Cablegate: Srsg Angelo Confirms Massive Defection From Rebel

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OO RUEHBC RUEHBZ RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHKUK RUEHMA
RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNJ #0381 2471535
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 041535Z SEP 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7215
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY

UNCLAS NDJAMENA 000381

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

STATE FOR AF/C, S/USSES
NSC FOR GAVIN
LONDON FOR POL - LORD
PARIS FOR POL - BAIN AND KANEDA
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF MOPS MARR SU LY PKO CD
SUBJECT: SRSG ANGELO CONFIRMS MASSIVE DEFECTION FROM REBEL
RANKS, AS ARAB AND OUADDAIAN FIGHTERS RETURN TO CHAD

REF: A. NDJAMENA 368
B. NDJAMENA 355
C. NDJAMENA 353

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MASSIVE REBEL RETURN
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1. (SBU) MINURCAT SRSG Victor Angelo told Ambassador
September 3 that he could confirm that as many as 1,500
former Chad rebels crossed back into Chad from Sudan in the
past few days.

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SOUBIANE AND HASSABALLAH
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2. (SBU) Angelo said that the ex-rebels were from Ahmat
Soubiane's FSR and Adouma Hassaballah's UFDD-Fundamental
formations. Soubiane's fighters are primarily ethnic Arabs;
Hassaballah's group is composed of Ouaddaians, easterners who
include ethnic Arabs as well as other tribes.

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COMMENT
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3. (SBU) If the SRSG's information is correct, this looks
to be the biggest single defection from the rebel ranks since
Mahamat Nour and his FUC fighters (heavily Tama ethnic group)
returned to Chad in 2006. This massive defection reduces the
strength of the rebellion militarily and isolates the
"hardliners" like Timane Erdimi and Mahamat Nouri
politically, while underlining the latter's dependence on
Sudanese sponsorship and largesse.

4. (SBU) This also validates the continued efficacy of the
GOC's "intra-Chadian" diplomatic strategy (See Refs B and C).
Now the trick for the GOC will be to get these former rebel
chiefs usefully and permanently engaged in Chad, as for
example the Deby regime has so far been able to do with
current Army Chief of Staff Al-Djineddi, and but was unable
to sustain with Mahamat Nour, whose tour of duty as Defense
Minister (March-December 2007) ended unhappily. END COMMENT.

5. (U) Minimize considered.

NIGRO

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