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Cablegate: Brazil On the Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan

VZCZCXRO6910
RR RUEHRG
DE RUEHBR #1401/01 3372017
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 032016Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0005
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0001
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0001
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 0003
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 001401

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL AF PK BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL ON THE WAY FORWARD IN AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN

REF: 09 SECSTATE 122731

1. (U) Summary: The GOB's outlook on Afghanistan is pessimistic, and it is skeptical that additional military forces can make the situation better. The GOB nevertheless believes in the Obama Administration's "good intentions," and Brazil is willing to participate in Afghanistan's "civil reconstruction process." End Summary.

2. (U) Approximately four hours before President Obama's December 1 announcement on Afghanistan and Pakistan, Charge d'Affaires Lisa Kubiske previewed U.S. strategy with Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MRE) Under Secretary for Asia Roberto Jaguaribe and sought the GOB's support for U.S. and international efforts to bring peace and stability to the region.

3. (U) Jaguaribe said that the GOB has "a solid belief in the good intentions" of the USG but is skeptical that additional military resources will help the situation. He noted what he described as "a Catch 22": The more Afghanistan is seen to be reliant on U.S. military power, the less he and the United States are acceptable to the Afghan population. Yet, without U.S. military support, Karzai falls. The trick is finding the right balance.

4. (U) Jaguaribe cited 19th Century Portuguese novelist and diplomat Eca de Queiroz who mocked Britain's "great victory over Afghanistan," which Queiroz wrote would have to be repeated every 10 to 15 years. Charge noted that today the goal of international forces is not conquest but the contrary, building the capacity of the Afghan people so that they can defend their sovereignty. We are accelerating training of the Afghan National Security Forces so that they won't need foreign forces, and at the same time we are significantly increasing civilian resources for Afghanistan.

5. (U) Jaguaribe saw as a hopeful sign the interest of the international community in Afghanistan, noting that India had a "huge stake" in the outcome there and that Iran "could be helpful or could be harmful." He thought it important that the USG consult internationally as widely as possible before taking actions with respect to Afghanistan. He said that Brazil had been talking

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recently with Afghanistan's ambassador to the United States who was in Brasilia and spoke of opening an embassy, something the GOB would welcome.

6. (U) Finally, Jaguaribe said that the GOB had some limited Development, mostly agricultural assistance for Afghanistan. He said that the GOB is interested in participating in the country's "civil reconstruction process." Any Brazilian military involvement in the area is highly unlikely, he added. (Note: Jaguaribe did not comment on Pakistan.)

KUBISKE

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