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Cablegate: Oil Stampede: Iraq,S 2nd Bid Round Results

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RR RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #3196/01 3481206
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 141206Z DEC 09 ZDK ZUI NUMEROUS SVC'S PLS DELETE ALL PREVIOUS
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5709
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RUEHC/OPEC COLLECTIVE
RHEBAAA/USDOE WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 BAGHDAD 003196

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON EINV EAID PREL IZ
SUBJECT: OIL STAMPEDE: IRAQ,S 2ND BID ROUND RESULTS

REF: A. BAGHDAD 1764
B. BAGHDAD 1805

BAGHDAD 00003196 001.2 OF 005


1. (U) Summary: In a landmark event for Iraq and the global
oil industry, Iraq's 2nd oil bid (licensing) round on
December 11-12 showcased the potential of Iraq's oil sector.
Overall, the event proceeded with remarkable organization,
precision, and transparency. The bidding started as a rush
and quickly became a stampede as a broad range of
international oil companies bid unheard of low prices for
seven of the ten oil fields (or oil field groups) being
offered. Based solely on the magnitude of the awarded bids,
Iraq's total oil production could conceivably rise to 12
million barrels per day (bpd) within seven to ten years. In
the less than six months since the first bid round on June
30, Iraq has positioned itself to jump from the 11th largest
oil producer to potentially the world's largest oil producer,
and from the 10th largest oil exporter to potentially the
world's largest oil exporter. This cable reports the results
of the weekend's bid round; septel will analyze the political
and economic implications of these results. End Summary.

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The Event: Impressive Organization
----------------------------------

2. (U) Iraq held its 2nd oil bid (licensing) round on
December 11-12 at the Ministry of Oil (MOO), outside the
International ("Green") Zone. With intense security
precautions and numerous attendees from international oil
companies (IOCs), the press, and the Government of Iraq (GOI)
-- all with large security details -- the event began with
some disorder and confusion, but quickly proceeded with
efficiency and transparency. The event began with speeches
by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Oil Minister Hussain
al-Shahristani, and the first two hours of the event,
including the bidding for the first three fields, were
televised.

Bidding Process: Highly Methodical and Transparent
--------------------------------------------- -----

3. (U) The MOO appeared to take every precaution to
demonstrate that its bidding process was fair and above
reproach. A committee of senior MOO officials, chaired by
Minister Shahristani, presided over the meeting on an
elevated stage at the front of the auditorium. During each
of the bid round's two days, five oil fields (or oil field
groups) were offered sequentially, and the bidding on each
field was completed before the next field was offered for
bid. The two components of each bid were the Remuneration
Fee Bid (RFB) and the Plateau Production Target (PPT). The
RFB is the gross profit per barrel of oil (in dollars) that
the bidder desires. The PPT is the production rate (in
barrels of oil per day) that the bidder commits to achieve
within the timeframe specified and to maintain for a
specified timeframe for each oil field being offered.

4. (U) The bidders, a mix of individual companies and
consortia of companies, had roughly 20 minutes to announce
their intention to bid for the field being offered. A bid
could be submitted only on an official form sealed in an
official envelope, both of which were unique to the field
being offered. On the front of the bid envelope, in addition
to other information, the bidder listed the company or
companies in consortium who were bidding and, for companies
bidding in consortia, the percentage interest of each company
and the operator for the consortium. A registration
committee seated next to the stage then confirmed whether the
Qcommittee seated next to the stage then confirmed whether the
bidding information conformed with the bidding requirements.

5. (U) When the time closed for declaring an intention to
bid, a sealed envelope containing MOO's maximum acceptable
remuneration fee was placed in a glass box on the stage next
to the MOO committee. Each bidder then placed its sealed bid
envelope in the glass box. After all bids were submitted,
the envelopes were removed one at a time, the front of the
envelope was projected on a screen for all attendees to see,
the envelope was then opened, and the enclosed bid form was
projected on the screen. After all bids had been announced
in this fashion, each bid was scored according to a
previously published formula. A summary listing all bids for
the field being offered, along with each bid's score, was
then projected on the screen for all attendees to see.

6. (U) The winning score and bidder was identified on this
summary listing, and the field was immediately awarded to the

BAGHDAD 00003196 002.2 OF 005


highest scoring bidder -- unless the Remuneration Fee Bid
(RFB -- gross profit per barrel) of the winning
company/consortia was higher than MOO's maximum remuneration
fee. If the winning RFB was higher than MOO's maximum
remuneration fee, the sealed envelope with MOO's maximum fee
was removed from the glass box, opened as the audience
watched, and the enclosed form was then projected on the
screen. The winning bidder was given reasonable time to
decide whether to accept MOO's maximum fee.

Bidding Results: Momentum and Surprises
---------------------------------------

7. (U) On the first day of the bid round, the initial oil
fields offered (the super-giant Majnoon field and the giant
Halfaya field) were two of the three largest and most
attractive offerings. They were awarded to surprisingly
aggressive bids, at remuneration fees well below the lowest
($1.90) remuneration fee accepted in the 1st bid round
contracts. The other three field groups offered the first
day were not awarded, though one (Qaiyarah) received a bid by
Sonangol that was not accepted by the MOO. The second (and
last) day began with Sonangol announcing that it would accept
MOO's much lower maximum remuneration fee ($5.00 versus
$12.50) for Qaiyarah. This announcement set the tone for the
day as the action and surprises accelerated. The first two
fields offered (the super-giant West Qurna Phase 2 field and
the undeveloped Gharraf field) received four bids each at
stunningly low prices. In another surprise, even Badra
field, a minor and remote cross-border field with Iran, was
awarded. At the end of the day, four more of the ten oil
fields (or oil field groups) were awarded, bringing the total
for both days to seven fields awarded (a remarkable change
from the 1st bid round on June 30 in which only one of eight
fields was awarded that day). The general mood of MOO
officials present was restrained but jubilant. The general
mood of the international oil companies varied and seemed to
range from pleased to surprised to stunned.

Bidding Results: Broad International Participation
--------------------------------------------- -----

8. (U) Forty-four international oil companies, from
twenty-three countries, were prequalified to bid. Twenty-one
companies from seventeen countries submitted bids. Petronas,
the Malaysian national oil company, submitted the most bids
(five, all as part of bid consortia) and participated in the
most winning bids (four). A number of other companies
participated in three bids submissions. An analysis of the
awarded bids and the percentage interest of each company
shows that the Russian company Lukoil was awarded the most
reserves (11 billion barrels of oil) and bid the most
increase in production (1.5 million bpd), followed closely by
the Anglo-Dutch company Royal Dutch Shell (with 7.6 billion
barrels of reserves and 1 million bpd of production) and
Petronas (with 6.6 billion barrels of reserves and 1 million
bpd of production). Only three of the seven prequalified
U.S. companies attended the bid round, and only one
(Occidental Petroleum) submitted a bid. No U.S. companies
were awarded contracts. (Comment: However, from the 1st bid
round contracts, ExxonMobil and Occidental Petroleum will
participate in developing nearly 3 million bpd of future
Iraqi production -- or nearly a third of the potential total
increase in Iraqi production from both bid rounds. Despite
Qincrease in Iraqi production from both bid rounds. Despite
winning no new fields in this bid round, U.S. firms remain
poised to do well in the Iraqi oil sector. End Comment.)

Bidding Results: Landmark Event for Iraq and Oil Industry
--------------------------------------------- ------------

9. (U) Iraq's current oil production is 2.4 million bpd. If
the production targets in the contracts for the three fields
awarded as a result of the 1st bid round on June 30 are
achieved, Iraq's production would increase by 4.9 million bpd
to 7.3 million bpd. If the winning bidders in the 2nd bid
round achieve their production targets, the seven awarded
fields would increase Iraq's production by an additional 4.7
million bpd and raise Iraq's total production to 12 million
bpd within seven to ten years. In short, in less than six
months from the 1st bid round on June 30, Iraq has positioned
itself to jump from the 11th largest oil producer to
potentially the world's largest oil producer, and from the
10th largest oil exporter to potentially the world's largest
oil exporter (overtaking even Saudi Arabia). (Comment: Iraq
faces tremendous challenges in realizing this potential,
including the construction of export infrastructure, which

BAGHDAD 00003196 003.2 OF 005


will be reported septel. End comment.)

Bidding Results: Resources of Global Oil Industry Available
--------------------------------------------- --------------

10. (U) As a result of the 2nd bid round, Iraq has the
opportunity to partner with more key international oil
companies: one more of the six major oil companies (the
French company Total), two more of the top ten oil companies
as measured by production (Total and Lukoil), two respected
national oil companies (Malaysia's Petronas and Norway's
StatoilHydro), and eight new (to Iraq) international oil
companies from seven countries. In addition, of the 15
winning bidders (either bidding alone or in consortia), six
are parastatal companies that could bring the full diplomatic
and economic resources of their countries to Iraq's oil
sector.

11. (U) Summing up the results of both bid rounds (June 30
and December 11-12), Iraq can now partner with four of the
six major oil companies, six of the top ten (and ten of the
top twenty) oil companies (as measured by production), two
respected national oil companies, and an additional 15
international oil companies from 13 countries. All five of
the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council
will now have companies involved in Iraq's oil sector.

Bidding Results: The Bids and the Winners
-----------------------------------------

12. (U) Some 32 billion barrels (28% of Iraq's total
reserves) were awarded during the 2nd bid round, including
two of Iraq's (and the world's) largest oil fields: part of
West Qurna, which holds in its entirety 21.5 billion barrels
of oil, almost 19% of Iraq's reserves, and is Iraq's largest
field (the first part of West Qurna was awarded as a result
of the 1st bid round); and Majnoon, Iraq's third largest
field with 12.6 billion barrels of oil and 11% of Iraq's
reserves). The awarded fields are in five of Iraq's eighteen
provinces: four are in southern provinces (Basra, Maysan,
Dhi Qar, and Wasit), and one is in a northern province
(Ninawa).

13. (U) The bids and bid winners are follows:


Day 1:

Majnoon Oil Field:

**Winner**
Consortium of
(a) Royal Dutch Shell (Anglo-Dutch company, one of the six
Majors, top 10 company as measured by production) as the
operator with a 60% interest in the consortium
(b) Petronas (Malaysian national oil company, top 20 company
by production) with a 40% interest in the consortium
Remuneration Fee Bid (RFB): $1.39
Plateau Production Target (PPT): 1,800,000 bpd (the current
production is 55,000 bpd and the minimum required PPT was
700,000)

Consortium of
(a) Total (French company, one of the six Majors, top 10
company by production) as the operator with 57% interest
(b) CNPC, i.e., China National Petroleum Corporation or
Petrochina (top 10 company by production, participant in the
Rumaila contract from the 1st bid round) with 43% interest
RFB: $1.75
PPT: 1,400,00 bpd


Halfaya Oil Field:

**Winner**
Consortium of
(a) CNPC (one of the Chinese national oil companies, top 10
company by production, participant in the Rumaila contract
from the 1st bid round) as the operator with 50% interest
(b) Petronas (Malaysian national oil company, top 20 company
by production) with 25% interest
(c) Total (French company, one of the six Majors, top 10
company by production) with 25% interest
RFB: $1.40
PPT: 535,000 bpd (the current production is 3,000 bpd and the
minimum required PPT was 300,000)
Qminimum required PPT was 300,000)

BAGHDAD 00003196 004.2 OF 005

Consortium of
(a) StatoilHydro (Norwegian national oil company, top 20
company by production) as the operator with 50% interest
(b) Lukoil (Russian company, top 10 company by production)
with 50% interest
RFB: $1.53
PPT: 600,000 bpd

Consortium of
(a) ONGC Videsh Limited, i.e., OVL (one of the Indian
national oil companies, top 20 company by production) as the
operator with 50% interest
(b) TPAO (Turkish national oil company) with 30% interest
(c) OIL, i.e., Oil India Limited (one of the Indian national
oil companies) with 20% interest
RFB: $1.76
PPT: 550,000 bpd

Consortium of
(a) Eni (Italian national oil company, top 20 company by
production, participant in the Zubair contract from the 1st
bid round) as the operator with 30% interest
(b) Occidental Petroleum, i.e., Oxy (U.S. company, top 25
company by production, 4th largest U.S. company by
production, participant in the Zubair contract from the 1st
bid round) with 20% interest
(c) Kogas, i.e., Korea Gas Corporation (Korean national oil
company, participant in the Zubair contract from the 1st bid
round) with 20% interest
(d) Sonangol (Angolan national oil company) with 15% interest
(e) CNOOC, i.e., China National Offshore Oil Corporation (one
of the Chinese national oil companies) with 15% interest
RFB: $12.90
PPT: 400,000 bpd


East Baghdad Oil Field:
No bids


Eastern Oil Field Group (Gilabat, Khashim Al-Ahmar, Nau
Doman, Qumar):
No bids


Qaiyarah Oil Field:

**Winner: Awarded on Day 2**
Sonangol (Angolan national oil company) as the operator with
100% interest
RFB: $5.00 (Sonangol's bid was $12.50, but it accepted MOO's
maximum remuneration fee of $5.00)
PPT: 120,000 bpd (the current production is 2,000 bpd and the
minimum required PPT was 120,000)


Day 2:

Phase 2 of the West Qurna Oil Field:

**Winner**
Consortium of
(a) Lukoil (Russian company, top 10 company by production) as
the operator with 85% interest
(b) StatoilHyrdo (Norwegian national oil company, top 20
company by production) with 15% interest
RFB: $1.15
PPT: 1,800,000 bpd (the minimum required PPT was 750,000; no
current production)

Consortium of
(a) Petronas (Malaysian national oil company, top 20 company
by production) as the operator with 60% interest
(b) Pertamina (Indonesian national oil company) with 20%
interest
(c) PetroVietnam, i.e., Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (Vietnamese
national oil company) with 20% interest
RFB: $1.25
PPT: 1,200,000 bpd

Total (French company, one of the six Majors, top 10 company
by production) as the operator with 100% interest
RFB: $1.72
PPT: 1,430,000 bpd


BAGHDAD 00003196 005 OF 005


Consortium of
(a) BP, i.e., British Petroleum (British company with a
significant U.S. presence, one of the six Majors, top 10
company by production, participant in the Rumaila contract
from the 1st bid round) as the operator with 51% interest
(b) CNPC (one of the Chinese national oil companies, top 10
company by production, participant in the Rumaila contract
from the 1st bid round) with 49% interest
RFB: $1.65
PPT: 888,000 bpd


Gharraf Oil Field:

**Winner**
Consortium of
(a) Petronas (Malaysian national oil company, top 20 company
by production) as the operator with 60% interest
(b) JAPEX, i.e., Japan Petroleum Exploration Company with 40%
interest
RFB: $1.49
PPT: 230,000 bpd (the minimum required PPT was 150,000; no
current production)

Consortium of
(a) KazMunayGas (Kazakhstan national oil company) as the
operator with 45% interest
(b) Kogas, i.e., Korea Gas Corporation (one of the Korean
national oil companies, participant in the Zubair contract
from the 1st bid round) with 45% interest
(c) Edison (Italian company) with 10% interest
RFB: $2.55
PPT: 185,000 bpd

Consortium of
(a) TPAO (Turkish national oil company) as the operator with
60% interest
(b) ONGC Videsh Limited, i.e., OVL (one of the Indian
national oil companies, top 20 company by production) with
40% interest
RFB: $2.76
PPT: 200,000 bpd

Pertamina (Indonesian national oil company) as the operator
with 100% interest
RFB: $7.50
PPT: 150,000 bpd


Badra Oil Field:

**Winner**
Consortium of
(a) JSC Gazprom Neft (Russian company, top 20 company by
production) as the operator with 40% interest
(b) Kogas, i.e., Korea Gas Corporation (one of the Korean
national oil companies, participant in the Zubair contract
from the 1st bid round) with 30% interest
(c) Petronas (Malaysian national oil company, top 20 company
by production) with 20% interest
(d) TPAO (Turkish national oil company) with 10% interest
RFB: $5.50 (the consortium's bid was $6.00, but it accepted
MOO's maximum remuneration fee of $5.50)
PPT: 170,000 (the minimum required PPT was 80,000; no current
production)


Middle Furat Oil Field Group (Kifl, West Kifl, Merjan):
No bids


Najmah Oil Field:

**Winner**
Sonangol (Angolan national oil company) as the operator with
100% interest
RFB: $6.00 (Sonangol's bid was $8.50, but it accepted MOO's
maximum remuneration fee of $6.00)
PPT: 110,000 (the minimum required PPT was 110,000; no
current production)
HILL

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