Cablegate: De-Ba'athification by the Numbers

DE RUEHGB #0222 0281612
O 281612Z JAN 10



E.O. 12958: N/A

1. (SBU) The total universe of candidates disqualified under
de-Ba'athification stands at 406. According to
Accountability and Justice Commission (AJC) data provided by
IHEC and UNAMI, 63 candidates have now been reinstated
(removed from the list of disqualified). The AJC sent the
most recent list to IHEC on January 26, publishing the 63
names. Six new names were added to the list. The total
number of candidates disqualified on the most recent list is
456. Parties/coalitions have notified IHEC that they have
taken the initiative to remove 50 candidates from their lists
who are on the list of disqualified candidates.

2. (SBU) There has been no definitive breakdown on the
sectarian identities of the list of 500-odd candidates the
AJC disqualified under de-Ba'athification laws. The head of
IHEC, Faraj al-Haydari told poloffs he estimated that some 50
percent of the names were Shia. Like other contacts, he
pointed out that it was hard to make a definitive estimate
because there is no data providing the sect of the candidate
and many of the same names are used by both Sunni and Shia.
ISCI bloc leader Humam al-Hamoudi estimated that 55 percent
of the names were Shia. At the higher end of estimates on
the sectarian breakdown of the list, contacts have estimated
that as many as 65 percent on the list were Shia.

3. (SBU) In terms of party/list affiliation, the numbers are
more precise. According to IHEC data, Iraqiyya List had 72
candidates on the list; Bolani,s Coalition of Iraq,s Unity
had 67 names; Maliki,s State of Law list had 24 names;
ISCI-Badr had 17 names; the Sadrists had 20 names; Kurdish
bloc had 18 names; Tawafuq/IIP had 20 names; and even the
Communist Party had 6 names. It is clear from these numbers
that the two coalitions the hardest hit by the
de-Ba'athification effort were Allawi's Iraqiyya List and
Bolani's Coalition of Iraq's Unity, both led by Shia secular
nationalists with broad appeal and significant Sunni support.

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