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Cablegate: H1n1 Update: Infection Rate Peaked in November

VZCZCXRO4940
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDF RUEHDH RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHMA RUEHPB
RUEHPOD RUEHSL RUEHTM RUEHTRO
DE RUEHRL #1576 3480538
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 140538Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6043
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHFT/AMCONSUL FRANKFURT 8336
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0908
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 1579

UNCLAS BERLIN 001576

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/CE PETER SCHROEDER
STATE FOR OES/IHB
STATE FOR AID/GH/HIDN
USDA PASS TO APHIS
HHS PASS TO CDC
HHS FOR OGHA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: TBIO KFLU ECON PREL SOCI CASC GM
SUBJECT: H1N1 Update: Infection Rate Peaked in November

REF A: Berlin 1518 and previous


1. (U) SUMMARY: From November 28-December 4, the number of
confirmed H1N1 infections in Germany rose by 11,582 to a total
of 192,348 cases. The number of H1N1 deaths in Germany
increased to ninety-four. Germany is considering selling its
surplus H1N1 vaccine. Our analysis of infection rates suggest
that Germany has passed the crest of the current wave of new
infections. END SUMMARY


Current wave peaked in mid-late November
----------------------------------------

2. (U) The Influenza Working Group of the Robert Koch
Institute (RKI) reported on December 10 a total of 11,582 new
laboratory H1N1 cases in Germany from November 28 to December
4, increasing the total number of H1N1 cases to 192,348.
According to our analysis of RKI data, the rates of both new
infections and deaths appear to have peaked in mid-late Nov.
According to RKI historical data, a seasonal flu wave may come
in mid-January 2010. Bavaria remains the German state with
the highest number of confirmed H1N1 cases, with a total of
39,628 - accounting for 21 percent of all virus infections in
Germany - followed by Nord Rhine-Westphalia (NRW--36,263) and
Baden-Wuerttemberg
(27,972).

3. (U) As of December 10, RKI has confirmed the deaths of
ninety-four patients due to H1N1. In 85 percent of the
deaths, patients were younger than 60 years of age. In the
majority of cases, the patients had underlying health
conditions and were considered to be "risk patients."


Germany may sell surplus H1N1 vaccine
-------------------------------------

4. (SBU) Germany reportedly may sell 2.2 million doses of its
H1N1 vaccine supply to other countries after only 5-6 percent
of the German population has elected to be vaccinated. The
governments of the federal states will decide whether or not
to sell or donate the vaccine because they - not the federal
government, purchased the supply. It is not yet clear when
the final decision will be made. According to contacts at the
Ministry of Health, the federal government will function as an
agent for the states, offering the surplus vaccine to other
countries via their foreign missions in Germany. Germany
received 9.6 million H1N1 vaccine doses in November. A total
of 20 million doses are expected to arrive by the end of
December, with 30 million further doses by the end of March.
The German population remains reluctant to be vaccinated;
however, Health Minister Phillip Roesler (FDP) continues to
caution that the virus has not become less dangerous. He has
emphasized that there could be a second wave of infections in
2010 and has recommended that everyone in Germany get an H1N1
vaccination.


MURPHY

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