Cablegate: Finland: Halonen Assumes Traditional Posture

VZCZCXRO5707
RR RUEHAG RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHHE #0355/01 2711058
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 281058Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5183
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 5008
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000355

SIPDIS

NSC FOR HOVENIER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2019
TAGS: FI PGOV PREL RS
SUBJECT: FINLAND: HALONEN ASSUMES TRADITIONAL POSTURE
TOWARDS RUSSIA

REF: A. 09 HELSINKI 151
B. 09 HELSINKI 211

Classified By: Ambassador Bruce Oreck for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

1. (C) SUMMARY. On August 11 Finnish President Halonen met,
dined and relaxed with Russian President Medvedev and Prime
Minister Putin for five hours in the Black Sea city of Sochi.
This was the third presidential meeting this year, and
Finnish officials describe each as a warm encounter.
Typically these meetings focus on bilateral trade matters,
but this time topics like the Nord Stream pipeline project,
US-Russia relations, human rights, climate change and Iran
dominated. In pursuing such a positive working relationship
with the Russian leadership, Halonen is following a long
tradition of Finnish Presidents assuming the role of
"guarantor" of good bilateral relations. That role sometimes
places Halonen at odds with the other two charged with
Finland's foreign relations, the Prime Minister and the
Foreign Minister. Halonen could be a useful "western
consultant" for the Russian leadership, if she used her
meetings to support transatlantic and European security
institutions. However, Halonen does not raise those topics,
and her influence with the Russian leadership is uncertain.
END SUMARY.

2. (C) On August 11 President Halonen met Russian President
Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin in the Black Sea city of
Sochi. In an August 20 meeting with Pol/Econ Chief, Maimo
Henriksson - Director of the Russia Unit at the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs - described two very positive meetings
spanning roughly five hours (four with Medvedev (including
lunch), and approximately one with Putin). This was the
third time this year Halonen has met her counterpart, the
other two being in April and June (REFS). As with all of
these meetings, bilateral trade matters were on the agenda;
however, on this occasion multilateral issues dominated.

BILATERAL ISSUES - LIMITED TALK, NO PROGRESS

3. (C) Halonen raised two issues: Finnish participation -
particularly of a Finnish construction consortium - in bids
related to the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics, and the Russian
tariff on roundwood exports. Henriksson acknowledged that
the Finns have few expectations of success when raising
Olympic bids with the Russian leadership; Halonen continues
to raise the subject mostly for domestic consumption, to show
that Halonen speaks up for Finnish interests. Regarding the
wood tariff, Halonen received sympathy and justifications but
no confirmation that the tariff would be eliminated or that
Russia would extend the current one-year moratorium, set to
end in December. Medvedev offered understanding of the
difficulties facing the Finnish forestry industry, and went
on to blame China, stating that Russia's real concern is for
its wood industry is in the east, not the west. Putin said
Russia did not wish to harm Finland's economy, but Russia
must promote its own industry. He pointed to Russia's
automobile industry, asserting that raising import duties
resulted in a boost for domestic car production. (NOTE:
Henriksson said that the Russian trade minister had
separately indicated that Russia might continue its
suspension of the tariff, which the Finns assume means
rolling it over for another year. The minister insisted that
Russia had seen investments in its wood industry, but
provided no specific examples. Many GoF officials are
dubious about Russian claims of such investments. END NOTE.)

U.S.-RUSSIAN RELATIONS AND OTHER ISSUES

4. (C) Halonen and Medvedev did not speak extensively about
U.S.-Russian relations, only touching on a few issues.
Henriksson stated that Medvedev viewed initial discussions of
a post-START treaty positively. Halonen's overall impression
was that Medvedev "valued the current U.S. policy line very
highly" but was nevertheless "cautious about the
possibilities of success." Henriksson said NATO - and the
possibility of Finland's membership - did not arise in either
meeting, or in any other Halonen-Medvedev-Putin meeting this
year. Other non-bilateral topics included:

- CLIMATE CHANGE: Halonen and Putin briefly discussed the
Copenhagen Summit. Putin said that Russia would not be
"saddled with bigger demands than the U.S. or China."

HELSINKI 00000355 002 OF 002

- NORD STREAM: Halonen and Medvedev spoke only briefly about
the proposed natural gas pipeline: Medvedev spoke about the
importance of Russian energy to EU countries, while Halonen
recounted the Finnish environmental review process now
drawing to a close and to the building permit process that
would follow a positive review.

- WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION: Halonen asked about Russia's
intentions to join the WTO on its own. Medvedev said Russia
has not given up its intention to join alone, i.e., it does
not intend to become a "prisoner of a slower process."
Medvedev did not address how Russia might accelerate the
current process.

- HUMAN RIGHTS: Regarding Chechnya, Halonen told Medvedev
that the current situation cannot continue and asked what can
be done to improve it. Henriksson expressed disappointment
with Medvedev's vague response. He acknowledged problems, in
particular an entire generation growing up accustomed to
violence, and spoke broadly of improvements, of ongoing
reconstruction and aid money being funneled to Chechnya. He
complained of terrorists still operating in Chechnya and
receiving support from Turkey and Arab countries.

- IRAN: Halonen's view was that the Russians think it a
"mistake to leave Iran alone" regarding its nuclear
ambitions, but that Iran should be allowed a civil nuclear
power capability - a "peaceful track" should be allowed, as a
ban would only encourage surreptitious pursuit.

HALONEN: GUARANTOR OF GOOD FINNISH-RUSSIAN RELATIONS?

5. (C) Henriksson noted the positive tone of all of Halonen's
meetings with the Russian leadership. She believes that, like
other Finnish presidents, Halonen sees herself as the
"guarantor" of good Finnish-Russian relations. Following
Halonen's trip the Finnish media picked up on this point,
placing Halonen in a long tradition of Presidents building
working relationships with the Russian leadership. One
editorial noted that Medvedev and Putin may have found a
"western consultant or even a therapist" in Halonen. Another
saw a problem in Halonen's working relationship: Historically
(and currently), Russia wants a more independent Finland
standing between east and west, but as an EU Member State
Finland is firmly planted in the west.

COMMENT

6. (C) Halonen appears to have good relations with the
Russian leadership, though her ability to influence that
leadership is uncertain. With Finland firmly planted in the
west, its President might be well positioned to be a "western
consultant," explaining policies while maintaining a strong
voice in supporting existing transatlantic and other European
security organizations. However, Halonen's adopted role seems
focused on not roiling the bilateral waters while gently
raising broad international themes. That traditional role
appears to play well in Finland, given Halonen's strong poll
numbers. While Halonen does not utilize her role to best
transatlantic advantage, her domestic popularity works in our
interest when she speaks favorably on other issues, as she
did this summer in publicly expressing support for Finland's
contributions to Afghanistan.

ORECK

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