Cablegate: Uribe's Party Wins Big in Political Musical Chairs

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PHUM CO
SUBJECT: URIBE'S PARTY WINS BIG IN POLITICAL MUSICAL CHAIRS

REF: BOGOTA 2833

SUMMARY

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1. President Uribe's "U" party consolidated its Congressional base
as part of a political reform that gave members until September 14
to change parties. While the changes left the balance of power
between Uribe's coalition and the opposition in the Congress
unchanged, the "U" and Conservative Parties increased membership by
absorbing members from smaller partners. The opposition Liberal
Party maintained its position while engineering a key acquisition:
the Presidency of the House. Small parties and the Radical Change
party (divided over whether or not to support the reelection of
Uribe) were the biggest losers in the process. While some
political reforms -- allowing coalition candidates, mandating
public roll call votes and sanctioning parties whose members engage
in illicit activities -- have taken effect, others -- involving
campaign finance, sanctions for electoral violations, increasing
internal party democracy, gender equity, and marginalized
territories -- must be worked out in an implementing bill. These
reforms will significantly impact the 2010 legislative elections.
End Summary.

DEADLINE PASSES FOR POLITICAL MEAT MARKET

-----------------------------------------

2. On September 14, the deadline passed on a two-month period to
change party banners under a July 14 constitutional reform.
Approximately 57 congressmen, hundreds of departmental
parliamentarians, and thousands of municipal counselors took
advantage of the singular opportunity to change parties and keep
their seats (they normally must resign their seats according to
electoral rules). The overall political reform was designed to
strengthen political parties and increase their accountability in
light of the parapolitical scandal that rocked the 2006-10 Congress
in which congressmen were accused of colluding with paramilitaries.
The larger parties supported the party-switching clause against the
objections of smaller parties and the Alternative Democratic Pole
(PDA). The party defections have set the stage for upcoming
legislative agenda battles and national legislative elections next
March.

THE CONGRESSIONAL BOX SCORE

---------------------------

3. These are the figures reported to us by the Electoral
Observation Mission (MOE), an independent monitoring organization:

HOUSE(166) SENATE (102)

------------ ------------

URIBE ALLIED Before-After Before-After

--The U 34 44 20 30

--Conservative 32 36 18 23

--Rad. Change 18 12 15 10

--Other 24 17 17 7

-TOTAL COALITION 108 109 70 70

OTHER

--Liberal 36 39 18 18
--PDA 8 7 10 10

--Other 14 11 4 4

-TOTAL OTHER 58 57 32 32

URIBE COALITION CONSOLIDATES

----------------------------

4. The overall balance of power in Congress did not change
significantly and the Uribe legislative coalition continues to
control approximately 68% of the Senate and 66% of the House.
However, the coalition emerged more concentrated and united around
the "U" and Conservative Parties, which gained seats at the expense
of their smaller partners. The two parties alone now control
approximately 52% (up from 37%) of the Senate and 48% (up from 40%)
of the House. Previously, the coalition majority depended on three
major parties and seven minor ones making vote whipping and
maintaining coalition discipline difficult as seen in the final
push to pass the presidential reelection referendum (see reftel).

5. Party presidents Luis Carlos Restrepo of the U and Efrain
Cepeda of the Conservatives can now better coordinate their
political machinery to turn out the popular vote for the possible
re-election referendum, and for 2010 congressional and presidential
elections. The consolidation also diminishes the possibility of
losing smaller partners that cannot meet the minimum vote threshold
for official legal status in the next election. The consolidation
has also created some political conundrums, as some original party
members will now have to compete with their new colleagues for the
same votes in next year's elections. Acknowledging these problems,
Restrepo said publicly that the reconciliation of party lists with
new members will be a difficult task.

6. The remaining small Uribe parties are seeking ways to survive
and remain relevant. Citizen Convergence, with 17 seats, is the
largest remaining of them. The party lost members to the U and
Conservative Parties but also gained seats from smaller parties.
The party announced that it is seeking to combine with other
remaining small parties under a new name and replace Radical Change
as the number three party in the coalition.

OPPOSITION DEFIANT

------------------

7. Cesar Gaviria, opposition Liberal Party President, declared,
"The National Government tried to end my party, but the result was
the opposite." Before the reform, the Liberals were the single
largest party in Congress with 54 seats. Although now surpassed by
the U, the Liberals gained three seats, including the President of
the House, Edgar Gomez. Although Gomez --who left Uribe-allied
Citizen Convergence-- is now officially in the opposition, he has
been supportive of continuing Uribe policies, and has publicly said
that he would not actively oppose the GOC but rather would
concentrate on promoting open debates in the House. Gaviria told
the press that Gomez's move to the party was engineered on July 20
during Congressional leadership elections. The Liberals gave Gomez
their support knowing that he would switch allegiances later. The
PDA, the far left opposition party, lost one congressional seat.

RADICAL CHANGE PARTY DISMEMBERED

--------------------------------

8. Radical Change is the biggest loser of the major parties,
dropping by eleven members of Congress with commensurate losses at
the local level. The party, a member of the Uribe congressional
coalition, had already been torn apart internally between those who
opposed the reelection referendum -- led by party president and
presidential candidate German Vargas Lleras -- and those who
supported it. The party began disciplinary hearings against five
representatives who defied party orders and voted for the
referendum prompting them and four others to desert to the U Party
before the deadline. Now that the staunch Uribe loyalists have
left the party, the party continues with less power, but more
united behind the presidential candidacy of Vargas Lleras. Vargas
Lleras announced that the party was not passing to the opposition
but that it disagreed with the possible reelection of President
Uribe.

SMALL PARTIES AN ENDANGERED SPECIES

-----------------------------------

9. At least 8 of the currently 16 legally recognized parties are
at risk of disappearing after losing members to larger parties.
Party consolidation was a key objective of both the 2009 and
previous 2003 political reforms. Consolidation is intended to
create stability in the party system and define clear party
platforms and divisions between the government and opposition.
Fewer parties will also help the National Electoral Council (CNE)
to distribute state funds for campaigns efficiently (the Colombian
system is a mix of public and private funding) and enforce
electoral laws.

LOCAL IMPACT

------------

10. National trends were also played out at the local level. The
U Party added to their growing local presence -- 2007 was the first
time they participated in local elections -- drastically increasing
their number of municipal counselors from 1,280 to 2,080 and
departmental legislators from 59 to 101. The traditional Liberal
Party also fared well and remains the strongest party locally,
adding 500 municipal counselors for a total of 3,000.

ELECTION SEASON LOOMS BUT RULES OF THE GAME UNKNOWN

--------------------------------------------- ------

11. Many 2009 reforms require a second law to establish
implementing regulations. Congress is currently considering two
versions of the law, one presented by the GOC and the other by
members of Congress from across the political spectrum and written
in collaboration with the United Nations Development Program. The
GOC and political parties are in negotiations to reconcile the
texts but election rules will remain unclear until a compromise is
reached. Reforms needing implementing regulations involve campaign
finance, sanctions for electoral law violations, and rules to
increase internal party democracy. Also undefined are the
principles of gender equity and a "special regimen" for
marginalized territories. One change that will have a significant
impact on the next presidential election is the ability to have a
multi-party primary to select a coalition candidate.

12. Some new rules, similar to party switching, have already made
an impact. The first was the requirement for public and
individually counted votes to allow public review of voting records
and for parties to manage party discipline. Before the reform,
legislators would often simply bang on their desks to indicate
approval for a measure. Another is the "vacant seat" provision to
punish parties whose members are convicted of crimes related to
narcotrafficking, illegally armed groups, and crimes against
humanity. Previously, when an office holder was removed, the party
simply replaced that person with the next candidate on the party's
election list. With the new provision, the party would lose the
seat permanently, and the quorum and majorities would be adjusted
accordingly. In 2014, a higher threshold (3% of total votes as
opposed to 2%) will further limit the number of officially
recognized political parties.
BROWNFIELD

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