings from exit polls conducted yesterday across the
nation, the proportion of LDP supporters among those who voted was
41 PERCENT at the time of the general election in 2005 when the LDP
won an overwhelming victory. In the general election this time, this

TOKYO 00001993 012 OF 017


ratio decreased to 37 PERCENT . Meanwhile, the proportion of DPJ
supporters increased from 20 PERCENT to 25 PERCENT .

Among LDP supporters, those who voted for the LDP in the general
election this time accounted for only 54 PERCENT , with 30 PERCENT
casting their votes for the DPJ. A similar trend was seen in the
nation's single-seat constituencies.

Meanwhile, 84 PERCENT of DPJ supporters voted for the DPJ, with
only 2 PERCENT casting their votes for the LDP. Among floating
voters with no particular affiliation as well, 15 PERCENT voted for
the LDP and 53 PERCENT for the DPJ. As seen from these figures,
voting behavior was drastically different from the time of the 2005
general election in which the LDP and the DPJ were almost on a par.

According to various public opinion surveys, the rate of public
support for the DPJ was higher than that for the LDP. Among those
who voted in the election, however, the rate of public support for
the LDP was higher than that for the DPJ. This result seems
unlikely, but it can be explained by the Asahi Shimbun's exit poll
of over 170,000 early voters at 858 locations in 273 electoral
districts. In this poll, the LDP's support rate was 20 PERCENT , and
the DPJ's support rate was as high as 46 PERCENT . This shows that
DPJ supporters enthusiastically went to the polls to cast their
votes prior to election day.

Also in early voting, 54 PERCENT of LDP supporters voted for the
LDP in their proportional representation blocs, with 30 PERCENT of
them voting for the DPJ. This is similar to the voting behavior of
LDP supporters in yesterday's election.

19) A number of challenges facing DPJ, including coalition talks,
budget: great number of new faces; Concern about Ozawa-rule

ASAHI (Page 2) (Excerpts)
August 31, 2009

Executives of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) are overjoyed by
their party's victory in the Lower House election. However, there is
not much time to fill themselves with deep emotion.

The new challenge brought about as a result of the landslide victory
is the stabilization of party management. A great number of freshmen
were elected this time in reaction to the 2005 postal general
election, in which the DPJ suffered a crushing defeat. There has
never been such a large number of inexperienced lawmakers before
elected to the Diet.

As such, a call for Ichiro Ozawa to serve as secretary general has
emerged. Since Ozawa has been solely responsible for election
campaign measures, including finding freshman candidates, he is more
familiar with them. A large number of Ozawa's "children" have become
lawmakers, as was the case in the Upper House election in 2007. For
this reason, some believe that the party needs Ozawa's leadership.

However, if Ozawa comes to hold full powers in managing the party,
it could draw criticism that the party has a dual-power structure.
The Ozawa group had the largest number of 50 members or so before
the election. A certain veteran lawmaker is concerned, "The number
of members of the Ozawa group will easily top 150, combining members
of both Diet chambers."


TOKYO 00001993 013 OF 017


Deputy Secretary General Yoshihiko Noda and some others, who
supported Okada in the party presidential election in May, met Okada
at a hotel in Tokyo on the afternoon of August 30. According to an
informed source, they called on Okada to build a united party to
prevent Ozawa-rule from occurring.

If the selection of key personnel, including Ozawa, is made first,
the party may fall into disarray. Hatoyama during a press conference
held in early hours of the 31st announced his plan to put off
personnel management, including the selection of key officers, until
after Diet nomination for prime minister. He also tried to calm down
the situation, saying during a TV program, "I have no intention of
giving a free hand to Mr. Ozawa regarding the management of the
party."

20) DPJ administration to set sail saddled with many touch issues
involving U.S., such as Futenma relocation and SOFA revision

NIKKEI (Page 5) (Abridged)
August 31, 2009

In running its administration, the Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ)
immediate challenges on the diplomatic front include the country's
relationship with the United States. Advocating a close and equal
Japan-U.S. alliance, the DPJ has criticized in the past the
government's and ruling coalition's policy course as "blindly
following the United States." The DPJ administration will set sail
weighed down by many tough issues, including the handling of the
(Maritime) Self-Defense Force's refueling mission in the Indian
Ocean.

On Aug. 27 the New York Times carried DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama's
contribution saying that the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty will remain
as the cornerstone for Japan's foreign policy, indicating that the
Japan-U.S. alliance will remain unwavering even after the DPJ takes
power. Nevertheless, the U.S. side is concerned mainly about two
matters.

One is the planned relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air
Station in Ginowan Okinawa Prefecture. The DPJ has until now called
for relocating the Futenma base outside the prefecture by reviewing
what was agreed upon regarding U.S. force realignment between Tokyo
and Washington. With the U.S. side poised not to respond to the
calls for relocating Futenma outside Okinawa, bilateral talks are
expected to encounter complications.

Another matter is a review of the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces
Agreement (SOFA) stipulating the legal status of the U.S. troops in
Japan. In its manifesto (campaign pledges for the Aug. 30 Lower
House election), the DPJ vowed to bring up a review of the SOFA. As
measures against environmental contamination on U.S. bases in Japan,
such plans as incorporating in the pact an environmental clause
allowing onsite examinations by local governments might emerge.

But the United States is reportedly remains cautious about revising
the SOFA with Japan in view of a possible impact on pacts with other
countries. If Japan insists on a review of the SOFA, the conflict
between Japan and the United States over is certain to come to the
fore.

DPJ Secretary General Katsuya Okada has indicated that after his
party takes power it will give priority for "Prime Minister Yukio

TOKYO 00001993 014 OF 017


Hatoyama" to build a relationship of trust with President Barack
Obama. During a Japan-U.S. summit expected to take place as early as
September, the DPJ might make tremendous efforts to forge a good
relationship by abstaining from delving deeper into the tough
issues, such as the SOFA.

Other tough issues included the handling of the MSDF's refueling
mission in the Indian Ocean. The DPJ does not intend to extend the
mission beyond its expiry next January. If the party decides to
terminate the mission, it will likely be pressed to come up with an
alternative measure for Afghanistan.

In addition, the DPJ's challenges include the question of inspecting
cargo ships traveling to and from North Korea and antipiracy
measures in waters off Somalia.

21) Responses in foreign countries to switch in power to DPJ in
Japan

TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 13) (Full)
August 31, 2009

(Nakahiro Iwata, Washington)

The international community paid close attention to the outcome of
the House of Representatives election yesterday, which set the stage
for a historic change of government in Japan with the Democratic
Party of Japan's overwhelming victory. It was promptly reported by
foreign media. Some countries have placed expectations on a new
government led by the DPJ, which places emphasis on East Asia in its
foreign policy, while some others have voiced concern about its
unknown diplomatic skills.

Concerns voiced in U.S. about possible change in Japan's foreign
policy

The U.S. was showing much higher interest in yesterday's election
than past elections in Japan. The media reported frequently on
Japanese voters' calls for "change," which had also been advocated
by U.S. President Barack Obama.

U.S. government officials in charge of Japan policy have focused on
the DPJ's proposal for an equal Japan-U.S. alliance. In particular,
they have expressed apprehension about the party's call for
relocating the Futenma Air Station outside Okinawa Prefecture and
its opposition to the Maritime Self-Defense Force's ongoing
refueling mission in the Indian Ocean. The refueling operation is
part of Japan cooperation in the war on terror in Afghanistan, which
the Obama administration has designated as an important task.

Having observed the DPJ rewrite its manifesto in response to the
U.S. concerns, U.S. government sources have expressed expectations
for a change in its policy stance.

But Senior Fellow (Sheila) Smith of the Council on Foreign Relations
takes the severe view that "it is unfathomably difficult for a
political party to truly become a ruling party." DPJ President Yukio
Hatoyama contributed an article to the New York Times (Internet
edition) on the eve of election day criticizing the U.S.'s
market-forces principle and emphasizing the need to build
Asia-centric economic and security structures. The Hatoyama article
has also fueled concern that Japan might distance itself from the

TOKYO 00001993 015 OF 017


U.S.

22) Overseas responses to DPJ victory in Lower House election

SANKEI (Page 4) (Excerpts)
August 31, 2008

Takashi Arimoto, Washington

Regarding the Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) victory in the Lower
House election, the White House on August 30 released a statement
that it is confident that the firm Japan-U.S. alliance and the close
relationship between the two countries would continue under the new
administration, as well. The statement went on to say that President
Obama hopes for close cooperation with the new prime minister.

However, many Japan experts are alarmed that the DPJ might come up
with policies that could adversely affect the bilateral alliance.

Concerning the DPJ's call for equal Japan-U.S. relations, senior
fellow Sheila Smith of the Council on Foreign Affairs, a U.S. think
tank, said, "Regarding the DPJ's policies, I will closely watch its
priority order," while saying, "I am not worried about the words
they use." Regarding the party's policy of pulling out of refueling
operations in the Indian Ocean, Smith called on the DPJ to release
an alternative contribution measure at an early date.

Senior fellow Bruce Klinger of the Heritage Foundation, a
conservative think tank, said, "I am concerned about the impact of
(the DPJ-led administration) on Japan-U.S. security cooperation."

23) Can DPJ deliver on its public pledges?

ASAHI (Page 4) (Abridged)
August 31, 2009

Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Yukio Hotoyama has begun
mulling the lineup for his cabinet. The new administration is likely
to be launched in mid-September. The question is whether the DPJ can
really deliver on its campaign pledges, including revamping the
overall budget allocation system, restoring public trust in the
pension system, and building an equal Japan-U.S. alliance.

Building relations of trust with the United States

Security and foreign policies

The new Japanese prime minister is expected to make his diplomatic
debut at a series of summit-level international conferences to be
held in the United States in late September, which will be attended
by U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao. On
the sidelines of those events, Japan-U.S. and Japan-China bilateral
summits are likely to take place. All eyes will be on what message
the new Japanese administration sends out to the international
community.

DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama has repeatedly expressed his desire to
build a relationship of trust with President Obama. In its manifesto
(campaign pledges for the Aug. 30 Lower House election), the DPJ has
vowed to carry out policies that might irritate the United States,
such as terminating the refueling mission in the Indian Ocean. The
DPJ manifesto also advocates "a close and equal Japan-U.S.

TOKYO 00001993 016 OF 017


alliance." But some in the U.S. are concerned about exactly what
that means. The new Japanese Prime Minister must dispel U.S.
concerns at the upcoming Japan-U.S. summit and establish himself as
a reliable partner.

To coincide with the UN General Assembly to be held in New York, a
meeting of the UN High-level Event on Climate Change and a summit
meeting on the nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament will be
held. Furthermore, a G-20 financial summit will take place in
Pittsburgh. These events will all focus on vital international
issues in which Japan is expected to play an active role.

Japan has had three prime ministers over the last three years after
Junichiro Koizumi. The new Japanese Prime Minister must send a
strong message to the international community that he is capable of
taking leadership in addressing foreign issues.

In terms of policy toward Asia, the new administration will also be
tested on how it deals with North Korea.

The purported Japan-U.S. secret nuclear pact will also be a
challenge for the new administration.

24) International community closely watching Hatoyama-led DPJ; U.S.
looking forward to closely working with new Japanese Prime Minister,
though concerned about security policy

ASAHI (Page 5) (Abridged)
August 31, 2009

Immediately after a change of government became definite in Japan on
August 30, many foreign media outlets reported on it, with the
U.S.'s CNN saying, "The Japanese people have opted for change," and
Britain's BBC reporting, "The era of the Liberal Democratic Party
has now come to an end." Many people in countries with close ties
with Japan are taking the news positively as a result reflecting
Japan's popular will. At the same time, some are keeping close watch
on how a DPJ administration will deal with foreign affairs and
handle such sticky issues as history and territorial rows.

Hiroshi Ito, Washington

On Aug. 30, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs released a
statement which said: "The people of Japan have participated in an
historic election. As a close friend and ally, the United States
awaits the formation of a new Japanese government. (The United
States) is confident that the strong U.S.-Japan alliance and close
partnership. President Obama looks forward to working closely with
the new Japanese Prime Minister on a broad range of global,
regional, and bilateral issues."

The prevalent view among U.S. government officials and Japan experts
is that there will be no fundamental change in bilateral relations
even under a DPJ administration. The reason for this view is that
the DPJ has announced a plan to continue attaching importance to
relations with the United States and also because the U.S.
government, too, thinks Japan's cooperation is indispensable in
dealing with pressing issues.

Nevertheless, the DPJ has referred to some changes to the security
policy upheld under the LDP-New Komeito, and this is a matter of
concern for the United States.

TOKYO 00001993 017 OF 017

In particular, DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama expressed a view that
the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling mission in the Indian
Ocean should be terminated when its legal basis expires next
January. "Afghan policy is a top priority for the Obama
administration, and if (Japan terminates its refueling mission),
that will significantly disappoint (the Obama administration)," a
former U.S. government official said.

Another concern for the U.S. government is the realignment of U.S.
forces in Japan, including the planned relocation of the U.S. Marine
Corps' Futenma Air Station in Okinawa. The DPJ has indicated that it
will review Futenma relocation, with relocation outside the
prefecture as one option

"If the planned relocation comes to a halt, the plan itself might
fall apart," indicated Michael Green, Japan chair at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies.

ROOS

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