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Cablegate: Canada; Afghanistan Quarterly Report Claims

VZCZCXRO6414
OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHIK RUEHMT RUEHPOD RUEHQU RUEHSL RUEHVC RUEHYG
DE RUEHOT #0725/01 2582138
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 152138Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9857
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/CJCS WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JCS WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 1000
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000725

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL MARR EAID AF CA
SUBJECT: CANADA; AFGHANISTAN QUARTERLY REPORT CLAIMS
PROGRESS

REF: A. OTTAWA 430
B. OTTAWA 179

1. (SBU) Summary. The Canadian government's fifth
quarterly report to Parliament on "Canada's Engagement in
Afghanistan" on September 15 again claimed progress on most
of the benchmarks of its six priority areas and three
signature projects, while admitting high levels of insurgent
violence and improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Popular
and even Parliamentary interest in the report and current
details of Canada's involvement is nonetheless low, apart
from continued concern about the deaths of Canadian Forces
(the 130th soldier was killed on September 13). With the
Opposition Liberals in lock-step with the ruling
Conservatives on the 2011 end date for Canada's military
mission in Afghanistan, the issue is not likely to emerge as
a campaign issue should the government fall in the coming
weeks. There is much media speculation of what President
Obama may request of Prime Minister Harper on Afghanistan
during their September 16 meeting in Washington . End
Summary.

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2. (U) Minister of International Trade and chairman of the
Cabinet Committee on Afghanistan Stockwell Day on September
15 released the government's quarterly report on "Canada's
Engagement in Afghanistan," its fifth since the March 2008
Parliamentary motion that extended the mission of the
Canadian Forces, while mandating a final pull-out in 2011.
The report admitted that "overall security
conditions...continued to deteriorate," with the nationwide
frequency of insurgent attacks in May and June "higher than
in any month since the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001."
The report underscored that Kandahar province experienced a
"steep increase in the number of enemy-initiated attacks
against soldiers, civilians and facilities," with the
frequency of security events in Kandahar "exceptionally
high." It noted that IED incidents during the quarter were
"108 percent higher than in the same three months of 2008."
The report welcomed the influx of new U.S. troops, which has
enabled Canada to concentrate on protecting the population of
Kandahar City and surrounding villages instead of its earlier
focus on "disrupting the insurgency in the countryside." It
also admitted that "government capacity in Afghanistan is
chronically weak and undermined by widespread corruption."

3. (U) In support of the Afghan National Police, Canada
announced a new contribution of C$12 million to pay police
salaries in Kandahar through the Law and Order Trust Fund for
Afghanistan, administered by the UN Development Program.
Canada now has 41 civilian Canadian police officers deployed
with the ANP and the Ministry of the Interior, up by 12
officers during the quarter. Canada also contributed C$3
million to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, C$6 million
to the World Food Programme, and C$4 million to other
humanitarian agencies, primarily for relief to Afghan
refugees and internally displaced persons.

------------
KEY FINDINGS
------------

4. (U) Priority 1 -- Training and Mentoring Afghan National
Security Forces
-- as in previous reports, only one of five Afghan National
Army "kandaks" is fully capable of planning, executing, and
sustaining near-autonomous operations (2011 target: four out
of five so capable), but the other four have now "improved to
the second highest capability milestone;"
Qthe second highest capability milestone;"
-- three of the five kandaks now have an effective strength
of 70 pct or higher, compared to only one in 2008;
-- 71 pct of total security operations in the CF's AOR are
now executed by the ANA, compared to a 45 pct baseline;
-- the ANA now has an approval rating of 85 pct or more in
five of the six key districts, compared to only four in June
2008;
-- a majority of Kandaharis in one of the six key districts
now feel secure or perceive security as improving, compared
to zero in June 2008 (2011 target is a majority in all six);
-- 90 pct of all Afghan National Police have completed an
eight-week training program, already exceeding the 80 pct
2011 target;
-- 100 pct of corrections officers have completed basic
level training (meeting a 2011 target), with another 50 pct
having completed advanced level training, and 100 pct of

OTTAWA 00000725 002 OF 002


senior managers having completed management training.

5. (U) Priority 2 -- Strengthen Afghan institutional
capacity to deliver core services and promote economic growth
-- in connection with the "signature project" of the Dahla
Dam, a new bridge was completed during the quarter and 27 new
jobs were created (a total of 199 to date);
-- Canada completed no new schools -- another "signature
project" -- during the quarter, although 28 schools are now
under construction, eight of which are more than 90 pct
complete (five schools out of the 2011 target of 50 new
schools are now ready);
-- almost 11,000 individuals (mostly women) have completed
literacy training, and 470 adults have received vocational
training (about halfway in both cases to the 2011 target);
-- although 75 pct of Kandaharis are satisfied with the
Afghan government's efforts to improve the quality of life,
only 44 pct -- down from 64 pct in 2008 -- are now satisfied
with provision of education.

6. (U) Priority 3 -- Provide humanitarian assistance
-- on Canada's other "signature project -- polio eradication
-- another 369,000 children in Kandahar were vaccinated, with
7.2 million children now vaccinated throughout the country,
but there were 13 new cases of polio in the first half of
2009, including seven in Kandahar;
-- during the quarter, another 0.27 square kilometers were
cleared of landmines and released (2011 target is 500 square
kilometers), with 42,000 individuals having received mine
risk education (2011 target is 200,000);
-- 330 more health care workers were trained during the
quarter (2011 target is 500 receive training).

7. (SBU) Priority 4 -- Enhance border security
-- joint working groups under the Dubai Process are now
meeting, and a Canadian-facilitated discussion between Afghan
and Pakistani military officials took place in May;
-- construction began on a Joint District Coordination
Center in Spin Boldak.

8. (U) Priority 5 -- Democratic Development and National
Institutions
-- a new benchmark looks at how many provinces have
completed a provincial strategic plan; training for officials
from 22 provinces took place in May, with the first draft of
Kandahar's strategic plan expected by December 2009;
-- the sixth quarterly report will discuss the August
election processes and results.

9. (U) Priority 6 -- Political reconciliation
-- no results in this quarter, especially in the absence of
a "fully developed national reconciliation strategy."

-------
COMMENT
-------

10. (SBU) As with previous reports, there was little public
or even Parliamentary interest in the substance of this
report. This underscores again how much Afghanistan has all
but disappeared as a hot political issue in Canada, despite
the public sympathy over each new death of a Canadian soldier
in Afghanistan (now up to 130, as well as one diplomat and
two development workers), most recently on September 13.
Although the Official Opposition Liberal Party now appears
determined to topple the government this fall (for which it
will need the support of two other opposition parties),
Afghanistan is extremely unlikely to emerge as a campaign
issue -- even though it is clear that Canada is not reaching
most of its significant benchmarks. Both the Liberals and
the Conservatives remain committed to the March 2008
Qthe Conservatives remain committed to the March 2008
Parliamentary motion that extended the Canadian Forces'
mandate in Afghanistan but also set a clear and final
pull-out of the CF for 2011. Neither is now willing to
revisit this issue, at least publicly. There is, however,
much media speculation of what President Obama may request of
Prime Minister Harper on Afghanistan during their September
16 meeting in Washington .

Visit Canada,s North American partnership community at
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap /

BREESE

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