Cablegate: Tfaf01 Afghan Election Watch: Sit Rep And

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 STATE 087532

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: AEMR ASEC CASC KFLO MARR PINR PREL PINR
AMGT, XD, AF, KPAO, EAID, KDEM
SUBJECT: TFAF01 AFGHAN ELECTION WATCH: SIT REP AND
S/SRAP MEDIA MESSAGING REPORT #5

----------------------------------
Operations Center Situation Report
----------------------------------
1. (SBU) Begin Sitrep:
KARZAI AND ABDULLAH BOTH CLAIM VICTORY
---------------------------------------
(SBU) A Karzai representative later backtracked from
earlier claims of victory. Abdullah's campaign will
file complaints of irregularities and acts of
intimidation. Ghani, the third major candidate,
indicated he might publicly allege election fraud.
(TFAF01/SRAP e-mail)
BALLOT COUNTING COMPLETED IN 30 OF 34 PROVINCES
--------------------------------------------- --
(SBU) Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission
(IEC) must complete counting in Kabul, Baghlan,
Nangarhar, and Herat provinces. Commentary on voter
turnout remains speculative pending IEC findings. The
IEC will not release final election results until
September 17, after adjudication of complaints by the
Electoral Complaints Commission. (TFAF01/Kabul telcon,
Kabul 2459)

(SBU) Afghan Security Forces continue to provide
security at polling centers and will support the
movement of ballot materials to the IEC tally center in
Kabul with International Security Assistance Force
(ISAF) logistical support. ISAF reported a record
number of uncoordinated and ineffective insurgent
attacks on election day. (ISAF Afghan Election Summary
VTC briefing)

ASSESSMENTS BY U.S. OBSERVER MISSIONS
-------------------------------------
(SBU) The International Republican Institute (IRI)
observers said the election appeared credible, though
lower turnout, fraud, and abuse of state resources
brought these polls to a lower standard than previous
Afghan elections. (Kabul SitRep14)

(SBU) Democracy International (DI) observers in
Kandahar City expect voter turnout to be no more than 10
to 15 percent. Rocket attacks in the afternoon might
have reduced voting numbers. They did not directly
observe any fraud or voters being prevented from
voting. (Kabul SitRep 14)

MEDIA FOCUS ON SECURITY, FRAUD, TURNOUT, AND VOTE COUNT
--------------------------------------------- ----------
(U) Observers hailed the election as a success, after
voting passed off relatively peacefully amid threats of
insurgent attacks. Media also report allegations of
fraud, and mixed voter turnout. (bbc.co.uk)

----------------------
S/SRAP Media Messaging
----------------------

2. (U) Begin Messaging:

STATE 00087532 002 OF 004

SUBJECT: TFAF01 AFGHAN ELECTION WATCH: SIT REP AND
S/SRAP MEDIA MESSAGING REPORT
(U) Please find attached coordinated media messaging
guidelines regarding the Afghan elections. This
messaging has been cleared for public use throughout the
Department and interagency. Updates will follow by 0600
and 1600 daily for the duration of the Department's
Afghan Election Task Force.

SRAP: SUMMARY OF UPCOMING EVENTS
---------------------------------
Aug 22: Ramadan Begins
Aug 22-23: Observer Mission Reports (EU Election
Observer Mission, National Democratic Institute, FEFA);
Press Conferences from IEC, ECC
Aug 23: CJCS and Ambassador Eikenberry on Sunday
morning talk shows
Aug 24: IEC press conferences
Aug 25 (NLT): Partial Results from IEC
Sept 3: Preliminary Official Results
Sept 17: Final Certified Results
Oct 10: Possible Inauguration

Approximate Runoff Schedule
---------------------------
Oct 1: Runoff elections
Oct 15: Preliminary Results
Oct 29: Final Results
Nov 28: Possible Inauguration
SUMMARY OF ELECTION STATEMENTS
------------------------------------
U.S. PRESIDENT'S STATEMENT: This was an important step
forward in the Afghan people's effort to take control of
their future, even as violent extremists are trying to
stand in their way.... Over the last few days -- and
particularly yesterday -- we've seen acts of violence
and intimidation by the Taliban, and there may be more
in the days to come. We knew that the Taliban would try
to derail this election. Yet even in the face of this
brutality, millions of Afghans exercised the right to
choose their leaders and determine their own destiny.
And as I watched the election, I was struck by their
courage in the face of intimidation, and their dignity
in the face of disorder.... The United States did not
support any candidate in this election. Our only
interest was the result fairly, accurately reflecting
the will of the Afghan people, and that is what we will
continue to support as the votes are counted, and we
wait for the official results from the Afghan
Independent Electoral Commission and the Electoral
Complaints Commission. Meanwhile, we will continue to
work with our Afghan partners to strengthen Afghan
security, governance, and opportunity. Full Statement:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Re marks-by-
the-President-on-the-recent-elections-in-Afgh anistan/
U.S. Embassy Kabul Statement: (Cable - Kabul 2451)
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rassmussen:
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/SID-B73C9A0F-
D304FC01/natolive/opinions_57014.htm?mode=pre ssrelease
UN Special Representative of the Secretary General Kai
Eide:
http://unama.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabi d=1761&ctl=
Details&mid=1892&ItemID=5354

UN Secretary General Ban Kai Moon:
http://unama.unmissions.org

STATE 00087532 003 OF 004

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID= 31821&Cr=af
ghan&Cr1

White House Press Briefing:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing_room/Press Briefings/

State Department Daily Press Briefing:
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2009/index. htm

SRAP: MESSAGING
-----------------
(U) In the coming days, speculation will continue
regarding the election results, voter turnout and
irregularities/fraud. The below messages are the basis
for all USG commentary:

(U) Q: WHAT IS YOUR OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE ELECTIONS?
August 20 was a good day for the people of Afghanistan
and a bad day for the insurgency. Afghan security
forces, with international support, ensured violence did
not derail these elections. Approximately 95 percent of
polling centers (6200 of 6523) opened and it seems clear
that a great many Afghans defied Taliban attempts to
deny them their right to vote.

The Afghan people should be commended for their courage
in conducting this election despite the insurgent
intimidation and logistical challenges of carrying out
an election in Afghanistan, and we and the international
community are proud to support them.

The electoral process is entering the critical phase of
counting and verification of results.

(U) SECURITY: The fact that elections proceeded despite
significant challenges, is a major step forward.
Despite acts of violence and intimidation over the past
few days, millions of Afghans exercised the right to
choose their leaders and the future of their country.
The Afghan Security Forces capably responded and ensured
that insurgents were unable to disrupt this important
day.

Afghan security forces prevented a number of incidents
during the election day in various parts of the country.
The IEC, supported by the UN and international
community, also rose to the challenge and ensured
millions of Afghans who wanted to vote were able to do
so.

(U) HAVE YOU SEEN REPORTS THAT X CAMPAIGN IS ANNOUNCING
VICTORY?
Only the IEC is in a position to announce official
results. Anything else is just speculation at this
point. We call on all parties to exert patience and
restraint and to wait for the official announcement of
the election results.

(U) ARE THERE ANY PLANS FOR A RUN-OFF?
The IEC will determine if a run-off is necessary and
lead preparations for a run-off, should they become
necessary. The IEC has assured that adequate
preparations will be in place.

(U) HAVE YOU SEEN X REPORT FROM X OBSERVER GROUP?

STATE 00087532 004 OF 004

SUBJECT: TFAF01 AFGHAN ELECTION WATCH: SIT REP AND
S/SRAP MEDIA MESSAGING REPORT
Several observer groups will make statements in coming
weeks. We are reviewing the reports as they come in.
Observers play an important role in helping ensure a
credible election. We appreciate their efforts in
challenging circumstances.

It will be several days before official preliminary
results are issued by the IEC, and we hope initial
reports will refrain from speculation until results are
announced. Final results - which will be certified only
by the Independent Electoral Commission -- could take
several weeks. We call on candidates and their
supporters to behave responsibly during and after the
elections.

(U) DO YOU HAVE ANY REACTION TO CLAIMS OF FRAUD?
We condemn acts of fraud; it is important that the
outcome of these elections reflects the will of the
Afghan people. Robust mechanisms exist for dealing with
incidents of fraud, through the IEC and the Electoral
Complaints Commission. The formal complaints period for
the ECC ends September 17, when the ECC will submit
findings to the IEC for final determination.

A key way of combating fraud is the observer missions.
The U.S. funded more than 360 observers from independent
international NGOs and from Embassy Kabul to observe the
process. These U.S. funded observers were present in 29
of Afghanistan's 34 provinces.

3. (U) MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.
CLINTON

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