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Cablegate: Kenya Fy 2010 Disaster Redeclaration.

INFO LOG-00 COR-00 EEB-00 AF-00 AGRE-00 AMAD-00 CA-00
CIAE-00 INL-00 DNI-00 DODE-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EUR-00
UTED-00 VCI-00 FDRE-01 H-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00
LAB-01 MOFM-00 MOF-00 VCIE-00 DCP-00 NSAE-00 OIC-00
NIMA-00 EPAU-00 PA-00 MCC-00 PER-00 GIWI-00 SGAC-00
SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 EVR-00 FMP-00 CBP-00 EPAE-00
SCRS-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 DTT-00
FA-00 SWCI-00 PESU-00 /002W

R 010802Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1201
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
AMEMBASSY ASMARA
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USUN ROME IT
USMISSION GENEVA
NSC WASHDC
USEU BRUSSELS

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002081


AIDAC

USAID/DCHA JBRAUSE
DCHA/OFDA FOR PMORRIS; ACONVERY; KCHANNELL; MBEERS;
APIYAKA DCHA/FFP JBORNS; JDWORKEN; SANTHONY; CMUTAMBA;
DNELSON;
USUN FOR DMERCADO
ROME FOR HSPANOS
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH
BRUSSELS FOR USEU JADDLETON; PBROWN
NSC FOR CPRATT

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF KE
SUBJECT: KENYA FY 2010 DISASTER REDECLARATION.

CORRECTED COPY

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SUMMARY
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1. An estimated 3.8 million drought-affected
individuals require emergency food assistance in Kenya,
according to the joint Government of Kenya (GOK), U.N.,
and non-governmental organization (NGO) Kenya Food
Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The poor performance
of the February to June long rains, high staple food
prices, localized conflict, and preceding seasons of
below-normal rainfall have exacerbated existing chronic
poverty conditions and resulted in deteriorated
livestock conditions, significantly disrupting
pastoralist livelihoods and contributing to increased
food insecurity and malnutrition in affected areas.
Humanitarian organizations are also expecting enhanced
rains associated with El Nino conditions during the
upcoming October to December short rains season to
result in flooding, reduced access, and increased
incidences of human and livestock water-related
diseases. The current humanitarian emergency exceeds
the capacity of GOK; the GOK will accept assistance
from the U.S. Government (USG); and it is in the
interest of the USG to provide humanitarian assistance.
U.S. Ambassador Michael Ranneberger therefore re-
declares a disaster for the complex emergency in Kenya
and requests the continued provision of USG disaster
assistance to respond in fiscal year (FY) 2010. End
summary.

----------
BACKGROUND
----------

2. According to the KFSSG, an estimated 3.8 million
drought-affected individuals require emergency food
assistance throughout arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL)
of northern Kenya and southeastern and coastal
lowlands, including Rift Valley, Eastern, Northeastern,
and Coast provinces. In addition, the KFSSG has
identified approximately 2.5 million chronically food
insecure individuals located in urban areas, 100,000
persons displaced by post-election violence, 1.5
million drought-affected primary school students, and 2
million rural HIV/AIDS patients as food insecure
countrywide and in need of humanitarian assistance.

3. In addition, limited GOK emergency response
capacity for industrial accidents, fires, and
infrastructure collapse frequently undermine effective
GOK planning, assessment, and response and increase
population risks.

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Agriculture and Food Security
-----------------------------

4. Due to decreased crop production and limited water
and pasture regeneration during the long rains,
humanitarian agencies expect food insecurity to persist
or increase for pastoralists until the onset of the
October to December 2009 short rains and until the
subsequent February 2010 harvest for farmers.
According to KFSSG, the 2009 long rains performed
poorly in most areas of the country, with four of the
eight provinces of Kenya experiencing less than 40
percent of average rainfall for the season. As a
result of poor or failed rains, KFSSG anticipates a
2009 long rain season maize harvest 28 percent below
the five-year average.

5. In pastoral areas, drought conditions have also
resulted in deteriorating livestock body conditions,
increased incidence and risk of livestock disease, and
early and extended livestock migration patterns.
According to KFSSG, average staple food prices remain
significantly above normal price levels throughout
Kenya, exacerbating food insecurity and resulting in
deteriorating terms of trade, particularly among
pastoral, agro-pastoral, and marginal agricultural
populations. In August, KFSSG reported maize prices
100 to 130 percent higher than normal levels. At the
same time, relief agencies report livestock prices 30
to 50 percent below normal due to poor animal
conditions and livestock migration.

--------------------
Health and Nutrition
--------------------

6. Limited health care system capacity and highly
mobile populations have contributed to disease outbreaks
throughout Kenya, including cholera and the re-
emergence of polio following 25 years of polio-free
status, negatively affecting populations already
vulnerable due to increased food insecurity and
malnutrition. According to the U.N., recent disease
outbreaks have occurred in the context of an overall
decline in health indicators following the 2008 post-
election violence. In late June, the U.N. reported
that vaccination coverage had decreased from 77 percent
prior to the outbreak of the 2008 violence to 66
percent, while disease surveillance capacity had
declined from an estimated 74 to 35 percent.

7. Recent findings from USAID partner and U.N.
Children?s Fund (UNICEF) assessments indicate critical
and deteriorating nutrition conditions throughout the
country, including in areas not previously experiencing
significant global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates. In
June, UNICEF reported approximately 250,000 children
under five years of age as moderately malnourished,
including more than 39,000 severely malnourished
children countrywide. According to UNICEF, acute
malnutrition affects approximately one in five children
in drought-affected Turkana, Mandera, Marsabit, and
Samburu districts in Rift Valley Province.

-----------------------------------
Insecurity and Population Movements
-----------------------------------

8. Relief agencies continue to report concerns
regarding increased inter-ethnic fighting and resource-
related conflicts, particularly in West Pokot and Turkana
districts, Rift Valley Province, and Isiolo District,
Eastern Province. According to the U.N. Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), violence
in pastoral areas killed 242 people between January 1
and August 21, an increase from the 222 reported deaths
during the same time period in 2008. Increased
incidence of livestock theft and inter-ethnic conflict
have also resulted in displacement and depleted
livelihood assets.

------------------
Potential Flooding
------------------

9. El Nino conditions are expected to result in normal
to above-normal rainfall during the upcoming September
to December short rains season, according to the Kenya
Meteorological Department. The USAID-supported Famine
Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) cautions that
heavy rains are likely to result in increased livestock
mortality among weakened animals in drought-affected
areas, flooding, infrastructure damage, reduced
humanitarian and commercial access, and increased
incidents in human and livestock water-related
diseases, such as malaria, diarrheal disease, and Rift
Valley Fever (RVF).

----------------------
DISASTER RE-DECLARATION
----------------------

10. In FY 2009, USAID/DCHA provided nearly USD 160
million in humanitarian assistance to Kenya, including
more than USD 135 million in USAID Office of Food for
Peace (USAID/FFP) food assistance. In addition,
USAID/OFDA assistance totaled more than USD 24 million
in support of nutrition, economic recovery and market
systems, agriculture and food security, and water,
sanitation, and hygiene interventions, as well as local
procurement and distribution of food targeting
vulnerable populations in ASAL and marginal
agricultural areas.

11. As a result of current and projected humanitarian
needs resulting from the cumulative impact of
consecutive seasons of failed or poor rainfall,
localized conflict, and high food prices on increased
food insecurity and malnutrition among vulnerable
populations and potential flooding and associated
disease outbreaks, I re-declare a disaster for the
complex emergency in Kenya in FY 2010. It is beyond
the ability of the GOK to fully address increased
humanitarian needs. The GOK welcomes USG assistance
and it is in the USG?s interest to assist affected
populations and prevent a further deterioration in
humanitarian conditions. Therefore, I request USG
humanitarian resources to address urgent humanitarian
needs and reduce the risk of vulnerable populations in
Kenya.

RANNEBERGER

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