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Cablegate: Ukraine: H1n1 Update

VZCZCXRO7625
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHKV #1990/01 3171505
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 131505Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8816
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA PRIORITY
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001990

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KIPR CDC SOCI PREL AMED CASC XH UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: H1N1 UPDATE

REF: A) KYIV 01893 B) KYIV 01911

KYIV 00001990 001.2 OF 002


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION

1. (U) Summary. With the flu epidemic spreading across Ukraine,
President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko continue to blame
each other over the response to the outbreak. Yushchenko vowed on
Wednesday to veto a bill, pushed through the Verkhovna Rada
(Parliament) by Tymoshenko, that would direct the National Bank of
Ukraine (NBU) to allocate UAH 1 billion ($125 million) to fight the
flu. Yushchenko said such step would lead to further devaluation of
the hryvnia and urged the government to use budget funds instead.
Tymoshenko accused the President of undermining the government's
efforts to successfully combat the outbreak and said he would "be
responsible for every person who is ill today or dies." Against
this backdrop, local health authorities are scrambling to bring the
virus under control, procure and distribute medical supplies and
equipment, and enact token measures like the mandatory wearing of
surgical masks in some parts of the country. End Summary.

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FLU STATISTICS
--------------

2. (U) The Ministry of Health reported 239 deaths associated with
influenza and acute respiratory viral infections in Ukraine as of
November 12. H1N1 has been confirmed in 85 cases, including 16
cases which resulted in deaths. Eighteen regions, including the
city of Kyiv and now oblasts in eastern Ukraine, reported
epidemic-level outbreaks. An additional seven regions were nearing
the epidemic threshold.

3. (U) There have been conflicting accounts about the spread of the
virus. Some commentators reported that the outbreak has passed its
peak and is on a decline while others warned that the virus is
spreading. A WHO team, which has been in Ukraine since November 2
investigating the outbreak, characterized the outbreak as the first
wave of a flu epidemic, with a second, longer wave likely to arrive
later this winter. At the same time, the WHO team leader Jukka
Pukkila warned, "it is extremely hard to foresee the further
development of the epidemic in Ukraine, as in other countries of the
world."

FIGHT OVER MEASURES
-------------------

4. (SBU) Ukraine's politicians continue using the flu outbreak to
boost their own position and discredit their political opponents.
In the latest public spat over the handling of the epidemic,
Tymoshenko accused Yushchenko of sabotaging the government's effort
to combat the flu, after the President vowed to veto a spending bill
that would have forced the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to print
money to finance anti-flu measures proposed by the government. "The
President will be responsible for every person who is ill today or
dies," Tymoshenko said. Yushchenko maintained his prerogative to
veto the bill: "I will not be the author of such a policy. I don't
need to be blackmailed." The President called Tymoshenko's policies
excessive and said the adoption of the bill would lead to further
deterioration of the economy and a weakening of the hryvnia. NBU
executives stated that the central bank does not have the money to
support any extra-budgetary measures (Ref B).

5. (U) Earlier in November, the government had said it would need
UAH 3 billion ($375 million) to fight the flu. With its budget
stretched and the President balking at the GOU's efforts to force
the NBU to print money, serious questions have arisen about
Tymoshenko's ability to pay for the planned measures. Her
government had reportedly allocated UAH 50 million ($6.25 million)
to prepare the country for the annual flu season and the potential
outbreak of pandemic influenza. Since the 2009 flu epidemic was
officially confirmed on October 30, the GOU managed to gather an
additional UAH 500 million ($62.5 million) to fund procurements of
the antiviral drug Tamiflu and other medicines.

GOVERNMENT MEASURES
-------------------

6. (SBU) Ukraine announced strict measures to combat the spread of
the flu, including canceling schools and quarantining worst hit
areas (Ref A). However, local interpretation of the measures seems
to vary. In Kyiv, the Ministry of Culture ordered all theaters shut
down but allowed other events, like the Champions League soccer
match between Dynamo Kyiv and Inter Milan, to be played as
scheduled. In some cities, local authorities have demanded that
people wear surgical masks when in public, while other
municipalities merely recommend the measure.

UKRAINIAN "TAMIFLU" RUNS AFOUL OF PATENT LAW

KYIV 00001990 002.2 OF 002


--------------------------------------------

7. (U) In one piece of good news, Zdorovya, a Kharkiv-based
pharmaceutical company, announced on November 10 that it has begun
producing Tamivir, a Ukrainian version of Tamiflu. This move could
relieve pressure on the government's limited supply of antiviral
drugs. However, the announcement was quickly followed by a
complaint from Switzerland-based drug maker Roche that Zdorovya's
production of Tamivir had violated international patent laws. Roche
reportedly has patent coverage for Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) in Ukraine
and has not given permission to Zdorovya to produce a generic
version of the drug.

COMMENT
-------

8. (SBU) With a 2009 budget in severe deficit, Ukraine has few
resources to fight the flu, particularly if the situation
dramatically escalates. Furthermore, it is beset with complications
resulting from the intense rivalry between Ukraine's authorities.
It is unclear whether the government has a viable strategy for its
own limited resources and those donated by international donors.
The findings of the WHO team, which are expected shortly, could
provide some clarity on policy steps and assistance priorities.

PETTIT

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