Cablegate: Seoul - Press Bulletin; October 13, 2009

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TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; October 13, 2009

TOP HEADLINES
-------------

Chosun Ilbo
Seoul to Resume Food Aid to N. Korea

JoongAng Ilbo, Seoul Shinmu, All TVs
N. Korea Test-Fires Five Short-Range Missiles

Dong-a Ilbo
ROKG to Form Task Force to Handle
Controversial Sejong City Project

Hankook Ilbo
Behind-the-Scenes Dialogue Underway Between Two Koreas

Hankyoreh Shinmun
Economic Stimulus Measures Pushed by ROKG Cause
Local Government Debts to Jump Four Trillion Won

Segye Ilbo
Ruling GNP Considers Scaling Down Sejong City Project

DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS
---------------------

According to a key ROKG official, Seoul has decided to resume
humanitarian food aid to North Korea which has been suspended since
the summer of 2007, and is reviewing the timing and size of such
aid. (Chosun)

According to Unification Ministry Spokesman Chun Hae-sung, the ROKG
yesterday proposed to North Korea two separate talks to discuss the
prevention of flooding at a river that runs across the border as
well as the resumption of reunions for separated families. (All)

According to a senior ruling party official, behind-the-scenes talks
are underway between the two Koreas to discuss pending bilateral
issues, including the resumption of tours to Mt. Kumgang in North
Korea. (Hankook)

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
------------------

According to an ROKG source, North Korea yesterday test-fired five
short-range KN-02 surface-to-surface missiles off its east coast.
The tests came hours after the ROKG proposed inter-Korean talks on
humanitarian issues. (All)

MEDIA ANALYSIS
--------------
-N. Korea
----------
The ROK media on Monday gave wide attention to Chinese Premier Wen
Jiabao's press remarks made after an Oct. 10 summit in Beijing with
the ROK and Japan. The Chinese premier was quoted as saying: "North
Korea appeared 'flexible' about the Six-Party Talks. The North
wants to improve ties not only with the U.S. but also with the ROK
and Japan. This is the chance to hold talks with North Korea."

Conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized: "What is important is
whether any talks that take place can actually persuade North Korea
to abandon its nuclear weapons and contribute to the prosperity of
Northeast Asia. Before the U.S.-North Korea talks, the countries in
the Six-Party Talks must first come up with a consensus about how
they want to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. The success or
failure of a solution for the nuclear crisis depends on whether the
ROK, China, Japan and the U.S. can unite behind a feasible solution
rather than just words."

SEOUL 00001618 002 OF 004

Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo's editorial, meanwhile, argued: "North
Korea has yet to specifically express its willingness to give up its
nuclear ambitions. ... China seems to have decided to strengthen its
mediation role in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue following
Chinese Premier Wen's visit to Pyongyang. ... However, it is
doubtful whether China is making sufficient efforts to live up to
international expectations."

Citing an ROKG source, all ROK media today reported on North Korea's
test-firing yesterday of five short-range KN-02 surface-to-surface
missiles off its east coast. Most media cited ROK officials as
viewing the tests as routine military exercises. Conservative
Chosun Ilbo, however, speculated that the tests may be the North's
saber-rattling, given the country's unresolved request for the
return of North Koreans who recently defected to the ROK by sea.
Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo, meanwhile, conjectured that North
Korea may be aiming to gain the upper hand in the run-up to
bilateral and multilateral talks on its nuclear program.

-President Obama's Nobel Peace Prize
--------------------------------------
Conservative Dong-a Ilbo editorialized on Monday: "The Norwegian
Nobel Committee's extraordinary decision may have meant that
President Obama and the U.S. should understand the dignity and
significance of Nobel Peace Prize and devote more efforts to world
peace. ... President Obama's visions noted by the Nobel Committee
cannot be easily accomplished. In order to reduce arms in the world
and to make the world nuclear-free, President Obama should sign a
follow-on agreement to START-1 with Russia and get North Korea and
Iran to dismantle their nuclear programs. These definitely are not
simple tasks. The world is expecting bold challenges from President
Obama."

OPINIONS/EDITORIALS
-------------------

KIM JONG-IL'S CONDITIONAL RETURN TO SIX-PARTY TALKS
(Dong-a Ilbo, October 13, 2009, Page 38; Excerpts)

By Han Seung-joo, former Foreign Minister and current Korean
University Professor

At a meeting with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, which was held during
the 60th anniversary of the establishment of Sino-North Korea
diplomatic ties, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il pocketed many
benefits. He was promised economic aid from China, raised the
possibility of bilateral talks with the U.S., and enhanced his own
standing and authority over the communist state. What is most
noteworthy is, however, that Pyongyang shifted the attention of
other nations away from the North's denuclearization and
international sanctions against the North for its nuclear possession
and tests to the Six-Party Talks.

However, the reason why the Six-Party Talks itself became a
bargaining chip for the North is that other Six-Party nations
stressed the importance of the multilateral talks and showed an
obsession with the talks, thereby increasing the price for
Pyongyang's return to it. By declaring its resumption of nuclear
activities and boycott of the Six-Party Talks, North Korea created a
situation where Six-Party countries had to focus their diplomatic
efforts on persuading the North to return to the Six-Party Talks.
When North Korean leader Kim mentioned the Six-Party Talks during
the recent meeting with the visiting Chinese Premier, it appeared as
if there was a diplomatic progress.

Kim not only succeeded in raising the price of the Six-Party Talks
but also set conditions for the North's return to the talks. Now
it is the North that decides if there is any result from bilateral
dialogue. With no clear criteria for judging whether a certain
outcome is satisfactory or not, even if the North drags its feet
over rejoining the Six-Party Talks, other Six-Party nations, such as
the U.S. and China, will have no countermeasure against the North's

SEOUL 00001618 003 OF 004

stalling tactics. In addition, if an outcome of U.S.-North Korea
bilateral dialogue is not satisfactory, the North now has an excuse
to pass the responsibility for the collapse of the talks to the
U.S.

Now that Pyongyang has succeeded in making other Six-Party nations
seek the Six-Party Talks, there is little chance that the North is
denuclearized. Even if the North rejoins the Six-Party Talks, it
does not necessarily mean the resolution of the North Korean nuclear
issue, that is, the complete denuclearization of the North. This is
because, even if the North returns to the talks and reaches an
agreement, it will slice up bargaining trade-offs into thin slices
to gain as many concessions as possible and postpone taking an
important step. Breaking this vicious cycle of
"crisis-negotiation-agreement-abrogation" is the goal of the "grand
bargain" or "comprehensive package," which is pursued by the ROK and
the U.S.

What the Six-Party nations, excluding the North, can do at this
moment is to devise a joint strategy for resolving the North Korean
nuclear issue and to closely cooperate to implement it under the
basic principle of a nuclear-free North.

ROK'S RETRIEVAL OF WARTIME OPERATIONAL CONTROL FROM U.S. IS FOOLISH

(JoongAng Ilbo, October 13, 2009, page 47: Excerpts)

By Senior journalist Moon Chang-geuk

The Roh Moo-hyun Administration underscored "self-reliance." This
position meant dismantling the alliance between the ROK and the U.S.
with the goal of retrieving wartime operational control from the
U.S. Few Koreans will voice opposition to self-reliant defense. It
is so natural for us to defend our territory with our own power.
The question is whether the ROK has such a capability.

Presidents of the ROK and the U.S. hold the position as
commanders-in-chief (of their nation's armed forces.) However, in
the U.S., many professional military officers state their personal
opinions (even if they oppose the President.) Examples include
Supreme Commander MacArthur who stepped down due to conflicts with
President Truman during the Korean War, other generals who withdrew
from their duties due to their opposition to the U.S. government's
Iraq operation, and recently Commander General McChrystal who openly
objected to President Obama's Afghan policy. Armed forces
professionals should shoulder the responsibility to protect the
security of their country. Did the ROK defense minister and
military leaders live up to their professional obligations when they
signed on to an agreement to dismantle the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces
Command despite their awareness that the ROK will not be fully
prepared to transfer wartime operational control until April 2012?

Let's assume that the wartime operational control has been
transferred to the ROK. How will the ROK respond to any attack by a
nuclear-armed North Korea? The ROKG realized that, based on the
2007 simulation results conducted by the National Emergency Planning
Commission, a nuclear bomb attack could cause 500,000 to a million
casualties in Seoul. Despite this knowledge, did the ROK think that
it could achieve self-defense only by taking over wartime control?
We will end up being a permanent hostage to North Korea. We should
keep our eyes more wide-open. Look at China, which grew as the
world's second largest military power. We should ask ourselves
whether this small country neighboring China could protect itself
only by calling for self-defense. Why are we so impatient to
destroy the established walls of security? We should "hold onto"
the U.S. until at least the North Korean nuclear issue is resolved
and, from the long perspective, collective security takes hold so
that Northeast Asian countries can trust one another. We should
not stick to the goal of misplaced self-reliance any longer. The
ROK should enter into renegotiations (with the U.S.) over the
transfer of wartime control.

SEOUL 00001618 004 OF 004

OBAMA WINS NOBEL PEACE PRIZE
(Dong-a Ilbo, October 12, 2009, page 35)

The world showed mixed reactions to U.S. President Barack Obama'
designation as this year's Nobel peace laureate. Critics say that
he is not fully qualified to win the prize because he has been in
office less than nine months and his visions assessed by the
Norwegian Nobel Committee have not yet been accomplished. The
Norwegian Nobel Committee's extraordinary decision may have meant
that President Obama and the U.S. should understand the dignity and
significance of Nobel Peace Prize and devote more efforts to world
peace.

Announcing the award, the Nobel Committee said that President Obama
gave the world "hope for a better future." Elected the first black
president in U.S. history, he sent a strong message to the world to
ease racial and religious conflicts. His visions, including "a
nuclear free world," are gaining momentum as a global task. In
response to the Committee's decision, Obama rightly said that he
"would accept it as a "call to action" to work with other nations to
solve the problems of the 21st century."

President Obama redefined the way the U.S. deals with international
issues in a new manner even though he has not yielded tangible
results in a short time. Unlike his predecessors, Obama is gaining
high support for trying to jointly tackle issues with countries
concerned through dialogue and cooperation, without resorting to
unilateralism.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee also said, "Obama has as President
created a new climate in international politics. Multilateral
diplomacy has regained a central position, with emphasis on the role
that the United Nations and other international institutions can
play. Dialogue and negotiations are preferred as instruments for
resolving even the most difficult international conflicts."
President Obama and the U.S. should make more efforts to promote
this model for resolving international issues.

President Obama decided to close down the controversial Guantnamo
Bay prison and returned to the process of concluding a climate
change treaty, from which former President George W. Bush withdrew.
This course of action is appropriate in light of universal values of
humanity, regardless of controversy in the U.S. over President
Obama's Nobel Peace prize. He has consistently sent North Korea and
Iran a message that their nuclear weapons will not be tolerated.
North Korea should bear in mind the fact that the Nobel Committee
thought highly of President Obama's vision for a
nuclear-weapons-free world.

President Obama's visions noted by the Nobel Committee cannot be
easily accomplished. In order to reduce arms in the world and to
make the world nuclear-free, President Obama should sign a follow-on
agreement to START-1 with Russia and get North Korea and Iran to
dismantle their nuclear programs. These definitely are not simple
tasks. The world is expecting bold challenges from President Obama.

STEPHENS

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