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Cablegate: Media Reaction: Taiwan's Local Elections, U.S. President

VZCZCXYZ0005
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #1439/01 3410929
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 070929Z DEC 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2881
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9564
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0954

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001439

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/P, EAP/PD - THOMAS HAMM
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN'S LOCAL ELECTIONS, U.S. PRESIDENT
OBAMA'S ADDRESS ON AFGHANISTAN

1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language and English-language
dailies from December 5 through 7 gave significant straightforward
news reporting and editorial coverage to the city mayors' and county
magistrates' elections around the island on December 5. In the
elections, the KMT won 12 of 17 mayor and magistrate positions, the
DPP won 4, and one went to a former KMT and now independent
candidate. Local academics and political commentators, however,
generally believe that the DPP has scored a victory in the
elections, as the KMT's share of the vote fell steeply, from about
60 percent in last year's presidential election to 47.88 percent,
while the DPP's share grew from 41.55 percent to 45.32. The
pro-independence "Liberty Times" ran a banner headline on its front
page on Sunday, reading "[Taiwan] People Teaching Ma Ying-jeou a
Lesson." Several opinion surveys also indicated that President Ma
Ying-jeou's approval rating has dropped slightly while that of DPP
Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen has risen significantly.

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2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a column in the
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" discussed the December 5 local
election results and said now it may still be too early to tell what
the impact of the local elections on the 2012 presidential election
will be, but the results have surely created new variables for the
future direction of cross-Strait relations. An op-ed in the
KMT-leaning "China Times" also said Ma Ying-jeou's crisis has just
begun. An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language
"Taipei Times" chimed in by saying that Saturday's election results
were a warning for the Ma administration. An editorial in the
pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" said the results
sent a "ringing message" to the KMT, to Chinese President Hu Jintao,
and to U.S. President Barack Obama. With regard to President
Obama's December 1 address on Afghanistan, an editorial in the
conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" said
Obama's plan to send more troops to Afghanistan was an "exit
strategy" for U.S. forces. End summary.

3. Taiwan's Local Elections

A) "Ma Ying-jeou's Heavy Face"

Columnist Antonio Chiang wrote in his column in the mass-circulation
"Apple Daily" [circulation: 530,000] (12/7):

"... It appears that teaching Ma Ying-jeou a lesson has nearly
become a consensus among all the Taiwan people [this time]. The DPP
just scored a minor victory, yet it was a big setback for the KMT,
because the results reflected the support or opposition of the
[Taiwan] public. The number of elected DPP city and county
councilors and township heads has [reached] a new high, [showing
that] the party has stepped out of the shadow cast by [former
President] Chen Shui-bian's legal cases and is moving ahead
steadily.

"The DPP is on the rise, while the KMT is declining. Now it may
still be too early to discuss the impact [of such a development] on
the 2012 [presidential election], but it has created new variables
for the future direction of cross-Strait [relations]. Ma's momentum
is weakening, and Beijing will surely want to give him a hand, but
if it does, it will certainly be more hindrance than help. Ma's
foundation of power is unstable, and [as a result,] he will have
fewer bargaining chips in talking [with Beijing], and the chances
are that he will make more concessions to China, generating more
obstruction for himself from the opposition party. The unstable
political situation in Taiwan will certainly have repercussions on
Beijing's policy toward Taiwan. How Taiwan welcomes [China's
Association for Relations across the Taiwan Strait Chairman] Chen
Yunlin, who is scheduled to visit Taiwan in mid-December, will be a
test [of that]."

B) "Ma Ying-jeou's Crisis Has Just Begun"

Former DPP Legislator Julian Kuo opined in the KMT-leaning "China
Times" [circulation: 120,000] (12/7):

"Judging from the seats or votes it has garnered [in last Saturday's
local elections], it may be a minor setback for the KMT. But if one
looks into the election [results], [one can say that] it was an
unprecedented downfall for Ma Ying-jeou. ... During the election
campaign, the KMT experienced great difficulties in the cities and
counties that are known for their agricultural development or
traditional industries. Such a development has reflected the local
people's deep concerns that [signing] the Economic Cooperation
Framework Agreement (ECFA) [with China] will result in more people
losing their jobs and have an impact on local industries. ...

"A look at the DPP showed that the votes it has garnered [this time]
has returned it to its basic 45 percent and that it has successfully
got rid of the burdens created by the legal cases of [former
President] Chen Shui-bian. Since it has scored a victory in the
OBAMA'S ADDRESS ON AFGHANISTAN

agricultural cities and counties and those emphasizing traditional
industries, the DPP will surely appeal to a stronger power
island-wide to strike back in the face of [China's Association for
Relations across the Taiwan Strait Chairman] Chen Yunlin's second
visit to Taiwan and the ECFA talks scheduled for the first quarter
in 2010. ... A more severe prospect is that having regained its
confidence, the DPP will pursue and attack [the KMT] by amplifying
its criticism against the Ma administration for the latter's tilting
toward China and only paying attention to the interests of the
Taiwan businesses in China. ..."

C) "Where the Buck Stops"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation:
30,000] editorialized (12/7):

"... On Saturday it was Taiwan's turn to hold local elections.
Although the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) won the top posts in 12
out of 17 cities and counties, losing only Yilan and Hualien
counties among those seats it had held, public opinion sees the
results as a defeat for the KMT and blames President Ma Ying-jeou,
the KMT chairman, for the losses. ... The KMT lost control of two
counties, but only one went to the Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP). More significantly, the KMT's share of the vote fell steeply,
from about 60 percent in last year's presidential election to 47.88
percent, while the DPP's share grew from 41.55 percent to 45.32.
While Ma's aura is fading, the DPP is beginning to recover from the
corruption charges against former president Chen Shui-bian. ...

"Ma was perfectly right in saying voters had been magnanimous -- how
else could one explain their rewarding government inability and
dictatorial policymaking by handing the KMT 12 county commissioner
and mayoral seats? Yet Saturday's results were a warning. If the
government doesn't pay heed to the public's concerns about US beef,
the economic cooperation and framework agreement with China,
recognition of Chinese academic credentials, poor government
performance and anger over vote-buying, then Ma and the KMT will pay
a heavy price in next year's special municipality and legislative
elections."

D) "Taiwan People's Message to Ma, Hu and Obama"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation:
20,000] editorialized (12/7):

"The opposition Democratic Progressive Party's strong performance in
Saturday's 'three-in-one' local elections sent a ringing message to
President Ma Ying-jeou's right- wing Chinese Nationalist Party
(Kuomintang) government, to the rulers of the People's Republic of
China and to United States President Barack Obama. The content of
the message can be quite simply expressed in the famous slogan of
the 'snake flag' of the American Revolution of 1776, namely 'Don't
Tread On Us!' ... Besides fatally puncturing the myth of Ma's
'Teflon'-like charisma, the results constituted a clear vote of 'no
confidence' in his KMT government's craven unilateral tilt toward
the Chinese Communist Party-ruled PRC and the content of the KMT-CCP
'reconciliation.'

"Notably, the crushing defeats suffered by KMT candidates in the
agricultural three DPP-governed southern counties and the sharp jump
in DPP support in highly-industrial Taoyuan County reflected the
deep anxiety among Taiwan farmers, workers and small entrepreneurs
over the blind rush by the Ma administration to sign the so-called
'Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement' with Beijing under the
misguided notion that even deeper integration with the high-risk PRC
market is the panacea for the Taiwan economy. Most voters in these
districts sent Ma a stiff warning by endorsing a stronger DPP to
balance the incompetence of his KMT administration in the wake of
rising unemployment rates and plunging wages, its clumsy and callous
response to natural disasters such as the August 8 floods in the
wake of Typhoon Morakot and its surrender of Taiwan's health
security by agreeing to fully liberalize imports of risky beef
products and 'offals' from the United States in secret talks with
Washington. Ma now faces a grave dilemma over whether to persist in
his unilateral and 'black-box' China-centric cross-strait policy
after his administration has suffered such a major blow to its
legitimacy. ...

"Saturday's elections also sent a warning to PRC State Chairman and
CCP General Secretary Hu Jintao that as well-timed given the
upcoming visit by Association for Relations across the Taiwan Strait
Chairman Chen Yin-lin to Taichung next week for a fourth official
meeting with Taipei's Strait Exchange Foundation Chairman Chiang
Ping-kun, who is also a KMT vice chairman. ... In the face of the
high-profile propaganda campaign for ECFA and claims by Ma that up
to 70 percent of the Taiwan people supported the deal, the KMT's
clear defeat showed Beijing that nearly half of the electorates have
deep doubts over Ma's arbitrary rush to forge this agreement with

the PRC without public support, transparency or democratic
accountability.

"Last but not least, Saturday's election sent a clear message to the
Obama administration that Washington cannot ignore the fundamental
democratic rights of the 23 million Taiwan people or downplay
Taiwan's national interests during its 'engagement' of the
authoritarian PRC regime. This message is most timely in the wake
of last month's dangerous decision by the U.S. to openly express
'respect' for the PRC's insistence on its 'sovereignty and
territorial integrity,' which Beijing immediately spun into
Washington's affirmation of Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan, and
open encouragement of 'economic and political interaction' across
the Taiwan Strait in the Joint Statement signed by Obama and Hu.
Obama's Democratic administration should not turn a blind eye to
this demonstration by the Taiwan people of their resolve to exercise
their democratic rights and determine the shape and direction of
their own society. Hence, we urge President Obama to incorporate
the principle of respect for the assent of the Taiwan people on
Taiwan's future relationship with the PRC in any future statements
or meetings with either Hu's CCP regime or Ma's KMT government."

4. President Obama's Address on Afghanistan

"It Is All about the 'Exit Strategies'"

The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post"
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (12/5):

"Newspapers around the world are recently populated with all sorts
of stories on exit strategies. In America, the U.S. President
Barack Obama announced to deploy 30,000 extra troops to Afghanistan
over the next six months in what is sometimes referred to as 'the
most difficult decision in Obama's presidency.' As the U.S. and
Nato keep on fighting an interesting unpopular and seemingly
un-winnable war alongside Afghan President Hamid Karzai, whose
administration was graded as the second-worst corrupted government
in the world by non-governmental Organization Transparency
International, the mainstream narrative on the Afghan War has
shifted from 'Fighting the Good War' during the 2008 Presidential
Election to the search for an exit strategy for the U.S. forces.

"Obama hopes that by reinforcing the U.S. presence in the region,
the allied forces can make a difference within 18 months and will,
according to a senior official, 'degrade' the Taliban, and thereby
make possible the ultimate goal of pulling all U.S. troops out of
the country within eight years. From the cautious rhetoric by the
Obama administration, it is difficult to remember the same president
had reassured the U.S. soldiers that the Afghan war is 'a war of
necessity,' compared to the second Iraq War as 'war of choice.' ..."


STANTON

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