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Cablegate: Rwandan Comprehensive Agriculture Development Program

VZCZCXRO9511
PP RUEHGI RUEHRN
DE RUEHLGB #0835/01 3411455
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 071455Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6490
RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUZEFAA/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0331
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP 0127
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KIGALI 000835

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

DEPT PLEASE PASS TO DEPT OF AGRICULTURE

E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: ECON EAGR ETRD PREL EAID AU RW
SUBJECT: RWANDAN COMPREHENSIVE AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
(CAADP) POST-COMPACT REVIEW

REF A: KIGALI 747, B: KIGALI 781

KIGALI 00000835 001.2 OF 002


1. (U) SUMMARY: On December 6, 2009, the African Union/New
Partnership for Africa's Development (AU/NePAD) held a Comprehensive
Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) post-compact review
of Rwanda's 2009-2012 Agriculture Sector Investment Plan to raise
agricultural productivity and reduce food insecurity. The AU/NePAD
provided an overall endorsement of the Plan's technical soundness
and alignment with CAADP principles, as well as some recommendations
for further analysis and improvement. Other stakeholders, including
regional economic communities, the International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI), Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations (FAO), several Ministers of Agriculture from
throughout the continent, and Rwanda's Agriculture Sector Working
Group, participated in the review and provided support and
recommendations. As the first country to sign a CAADP compact in
2007 and to now submit to a rigorous, African-led technical review
of its post-compact plan, Rwanda has once again established its
leadership in advancing the CAADP process and provided a model for
the continent.

2. (U) On December 6, 2009, the AU/NePAD convened key stakeholders
to undertake a CAADP post-compact review of Rwanda's 2009-2012
Agriculture Sector Investment Plan to raise agricultural
productivity and reduce food insecurity. The review included input
from CAADP Pillar Institutions, the Common Market for East and
Southern Africa (COMESA), IFPRI, FAO, several Ministers of
Agriculture from throughout the continent, and Rwanda's Agriculture
Sector Working Group. The review will inform a post-compact
strategy for Rwanda that includes the mobilization of additional
resources in support of the Plan and sets a precedent for
implementation of CAADP compacts throughout Africa.

3. (U) The review began with a presentation of Rwanda's Investment
Plan by the Ministry of Agriculture. The Plan identifies the
investments necessary to implement Rwanda's Strategic Plan for the
Transformation of Agriculture (PSTA II) and is organized around four
program areas: intensification and development of sustainable
production systems; support to the professionalization of producers;
promotion of commodity chains and agribusiness development; and
institutional development. The Plan is valued at 848 million
dollars, with a revised estimated financing gap of 325 million. The
Government believes a fully funded Investment Plan can deliver eight
to nine percent growth in the agriculture sector, thereby putting
Rwanda on a path to achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG)
of halving poverty and hunger by 2015.

4. (U) The AU/NePAD endorsed the Plan and commended the Government
for its technical soundness. The review found the Plan well aligned
with the goals and objectives of CAADP. The PSTA II, which provides
the strategic direction for the Investment Plan, underwent extensive
stakeholder consultation and peer review, making mutual
accountability a recognized strength of the Plan. The AU/NePAD
recommended that the Government further clarify the role envisioned
for the private sector in the Plan's implementation, including
through possible public-private partnerships and alliances; design
Qthrough possible public-private partnerships and alliances; design
comprehensive programs across ministries that have roles in
contributing to the reduction of food insecurity; and work with
COMESA, the East African Community (EAC), and other regional
economic communities to capture opportunities presented by regional
markets.

5. (U) IFPRI provided an analysis of recent trends in Rwanda's
agricultural sector and sought to assess the impact of the Plan's
proposed investments on long-term growth and poverty reduction
targets. Recent trend agricultural sector growth is higher than
pre-compact levels but remains below the sustained rates necessary
to achieve PSTA/CAADP (about 6 percent) and MDG (about 9 percent)
targets. Unlike the Government's forecast, IFPRI's analysis
suggests that even a fully funded Investment Plan would only bring
about the required long-term growth required to realize the poverty
MDG by 2020, rather than by 2015. IFPRI recommended further
analytical work to evaluate poverty and vulnerability trends, as
well as to establish relationships between agricultural growth,
household-level poverty, and food security. Due to lack of data,
IFPRI was unable to estimate the likely distributional impact of the
Investment Plan and thus its effects on household-level poverty.

6. (U) The CAADP Pillar Institutions expressed general satisfaction
with the Plan and offered recommendations for the Government as it
enters the implementation phase. Recurring themes included greater

KIGALI 00000835 002.2 OF 002


engagement with the private sector, an enhanced focus on regional
markets, attention to capacity development, and the importance of
tracking key indicators to inform decision-making. Consistent with
IFPRI's recommendations, it was also suggested that data on
household welfare, productivity, land quality, and nutrition be
collected to inform development, disaster response, and safety net
programs. The Pillar Institutions recommended that consideration be
given to the specific constraints faced by vulnerable groups,
including women; transfers of productive assets to the very poor;
and focus on value chains that benefit the poor and have
considerable nutritional benefits.

7. (U) The FAO Investment Center was asked to provide an assessment
of the Investment Plan's operational realism. FAO called attention
to the importance of appropriate phasing of investments and the need
to build human and social capacity before implementing certain
aspects of the plan. Questions were raised about Rwanda's
absorption capacity at national, local, and community levels if the
Investment Plan is fully funded. FAO did not receive access to the
models and data that informed the costing of the various programs
identified in the Plan and was therefore unable to undertake a
cost-benefit analysis of the proposed investments. However, FAO is
ready to undertake such an analysis once it receives the necessary
information.

8. (SBU) COMMENT: As the first country to sign a CAADP compact in
2007 and to now submit to a rigorous, African-led technical review
of its post-compact plan, Rwanda has once again established its
leadership in advancing the CAADP process and provided a model for
the continent. Lessons from the Rwanda experience will be shared
widely to inform the further development of a model for CAADP
post-compact review. Finally, while preparation time was short,
this first-ever technical review of a CAADP post-compact investment
plan firmly established the existence of African capacity to lead a
rigorous review whose results can credibly inform decisions to
invest in country-led plans.

SYMINGTON

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