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Cablegate: Subject: Helmand: A Reintegration Assessment

VZCZCXRO8818
OO RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #3894/01 3401329
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 061329Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3779
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003894

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SRAP HOLBROOKE, SCA/A, SCA/FO
STATE PASS USAID ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV AF
SUBJECT: SUBJECT: HELMAND: A REINTEGRATION ASSESSMENT

Classified By: Acting IPA Coordinator Hoyt B. Yee, Reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)

1. (S/REL to USA, ISAF, NATO) Summary: Helmand Province,
particularly in parts of the south, is already undergoing de
facto reintegration of some Taliban forces on an informal
basis, with no involvement from coalition forces or GIRoA.
Both Nawa and Garmsir Districts have community councils,
composed of a large percentage of former Taliban. In a
low-key informal manner, the District Governors of each area
have accepted certain mid-level community leaders, thought to
be former Taliban, into the local governance process. The
areas where informal reintegration are taking place have two
things in common: (1) a robust military presence by the
Marines or the British Army, with good relationships with the
community; and (2) the consequential establishment of
sub-national governance under GIRoA leadership. A formal
reintegration process, using the local community to hold
reintegration shuras, will likely be successful in Nawa and
possible Shin Kolay in the British Area of Operations (AO).
A survey of village elders along the corridor between Nawa
and Garmsir also indicates strong support to welcoming those
Taliban willing to reintegrate. Garmsir needs more time, as
kinetic activities still take place within 10 kilometers.
Once Marjah has been cleared, it is anticipated more areas in
Garmsir may be ready for reintegration as that operation,
along with an additional Afghan National Army (ANA) Kandak
(battalion) tentatively scheduled to arrive in Garmsir in
December, may well serve as the added impetus to achieve
formal reintegration in Garmsir. End Summary.

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-----
BACKGROUND TO THE ASSESSMENT
-----

2. (S/REL to USA, ISAF, NATO) In Helmand Province data
suggests that reintegration efforts may be moving forward.
On October 23, 2009, the Human Terrain Team at US Marine
Regional Combat Team 7 conducted site surveys with village
elders along the Route 605 corridor between Nawa and Garmsir.
A sampling consisting of 57 village elders were interviewed
and four questions were asked:
- What does the local population think about reintegration of
former Taliban?
- Who should deliver the message of reintegration: ISAF,
GIRoA, Provincial Governor, District Governor, local village
elders, mullahs?
- What would the community accept as proper measures to
accept Taliban into the community?
- What programs and policies would entice the Taliban to
reintegrate?

3. (S/REL to USA, ISAF, NATO) Eighty percent of the
respondents "expressed a willingness to welcome back former
Taliban members. All but ten respondents cited the village
elder as the key participant for the local shura. Although
the Human Terrain Team's report had different opinions
expressed in response to the last two questions, including
some commentary that Taliban members might be loathe to
appear at a public shura, the majority view favored a
reintegration shura, albeit with lots of caveats.

4. (S/REL to USA, ISAF, NATO) These responses correlated
exactly with the sentiments expressed to Regional
Platform/South and DST officers by the District Governor of
Nawa, the Deputy District Governor of Garmsir, and numerous
local elders and mullahs. These views clearly indicated that
the focus should be on the local village leaders to conduct
reintegration shuras, as they alone have the connections and
credibility with local Taliban members in their villages.

-----------------
THE BRITISH PERSPECTIVE
-----------------------

5. (S/REL to USA, ISAF, NATO) Our discussions with our
British military and civilian colleagues suggest they are
keen to join the reintegration effort but due to the fact
that an Irish national and a British UNAMA employee were
declared persona non grata by President Karzai two years ago
for perceived negotiations with the Taliban, they are averse
to conducting formal reintegration shuras without clear
guidance from the Karzai regime. To some extent this has
already been accomplished by Karzai's inaugural speech, in
which he mentioned his commitment to the reintegration
process. Further, more explicit directives to his Governors
are anticipated in the near future. The District Governors
will need follow on guidance from their Governor on this
issue. With this in mind, the British contingent agreed, at

KABUL 00003894 002 OF 002


a meeting in September with the Marines, to form a
reintegration cell at the Helmand PRT for the purpose of
vetting reintegrating Taliban members. This will be done
with the Provincial head of the National Directorate of
Security (NDS) as well as the other stakeholders. A further
plus favoring British involvement is that their long presence
in Helmand has resulted in relationships with those who have
ties with the Taliban on an informal basis and these can be
exploited when formal reintegration occurs.

----
NAWA
----

6. (S/REL to USA, ISAF, NATO) Deputy Governor Abdul Manaf is
enthusiastic about the notion of holding a reintegration
shura, claiming the people are ready. He attributes this
latter to the Marine presence in his district, which has
allowed people to feel secure. He further reported that
there are four Taliban commanders from his district, all of
whom are in Marjah, and once that area is cleared, security
will be further improved. Two factors mitigate this
enthusiasm, however: the Marine battalion in his district
will be replaced in a few weeks; and there is a need for the
replacement battalion to get its feet on the ground and
establish its own relationships with the locals. Further, as
an indication of the fragile nature of security in Nawa, the
District Governor reported that the majority of the members
of the community council have been sleeping in his compound,
due to the recent assassinations of three other council
members. Reintegration in Nawa will almost certainly result
in an increased security threat against those who reintegrate
as well as those who participate in the shura. The targets
will most likely be the reintegrees, as a lesson to active
Taliban members. The reintegration shura in Nawa may well
benefit by being timed to coincide with the Marjah operation
and would also benefit from a coordinated information
operation (IO) campaign beforehand.

-------
GARMSIR
-------

7. (S/REL to USA, ISAF, NATO) Garmsir presents a somewhat
different political dynamic than Nawa in that it is larger,
closer to kinetic activities just ten kilometers south and
the security situation will require additional time, perhaps
several more months, before there's a local Afghan consensus
concerning the viability of a formal reintegration shura.
Discussions with the Deputy District Governor (the District
Governor was out of town during this assessment), village
elders and community council members made clear that
reintegration is wanted and needed, but security improvements
need to be made first. All pointed out that reintegration
was already taking place on an informal basis, with perhaps a
majority of the community council having former Taliban ties.
The Marine civil affairs team in Garmsir pointed out the
expected arrival of an ANA Kandak in December. This, coupled
with the anticipated Marjah clearing operation, may well
provide the impetus needed for formal reintegration to occur.


8. (S/REL to USA, ISAF, NATO) COMMENT: Helmand Province is
ready to start formal reintegration shuras within the next
two months, one in the British AO and one in Nawa. In
Garmsir, outreaches by village locals are taking place and
these may well result in a successful shura some months from
now. This assessment revealed the critical importance of
both the appearance of security as well as the reality of a
security presence on the ground. On a related note, there
have been continuing requests for Afghan bodyguards from
members of the community councils. Once this is dealt with,
either as a force connected to the ANP or some other GIRoA
entity to alleviate fears of setting up a private militia,
the improved security environment will greatly enhance the
prospects for reintegration. Helmand PRT, through its
personnel in the field, will remain in close contact remain
in close contact with village elders and encourage Afghan-led
reintegration. PRT will also urge Afghan security forces and
NDS to work toward establishment of a more visible and
effective security presence in the area. End Comment.
RICCIARDONE

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