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Cablegate: Somalia Fy 2010 Disaster Redeclaration

INFO LOG-00 COR-00 EEB-00 AF-00 AGRE-00 AMAD-00 CA-00
CIAE-00 INL-00 DNI-00 DODE-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EUR-00
UTED-00 VCI-00 FDRE-01 H-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
LAB-01 MOFM-00 MOF-00 CDC-00 VCIE-00 DCP-00 NSAE-00
OIC-00 NIMA-00 EPAU-00 PA-00 MCC-00 PER-00 GIWI-00
SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 FMP-00 CBP-00 EPAE-00 SCRS-00
DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 FA-00 SWCI-00
PESU-00 /002W

R 010622Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1197
INFO SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
USMISSION UN ROME
NSC WASHDC
CJTF HOA
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002079


AIDAC

USAID/DCHA FOR JBRAUSE
DCHA/OFDA FOR ACONVERY, KCHANNELL, APIYAKA
DCHA/FFP FOR JBORNS, JDWORKEN, SANTHONY, CMUTAMBA,
PMOHAN,DNELSON
AFR/EA
STATE FOR AF/E, AF/F AND PRM
USUN FOR DMERCADO
ROME FOR HSPANOS
BRUSSELS FOR PBROWN
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA FY 2010 DISASTER REDECLARATION

CORRECTED COPY

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SUMMARY
-------

1. According to the U.N. Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) Food Security and Nutrition Analysis
Unit (FSNAU), nearly 3.8 million people require
humanitarian assistance in Somalia, representing 50
percent of the total population and a 17 percent
increase since January 2009. The combined effects of
consecutive seasons of failed or poor rainfall,
conflict, high food prices, significant population
displacement, and diarrheal disease outbreaks have
severely exacerbated food insecurity and resulted in
increased malnutrition rates throughout Somalia.
Humanitarian organizations are also expecting enhanced
rains associated with El Nino conditions during the
upcoming October to December rainy season to result in
flooding, reduced access, and increased incidences of
human and livestock water-related diseases. It is in
the interest of the U.S. Government (USG) to provide
humanitarian funding, the situation is beyond the
capacity of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG)
to manage and the Somali people will continue to accept
USG assistance. Ambassador Michael Ranneberger
therefore re-declares a disaster for the complex
humanitarian emergency in Somalia and requests the
continued provision of disaster assistance in fiscal
year 2010. End summary.

----------
BACKGROUND
----------

2. According to FSNAU, nearly 3.8 million Somalis
require humanitarian assistance through December 2009.
The total includes approximately 1.4 million rural,
drought-affected individuals; an estimated 655,000
urban poor confronting high food and non-food prices;
and nearly 1.6 million internally displaced persons
(IDPs).

3. The majority of affected populations are
concentrated in central Somalia, accounting for
approximately 75 percent of the total population in
need of humanitarian assistance. Middle Shabelle,
Mudug, Galgadud, and Hiran regions represent the
largest concentrations of affected populations.
However, FSNAU notes the presence of deteriorating food
security and nutrition conditions among pastoral and
agro-pastoral communities in northern areas, as well.

4. In the context of escalating insecurity and civil
conflict, FSNAU also highlights the potential for a
further deterioration in humanitarian conditions and
increased impediments and access restrictions
confronting response efforts in the coming months.

-----------------------------
AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY
-----------------------------

5. Despite a normal gu season harvest in most southern
agricultural areas, results of the 2009 post gu
assessment indicate deteriorating food security
conditions throughout Somalia. According to the USAID-
supported Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS
NET), poor or failed April to June gu rains in 70
percent of the country, combined with previous rain
failure, have led to deteriorating food security and
intensifying drought conditions in Hiran, Galgadud,
Nugal, Sool, Sanaag, Togdheer, and Mudug regions. In
addition, FEWS NET reports that insecurity along the
road linking southern and central regions is expected
to hamper cereal flows from southern regions to cereal-
deficient areas in central and northern Somalia.

6. In addition, FSNAU reported poor gu rains in parts
of Lower Juba Region, as well as northern Gedo and
Bakool regions. FSNAU projects a 70 percent decline in
crop production below the five-year average in the
northern regions of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and
Togdheer. In northern pastoral areas, humanitarian
agencies have also expressed concern regarding
deteriorating livestock conditions and milk production
due to significant water and pasture shortages.

7. High prices also continue to negatively affect food
access and increase food insecurity throughout Somalia.
Although FSNAU reported local cereal prices 40 to 60
percent lower in June than the same time period in 2008
in southern regions of Somalia, prices remain
significantly above long-term averages. FSNAU notes
that the positive impact of declining food prices and
improving labor opportunities have been undermined by
reduced remittance flows associated with the global
economic downturn.

--------------------
HEALTH AND NUTRITION
--------------------

8. Findings from 33 recent FSNAU nutritional surveys
conducted as part of the 2009 Somalia post gu seasonal
assessment confirm critical malnutrition conditions in
central and southern Somalia, as well as parts of
northwest and northeast regions. According to FSNAU,
approximately one in five children is acutely
malnourished and one in 20 is severely malnourished in
Somalia, with a national median global acute
malnutrition rate of 19 percent, significantly above
the U.N. World Health Organization (WHO) emergency
threshold of 15 percent. Currently, FSNAU estimates
that 285,000 children under the age of five in Somalia
are acutely malnourished, including 70,000 severely
malnourished children requiring nutrition
interventions.

9. FSNAU identified high morbidity, disease outbreaks,
limited access to basic services, and poor child care
practices as major contributing factors to elevated
malnutrition conditions. Inadequate water and
sanitation services represent a significant underlying
cause of increased disease outbreaks and malnutrition.
According to FSNAU, only an estimated 11.3 percent of
the rural population has access to adequate levels of
safe water and 12.6 percent has access to safe
sanitation facilities, resulting in widespread
prevalence of diarrhea in young children.

-----------------------
POPULATION DISPLACEMENT
-----------------------

10. Since an escalation in renewed conflict beginning
in early May, fighting has displaced more than 250,000
individuals as of August 21, according to the Office of
the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Recent
gu assessment results report a revised IDP displacement
total of approximately 1.3 million individuals since
February 2007, in addition to an estimated 275,000
longer-term IDPs.

-------------------
SECURITY AND ACCESS
-------------------

11. Conflict and increased attacks targeting aid
agencies have led to temporary suspensions in
activities and diminishing access, hindering the
delivery of humanitarian assistance to IDPs and
conflict-affected populations. According to the U.N.,
as of August 19, assailants had killed 42 aid workers
and abducted 33 others in Somalia since January 2008.
In addition, an increase in armed militia group attacks
against UN and NGO compounds in recent months has
resulted in the seizure of humanitarian assets and
relocation of aid staff. The volatile and fluid
environment of southern and central Somalia continues
to restrict humanitarian access and undermine response
efforts.

------------------
Potential Flooding
------------------

12. FEWS NET reports an increased likelihood of near
to above-normal rainfall for most of Somalia during the
next October to December deyr rains positively
impacting agriculture and food security but also
potentially resulting in flooding, reduced access, and
increased incidences of human and livestock water-
related diseases, including Rift Valley Fever, peste
des petits ruminants (PPR), and cholera. In addition,
heavy rains would exacerbate poor shelter conditions
among IDPs.

----------------------
DISASTER REDECLARATION
----------------------

13. As a result of the current and projected
humanitarian needs in Somalia, I declare that a complex
humanitarian emergency continues to exist due to
ongoing insecurity and civil conflict, inter-clan
fighting, disease outbreaks, population displacement,
flooding potential, food insecurity, and livelihood
deterioration. The situation exceeds the capacity of
the TFG and local authorities to effectively respond.
It is in the interest of the USG to provide
humanitarian assistance and the Somali people will
accept continued USG support. Therefore, activities
that address urgent humanitarian needs and seek to
reduce the risk and strengthen the resilience of
vulnerable populations should be eligible for USG
disaster funding in FY 2010.

RANNEBERGER

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