Cablegate: Egyptian Mfa Advisor On Sudan, Nile Basin

VZCZCXRO6720
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHEG #2195/01 3280624
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 240624Z NOV 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4319
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHJB/AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA 0007
RUEHDR/AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 0093
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 0161
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 1390
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1362

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 002195

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, AF/SPG, AF/E, ADDIS ABABA FOR
BAUMAN, OES FOR SALZBERG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019
TAGS: PREL SU BY TZ UG EG
SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN MFA ADVISOR ON SUDAN, NILE BASIN REF: 08 CAIRO 1963 Classified By: Minister Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs Donald A. Blome for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).
1.(C) Key Points: -- The Egyptian MFA's cabinet advisor on African Affairs Mohamed El Mullah said the Government of Egypt (GoE) will continue to support the unity of Sudan until the January 2011 referendum. However, he said Egypt will accept and support the South if it chooses independence. -- According to El Mullah, President Mubarak agreed with a proposal by Sudanese President Bashir for Egypt to host a conference on Darfur reconstruction after the signing of a peace accord. Egypt also supports a French proposal for a summit in Sharm El Sheikh to discuss how to deal with the outcome of the January 2011 referendum. -- A recent joint MFA and Ministry of Water Resources trip to upstream Nile Basin countries to discuss the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) did not produce any significant results, according to El Mullah. He said Egypt offered to help upstream countries develop hydro-electric power, but maintained that Egypt's quota of water must not be affected.

2.(C) Comment: Egyptian officials have emphasized the importance of preserving Sudan's unity in their public statements, even as they have carefully hedged their bets by maintaining close ties to the South (reftel). El Mullah's comments provide some clarity to this contingency planning. In the end, stability will be Egypt's paramount concern because it will guarantee continued access to Nile water and limit the potential flow of refugees. --------------------------------------------- -- Egypt Prefers Unity, But Planning for Secession --------------------------------------------- --

3.(C) Mohamed El Mullah, Egyptian MFA Cabinet Advisor on African Affairs told us on November 10 that Egypt will continue to support the unity of Sudan up until the January 2011 referendum. He said Egypt is concerned about the "dangerous repercussions" of Southern independence, but will accept and support the South if it chooses independence. El Mullah stated that Egypt is undertaking multiple development projects to improve the quality of life in South Sudan in the event of separation. --------------------------------------------- -------------- Egypt to Host Meetings on Referendum, Darfur Reconstruction --------------------------------------------- --------------

4.(C) El Mullah told us that Egypt supports a proposal by French President Sarkozy for a summit to discuss how to deal with potential outcomes of the January 2011 referendum such as wealth sharing and institutional separation. The summit would be held on the margins of the France-Africa summit in Sharm El Sheikh in February 2010, and would include representation from Egypt, France, Sudan, U.S. and the countries bordering Sudan. El Mullah said the President Bashir would attend and asked about the potential for the U.S. representative to meet with him.

5.(C) According to El Mullah, President Mubarak agreed to host a conference on Darfur Reconstruction proposed by Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir during a November 8 meeting. He said the conference will be co-sponsored by the Government of Turkey and the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC). El Mullah stated that the conference will take place after the signing of a peace accord between Khartoum and Darfuri groups. ------------------------------------------ Nile Basin Trip Yields No Tangible Results ------------------------------------------

6.(C) El Mullah said an October 25-November 5 joint MFA and Ministry of Water Resources trip to Burundi, Tanzania, and Uganda to discuss the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) had not resulted in any breakthroughs. He stated that the challenge during the bilateral meetings was "trying not to quarrel" CAIRO 00002195 002 OF 002 over a resource that should be for the benefit of all the people of the Nile Basin. El Mullah said Egypt offered to help develop hydro-electric power plants in the three upstream countries, but maintained that the quantity and quality of water reaching Egypt cannot be reduced. He said the GoE's position is that the current draft Cooperative Framework Agreement is only a basis for negotiations and no agreement can be reached or implemented unless all NBI countries agree. He said that there would be another joint trip to Kenya and the Democratic Republic of Congo in the near future to discuss the NBI. Scobey

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