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Cablegate: (S/Nf) Bahrain: Emergent Princes Nasir and Khalid

VZCZCXYZ0011
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHC #5048 2811652
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
R 081632Z OCT 09
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO AMEMBASSY MANAMA 6814

S E C R E T STATE 105048

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2034
TAGS: PINR PGOV BA
SUBJECT: (S/NF) BAHRAIN: EMERGENT PRINCES NASIR AND KHALID

Classified By: MICHAEL P. OWENS, ACTING DIR, INR/OPS. REASON: 1.4(C).

1. (S/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS OBSERVE PRINCE NASIR BIN HAMAD AL KHALIFA AND PRINCE KHALID BIN HAMAD AL KHALIFA TO BE IMPORTANT EMERGING TARGETS OF LEADERSHIP ANALYSIS FOR THE BAHRAINI ROYAL FAMILY. WE CURRENTLY LACK BASELINE REPORTING TO ASSESS THEIR SCOPE OF INFLUENCE WITHIN THE FAMILY, PERSONALITY TRAITS, AND COGNITIVE PROFILE, AND WOULD GREATLY APPRECIATE ANY INSIGHTS POST COULD PROVIDE ON THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS, AS TIME AND RESOURCES ALLOW AND AS INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE:

A. (S/NF) WHAT IS THE PRINCE'S BIRTH DATE, LEVEL OF ENGLISH PROFICIENCY, AND EDUCATIONAL HISTORY?

B. (S/NF) DOES HE HOLD AN OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT POSITION? IF SO, WHAT IS THE SCOPE OF HIS RESPONSIBILITIES? WHAT OTHER POSITIONS HAS HE HELD, IF ANY (SUCH AS UNOFFICIAL LEADERSHIP POSITIONS)? HOW EFFECTIVE WAS HE IN THOSE POSITIONS, IF ANY?

C. (S/NF) WHAT IS THE PRINCE'S ROLE WITHIN THE MILITARY? WHAT IS THE SCOPE OF HIS RESPONSIBILITIES? HOW DOES THE RANK-AND-FILE OF THE MILITARY VIEW HIM? DOES HE HAVE CREDIBILITY AMONG THE MILITARY? ARE THERE SEGMENTS OF THE MILITARY WHO DISLIKE HIM OR ARE DISLOYAL TO HIM?

D. (S/NF) WHAT ARE THE PRINCE'S ROLE AND LEVEL OF INFLUENCE WITHIN THE ROYAL FAMILY? WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE PRINCE AND EACH OF THE FOLLOWING: KING HAMAD, CROWN PRINCE SALMAN, PRIME MINISTER KHALIFA, AND ALI BIN KHALIFA (PRIME MINISTER'S SON)? IS THERE A RIVALRY BETWEEN THE PRINCE AND CROWN PRINCE SALMAN? IF SO, WHAT IS THE NATURE OF THIS RIVALRY? HAS IT CAUSED PROBLEMS WITHIN THE FAMILY?

E. (S/NF) HOW DOES MATRILINEAGE IMPACT THE PRINCE'S ROLES OR LEVELS OF INFLUENCE? DOES THE PRINCE'S MOTHER (SHIA BINT HASSAN AL AJMAN) MAINTAIN CONTACT OR INFLUENCE WITH KING HAMAD?

F. (S/NF) WHAT IS THE PRINCE'S HEALTH STATUS? WHAT IS HIS HEALTH HISTORY, ARE THERE ANY CHRONIC ILLNESSES OR CHILDHOOD DISEASES?

G. (S/NF) WHAT IS HIS VIEW OF THE UNITED STATES? HAS HE EVER VISITED THE UNITED STATES? DOES HE OWN US PROPERTY?

H. (S/NF) WHAT ARE HIS PREDOMINANT PERSONALITY TRAITS? IS HE INTROVERTED OR EXTROVERTED? DOES HE MAKE COGENT ARGUMENTS IN MEETINGS? IS HE DETAIL-ORIENTED? DOES HE UNDERSTAND COMPLEX SYSTEMS OR POLICIES? DOES HE READ NEWSPAPERS? WHICH ONES? DOES HE TAKE INTEREST IN ANY SPECIFIC SUBJECTS? WHAT KIND OF BOOKS DOES HE READ?

I. (S/NF) WHAT ARE THE PRINCE'S KEY VIEWS ON RELIGION? IS HE A PRACTICING MUSLIM? HOW DOES HE VIEW THE SHIA, DOES HE HAVE ANY SHIA FRIENDS? WHAT ARE HIS VIEWS FOR HOW THE RULING FAMILY SHOULD ADDRESS THE SHIA MAJORITY IN BAHRAIN?

J. (S/NF) DOES HE HAVE STRONG CONNECTIONS TO BUSINESSES, FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS, OR RULING FAMILIES? FOR PRINCE NASIR -- WHO IS HE MARRYING?

K. (S/NF) WHAT ARE THE PRINCE'S GOALS AND AMBITIONS? DOES HE DESIRE A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROLE WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT? WHAT ARE HIS INTERESTS AND HOBBIES?

L. (S/NF) IS THERE ANY DEROGATORY INFORMATION ON EITHER PRINCE? DOES EITHER PRINCE DRINK ALCOHOL? DOES EITHER ONE USE DRUGS?
CLINTON

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