Cablegate: Canadian Government Survives Confidence Vote

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OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHIK RUEHMT RUEHPOD RUEHQU RUEHSL RUEHVC RUEHYG
DE RUEHOT #0735 2611735
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 181735Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9868
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS OTTAWA 000735

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: CANADIAN GOVERNMENT SURVIVES CONFIDENCE VOTE

REF: A. OTTAWA 719
B. OTTAWA 709

1. (U) The government of Conservative Prime Minister
Stephen Harper on September 18 easily survived a confidence
vote on a Ways and Means motion, with the unusual support of
both the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Quebecois.
The Official Opposition Liberal Party voted en masse against
the government for the first time in more than two years,
reiterating its leader Michael Ignatieff's mantra that the
party had indeed lost confidence in the government, while
voicing support for the domestically popular home renovation
tax credits in the motion. (The new Liberal line is that the
motion was in fact unnecessary, since the credits had been in
the 2009 budget, for which the Liberals had voted, unlike the
NDP and the Bloc.)

2. (U) The fight now moves to new legislation to expand
benefits under Canada's Employment Insurance (EI) program,
which the Conservatives introduced in the House of Commons on
September 16. The Liberals moved on September 17 to obtain
"unanimous consent" to expedite the legislation without the
usual three readings and committee hearings in both the House
and the Senate (the latter of which the Liberals control).
House leaders from all four parties met on September 17 to
discuss this possibility. Ultimately, both the NDP and the
Bloc indicated some dissatisfaction with the new bill,
claiming that it was not generous enough and still needed
committee scrutiny and debate. Major labor union leaders
have now begun to criticize the proposed provisions and scope
of the bill as well. The NDP has nonetheless pledged to
support the government until passage of revised EI
legislation.

3. (SBU) Comment: Parliament will recess during the week
of September 21 in declared deference to the G-20 meetings
that will again take PM Harper and other key ministers out of
the country. The Liberals continue to voice hope that a
consensus emerges that would enable a successful vote on EI
before the end of the month, thus freeing the NDP from its
temporary pledge of support for the government and therefore
potentially enabling the Liberals successfully to introduce
another vote of confidence on an Opposition Day o/a October
1. These Parliamentary maneuvers are well off the radar
scope for most Canadians, but Ottawa politicos remain riveted
by the curious ebbs and flows of these short-term tactical
alliances. The Canadian public continues to oppose yet
another election by wide margins; the Conservatives say they
don't want one, either (although they probably do, given more
favorable poll numbers); the Liberals vow to topple the
government (although their chances of winning an election are
still slim, even if they would likely pick up some seats);
the Bloc probably doesn't especially care one way or another,
since it will likely maintain its four dozen seats); while
the NDP probably fears an election the most, given weak polls
and finances (although its core constituents will not
countenance supporting the Conservatives even indirectly for
long). Privately, some Conservatives are now beginning to
predict survival of the government easily through the fall,
likely well past the 2010 Winter Olympics, and even possibly
until even fall 2010. However, recent events demonstrate
that the ongoing political roller coaster will most probably
produce still more surprises that could undermine such newly
optimistic calculations. The bottom line is that Canada will
remain in virtual pre-election campaign mode for the
foreseeable future, limiting the government's ability to pass
Qforeseeable future, limiting the government's ability to pass
significant legislation or to undertake bold policy choices.

Visit Canada,s North American partnership community at
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap /

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