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Cablegate: Chad-Sudan Rapprochement Gains Momentum As Goc

VZCZCXRO2461
OO RUEHBC RUEHBZ RUEHDH RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHKUK RUEHMA RUEHMR
RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNJ #0011/01 0071304
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 071304Z JAN 10
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7563
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 000011

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/C
STATE FOR S/USSES
OSD FOR DASD HUDDLESTON
NSC FOR GAVIN
LONDON FOR POL - LORD
PARIS FOR POL - BAIN AND KANEDA
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR AU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PREF SU CD
SUBJECT: CHAD-SUDAN RAPPROCHEMENT GAINS MOMENTUM AS GOC
GIVES JEM ULTIMATUM: "DOHA IS YOUR LAST CHANCE."

REF: A. NDJAMENA 004
B. NDJAMENA 003
C. 09 NDJAMENA 621

----------
SUMMARY AND
COMMENT
-----------

1. (SBU) Chad-Sudan rapprochement has gained significant
momentum, with the GoC last week having given the JEM an
ultimatum on the need to travel to Doha and negotiate in good
faith, or "go it alone from here on." A Sudanese technical
team arrived in N'Djamena January 7, and a heavy-weight
Sudanese political/military delegation headed by Dr. Ghazi is
scheduled to come here January 8. The Sudanese have two
goals: first, they want to advance Chad-Sudan rapprochement
politically, in parallel to the work of the technical team on
implementation of the planned border monitoring program.
Second, the Sudanese delegation plans to speak with the JEM's
Khalil Ibrahim here in N'Djamena, in a meeting arranged by
the GoC.

2. (SBU) This getting really interesting. The new momentum
in Chad-Sudan rapprochement lies in the convergence of the
paths of the two governments. The GOC and GOS are advancing
their national goals and relations at the expense of JEM and
Chad rebels in Sudan. The Chadians will be looking for Sudan
to give an "ultimatum" to Chad rebels there, just as the GoC
did to the JEM. The idea of the GOC and the GOS talking to
JEM with the same message is indeed intriguing. END SUMMARY
AND COMMENT.

3. (SBU) In a conversation with Ambassador Nigro and DCM
January 7, Chadian Ambassador to the U.S. Adoum Bechir
reported that Sudan's technical delegation charged with
working out a bilateral border-monitoring plan had arrived
earlier in the day, and that a political/military delegation
headed by Ghazi Sallahuddin and including Intel Chief Atta,
FMA SYG Muttriq, and Doha Negotiator Amin Hassan Ouman, would
arrive January 8. In addition to giving political blessing
to the work of the technical team, the political delegation
would meet in N'Djamena with JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim in the
aim of trying to make progress on a JEM settlement with the
GoS.

4. (SBU) The GoC had set the table for the Sudan-JEM
meeting, said Bechir, by sending its own high-level
delegation to Am Djarras last week to give Khalil an
ultimatum from President Deby: "Either go to Doha and
negotiate seriously in a logic of peace, or go it alone."
The Chadian delegation to Am Djarras, consisting of FORMIN
Faki, Interior Minister Bachir, Infrastructure Minister
Younousmi, Ambassador to Libya (and brother of the President)
Daoussa Deby, Intel Chief Chaibo, National Assembly First
Vice President and Ambassador to the U.S. Bechir, had made
clear that the GoC at the highest level had decided to make
peace with Sudan. The GoC viewed Doha as the JEM's "last
chance to move forward peacefully." The delegation had
specified that "if the JEM chose to take up arms after Doha
and go to war, it would go alone." Furthermore, it would no
longer be welcome in Chad. "Our support for the JEM, except
as a peaceful political movement in Sudan, has ended; this is
the President's decision," the delegation told Khalil. "We
want to turn the page definitively on our relations with
Sudan and the JEM."

5. (SBU) In response to the GoC demarche, Khalil had
repeated familiar themes, said Ambassador Bechir: "We'll go
to Doha, but we are not hopeful. Sudan has stacked the cards
against us." "Sudan wants us to be a tooth on the wheel"
along with other ephemeral, GoS-fabricated civil-society
players. "We aren't a tooth, we are the wheel."

6. (SBU) The JEM did accept the GoC delegation's invitation
to arrange a direct, high-level GoS-JEM meeting in N'Djamena,
which would take place with Ghazi representing the GoS

NDJAMENA 00000011 002 OF 002


January 8. The Sudanese were already aware of what had
happened at the Am Djarras talks. In fact, the GoC had told
Atta, "You know you can trust us. You have already heard
through your own sources what happened at Am Djarras. Now
you must give your Chadian rebel clients a similar message."

7. (SBU) Bechir noted that the GoC still had doubts about
GoS sincerity overall, and especially about its intention to
break definitively with Chadian rebels. He added that the
discovery in Tisse, southeastern Chad, of new rebel land
mines was proof that anti-Chadian rebels were still capable
of causing problems for the GoC.

-------
COMMENT
-------

8. (SBU) This getting really interesting. The new momentum
in Chad-Sudan rapprochement lies in the convergence of the
paths of the two governments. The GOC and GOS are advancing
their national goals and relations at the expense of JEM and
Chad rebels in Sudan. The Chadians will be looking for Sudan
to give an "ultimatum" to Chad rebels there, just as the GoC
did to the JEM. The idea of the GOC and the GOS talking to
JEM with the same message is indeed intriguing.

9. (U) Minimize considered.
NIGRO

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