Cablegate: Sudan/Chad: Jem Not Impressed with Rapprochement;

VZCZCXYZ0002
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLO #0088 0151557
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 151557Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4638
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LONDON 000088

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR S/USSES, AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2020
TAGS: PREL PGOV MASS CD SU UK
SUBJECT: SUDAN/CHAD: JEM NOT IMPRESSED WITH RAPPROCHEMENT;
PUNDIT IS

REF: LONDON 67

REF: LONDON 67 Classified By: Political Counselor Robin Quinville, reasons 1.4 (b/d). 1. (C) Echoing comments similar to reftel, London-based Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) leader Gibril Ibrahim told Poloff January 15 that JEM is not feeling any pressure and has not lost any support from the Government of Chad's (GOC) recent rapprochement with the Government of Sudan (GOS). Saying that JEM remains in a "wait-and-see" mode, he said the "gap of mistrust" between the two governments remains too large for these gestures - all of which have been made before - to result in any real impact on Darfur and the Doha process. He assessed that the GOS was doing this in order to hold elections, which are necessary to bolster the regime's legitimacy, to reduce the international community's pressure on Khartoum, and to prevent the African Union from listing any Sudanese entities as terrorist organizations. He said the GOS is not prepared to expel Chadian rebels from Khartoum. With these motives, the GOS cannot be seen to have taken these steps in good faith, and with no good faith partner, the Doha process cannot move forward. Ibrahim underscored that nothing good can come of elections for JEM because it will renew the regime's mandate and legitimacy and no real concessions will have been made. JEM is still defining its policy, Ibrahim said, on how to approach the elections. 2. (SBU) In a separate January 15 conversation, Sudan researcher Alex de Waal commented to Poloff that the governments of Chad and Sudan had made serious concessions and that the rapprochement is the "real deal." He asserted that this change in dynamics is creating a political context where the Doha process could be successful. He offered that the next few months will be critical in building on the forward momentum and pushing to a peace deal. Visit London's Classified Website: XXXXXXXXXXXX ed_Kingdom SUSMAN.

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