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Cablegate: Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement at Five Years

VZCZCXRO3882
RR RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0075/01 0211115
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 211115Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0047
INFO IGAD COLLECTIVE
UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KHARTOUM 000075

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM KPKO MOPS ECON EFIN SU
SUBJECT: SUDAN'S COMPREHENSIVE PEACE AGREEMENT AT FIVE YEARS

REF: A) 09 KHARTOUM 1455; B) 09 KHARTOUM 1476; C) 09 KHARTOUM 1445
D) 09 KHARTOUM 1475; E) 09 KHARTOUM 1447; F) 09 KHARTOUM 1392
G) 09 KHARTOUM 1263; H) 09 KHARTOUM 1195; I) 09 KHARTOUM 1172

1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Five years after the signing of the Comprehensive
Peace Agreement (CPA) by the National Congress Party (NCP) and the
Sudanese People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) the CPA stands at a
critical juncture as Sudan moves into its first election since
1986. The peace agreement has held together thus far but it is far
from fully implemented and many challenges face the signatory
parties. Recently concluded voter registration set the stage for a
potentially credible election, though the parties must resolve a
disagreement regarding the accuracy of the 2008 census figures.
Democratic transformation is at a standstill due, at least in part,
to a lack of NCP political will to implement reforms. The NCP and
SPLM have passed major CPA milestones by passing the Southern Sudan
Referendum Law, Abyei Referendum Law, and Blue Nile and Southern
Kordofan Popular Consultation Law. However, the implementation of
these laws is threatened by a compressed timeframe for
establishment of the various commissions and referendum procedures
in advance of the January 2011 referenda, and the earlier, but as
of yet unscheduled popular consultations process. The security
situation remains tenuous, especially in Abyei, where tensions are
rising due to the current migration season. In many regions of
Southern Sudan continuing violence raises renewed concern over the
security situation of the upcoming elections. The parties have
begun to address a wide variety of post-referendum issues before
the referenda. If the CPA is to succeed in its final year, the
parties need to move quickly to implement remaining provisions. END
SUMMARY

--------------------------------
STAGE SET FOR CREDIBLE ELECTIONS
--------------------------------

2. (SBU) Nationwide elections are scheduled for April 11-13, 2010.
Voter registration concluded on December 7, 2009 with impressive
turnout (Ref A). There have been accusations of fraud and poor
voter education, and donors are concerned by the National Election
Commission's (NEC) refusal to permit an international audit of the
voter rolls (Ref B). Despite these problems, international
observers and election advisors noted that registration went better
than expected. The next phase, candidate nomination, is on
schedule for January 12 to January 22, 2010, and the campaign
period will follow from the beginning of February through polling
in April. The NEC still has many, most importantly logistical,
hurdles to clear before the April polling. The NCP and SPLM have
yet to resolve differences over the disputed census. Both parties
insist that resolving their issues is their top priority. A
special session of the National Assembly will have to be convened
to amend the electoral law in accordance with a final negotiated
solution.

---------------------------------------
DEMOCRATIC TRANSFORMATION LAWS UNLIKELY
---------------------------------------

3. (SBU) As mandated by the CPA, existing laws must be amended to
create an enabling atmosphere for free and fair elections. In
December, by NCP majority, the National Assembly passed the
National Security Law without SPLM support. The law retained the
powers of arrest, detention, search and seizure for the National
Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) despite objection of the
SPLM and opposition parties (Ref C). The Criminal Code, Criminal
Procedures Act, State Public Order Laws and Immunities Law were
also scheduled to be considered; however, the NCP and SPLM are in
disagreement over these laws. It seems unlikely such legislation
will be considered in advance of the election, since the National
Assembly has already adjourned (Ref D). At the SPLM-hosted Juba
Conference in September, opposition parties again demanded the
passage of specific legislation in advance of the election, raising
the specter of possible boycott. The SPLM has stated that it is
committed to participating.

--------------------------------------------- ------
SOUTHERN SUDAN REFERENDUM PLANNING BEHIND SCHEDULE
--------------------------------------------- ------

KHARTOUM 00000075 002 OF 004


4. (SBU) On December 29, the National Assembly approved the
Southern Sudan Referendum Law with NCP and SPLM support(Ref E).
The parties must next nominate commission members to be approved by
a joint session of the National Assembly and Council of States.
According to Ray Kennedy, Chief United Nations Mission in Sudan
(UNMIS) Electoral Affairs Officer, planning for the referendum is
already months behind schedule. Voter registration is scheduled
during the rainy season and donors will be hard pressed to fulfill
referendum commission requests at the last minute without waving
normal staffing, budget and procurement procedures. The
international community has urged the parties to name the
Referendum Commission so that referendum planning can begin.

-----------------------------------------
POST-REFERENDUM DISCUSSIONS TO BEGIN SOON
-----------------------------------------

5. (SBU) The NCP and SPLM are both focusing on a mechanism to
promote discussion (and hopefully resolve) post-referendum issues
(Ref F). The priority issues on the agenda include citizenship and
wealth sharing. During meetings with U.S. Special Envoy, Scott
Gration, both the NCP and SPLM have expressed possible interest in
a U.S. role in the negotiation process. The AEC, Inter
Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and AU High Level
Commission chaired by Thabo Mbeki have also expressed interest in
facilitating discussions. The Southern Sudan Referendum Law
specifies that all post-referendum issues must be agreed before the
end of the CPA interim period, which comes six months after the
referendum, but the NCP fears the SPLM will stall on some of the
issues (ref D).

--------------------------------------------- -
NORTH-SOUTH BORDER DEMARCATION DELAYS CONTINUE
--------------------------------------------- -

6. (SBU) The Ad-Hoc Technical Border Committee report to the
Presidency, scheduled for the end of September, 2009, is now four
months delayed. According to the Deputy Chairman of the
Commission, the Commission has demarcated 80 percent of the border.
The remaining 20 percent, approximately 200-300 kilometers, is
contested and will require resolution by the Presidency. Once the
presidency has resolved the contested areas of the border,
technical teams will deploy to the field to complete demarcation.
According to experts, resolving the disputed areas should be
relatively easy, except in those areas where natural resources are
at stake, especially in petroleum rich Southern Kordofan.

--------------------------
ABYEI TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH
--------------------------

7. (SBU) The National Assembly passed the Abyei Referendum Law on
December 30, (Ref D) an important step forward even though the text
left unresolved the most controversial issue, deciding who is a
resident of Abyei and thus qualified to vote. This issue will
prove a major challenge for the Abyei Referendum Commission, since
the definition of a resident will decide the outcome of the
referendum and determine whether this area belongs with the North
or the South. The Abyei Referendum Commission must also agree to
and arrange administrative, logistical and funding mechanisms for
the referendum, making the quick formation and launch of the
Commission a priority. Abyei border demarcation is still stalled
due to threats by the Misseriya, the presence of militia, and a
Joint Integrated Unit (JIU) confrontation with the SAF (Ref G).
Abyei persists as a likely point of confrontation for the parties
and an area for conflict.

---------------------------------
POPULAR CONSULTATIONS LAW APPROVED
---------------------------------

8. (SBU) The Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan Popular Consultation
Law was passed on December 30. Pursuant to the law, the elected
state legislatures of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile states will
seek to determine whether the CPA meets the aspirations of the
people of their states. It is unclear when the commissions,
mandated in the law, will begin to carry out their work. Education
campaigns need to take place prior to the elections in April so
that voters will understand how the election of members of the
state assembly will relate to the subsequent process of popular
consultation, which will be conducted by these elected legislators.
The quick formation and launch of these two commissions is a

KHARTOUM 00000075 003 OF 004


priority.

--------------------------------------
VIOLENCE IN SOUTHERN SUDAN ESCALATING
--------------------------------------

9. (SBU) The security situation in Southern Sudan remains tenuous.
In the first two weeks of 2010, there have been at least four major
attacks in Southern Sudan, with one in Warrab State resulting in
140 dead and 90 wounded. The causes behind this and many other
clashes remain unclear and the perpetrators unknown. UN experts
report that clashes in Jonglei, Upper Nile and other states between
tribal groups continue. There have been ten Murle attacks on Dinka
and Nuer in the first two weeks of 2010. UN experts claim the
attacks are probing to find weaknesses among neighboring tribes
before larger attacks are launched, as was done in 2009. With
elections approaching, many fear that politically motivated attacks
will increase although the senior UN official in Juba, one of the
most experienced observers on the ground, believes that the purpose
for widespread election violence is something of a red herring
created from outside Sudan.

--------------------------------------------- -----
SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS REMAIN PARTIALLY IMPLEMENTED
--------------------------------------------- ------

10. (SBU) Disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) of
former combatants pursuant to the CPA faces operational funding
shortfalls from the GoNU and GoSS. The UN has temporarily
suspended acceptance of new registrants to the DDR program because
agreed criteria have not been respected and destruction of weapons
cannot be verified. The JIU's are still not integrated and
typically do not train together or live in the same camp. The risk
of violence between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Sudan People's
Liberation Army (SPLA) components of the JIUs continues in
particularly in Malakal. In addition, the JIUs remain
under-equipped, untrained and are often perceived by local people
as little more than thugs with guns rather than the nucleus of a
new Sudanese army as contemplated by the CPA. SAF forces are fully
redeployed north of the January 1, 1956, but while SPLA forces are
largely not redeployed South.

---------------------------------
WEALTH SHARING PROGRESSES SLOWLY
---------------------------------

11. (SBU) During an Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC)
Wealth Sharing Working Group meeting in October, 2009 the NCP and
SPLM agreed to an independent consultation with the National
Petroleum Commission (NPC) on the oil sector. The details of the
international audit are under discussion including in the National
Petroleum Commission which will provide final concurrence. In
addition, the parties agreed that the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) will conduct an analysis of the dual banking system to help
resolve foreign exchange management issues. The IMF team arrived
in Sudan in January, 2010 and has begun its work (Ref H).

----------------
CHALLENGES AHEAD
----------------

12. (SBU) COMMENT: The NCP and SPLM have much more to do to fully
implement the CPA. Below is our list of critical issues that loom
ahead.

-- Rapid establishment of the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission
and Abyei Referendum Commission.

-- Prompt resolution of the use of the 2008 census before the April
2010 elections.

-- Demarcation of contested borders, including those in Abyei
established by the PCA decision.

-- The establishment of Popular Consultation Commissions in Blue
Nile and Southern Kordofan.

-- Consideration of additional legislation for democratic
transformation in advance of April, 2010 elections.

-- Approval of terms of reference for the oil sector audit and
identification of a neutral commercial firm to undertake the audit.

KHARTOUM 00000075 004 OF 004


-- Last but not least, organizing post-referendum discussions. This
lies outside the CPA but is crucial if the CPA is to successfully
run its course.
WHITEHEAD

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