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Cablegate: World Food Program Somalia Refugee Outflows Pipeline Update

VZCZCXRO3703
PP RUEHRN
DE RUEHRN #0001/01 0081740
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 081740Z JAN 10
FM USMISSION UN ROME
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1244
INFO RUEHC/USAID WASHDC
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 0029
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI PRIORITY 0015
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 0048
RUEHYN/AMEMBASSY SANAA PRIORITY 0014
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY 0284
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 0343
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0444
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME 1321

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 UN ROME 000001

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR IO/HS, PRM/MCE AND EB/IFD/ODA
USAID FOR DCHA, FFP, OFDA, AND AFRICA BUREAU
NAIROBI FOR GEORGIANNA PLATT, SUREKA KHANDAGLE AND NICK COX

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: WFP SO EAID EFIN UNHCR PREF
SUBJECT: WORLD FOOD PROGRAM SOMALIA REFUGEE OUTFLOWS PIPELINE UPDATE

REF: STATE 132604

1. (U) This message is sensitive but unclassified. Please
handle accordingly.

2. (SBU) In response to reftel, between January 7 and 8,
USUN-Rome contacted World Food Program (WFP) Deputy Executive
Director (DED) Amir Abdulla to obtain the latest pipeline
information on WFP Protracted Relief and Recovery Operations
(PRROs) in Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti. Following is a summary:

A) Kenya PRRO 102583: With the exception of a slight cereals
shortfall, WFP reports full pipelines for cereals pulses,
corn-soy blend (CSB) and oils through July. Current shortfall
includes an outstanding advance of 11,000 MT, $10.55 million in
the six-month period February-July 2010, which WFP expects to be
able to cover.

The relocation of 13,000 refugees from Dadaab to Kakuma was
completed in October 2009. Since the beginning of January 2010,
Dadaab has registered more than 59,000 new arrivals, of which
53,000 are from Somalia. New arrival trends from Somalia have
decreased probably due to heavy rains, rendering the roads
impassable. With the suspension of WFP programs in areas of
Somalia controlled by the Al-Shabaab, a new wave of refugees is
expected possibly over the next 3-4 weeks. There is urgent need
for additional storage and food stocks at the Dadaab refugee
camps.

WFP stressed that, if there is an increased Somali refugee
influx into Kenya, a projected worst case scenario of 141,000
additional Somali refugees will result in a total shortfall of
25,531 MT, $23.84 million in the six-month period February-July
2010.

B) Ethiopia PRRO 101273: Cereals, pulses and blended foods will
be required in the coming months. The current shortfall is
estimated at 715 MT, $537,438 in the six-month period
February-July 2010.

WFP stressed that, if there is an increased Somali refugee
influx into Ethiopia, it would not begin for possibly another
3-4 weeks and an estimated worst case scenario of 50,000
additional Somali refugees would result in a total shortfall of
7,196 MT, $6.05 million in the six-month period February-July
2010.

C) Djibouti PRRO 105441: WFP reports a healthy pipeline for
cereals, pulses and oil through July 2010, with a total
shortfall of 449 MT, $457,086. However, funds are urgently
required for the purchase of CSB and salt. Serious pipeline
breaks will start in the second half of the year.

WFP stressed that, if there is an increased Somali refugee
influx into Djibouti, it would not begin for possibly another
3-4 weeks and an estimated worst case scenario of 30,000
additional Somali refugees would result in a total shortfall of
3,419 MT, $2.98 million in the six-month period February-July
2010.

3. (SBU) DED Abdulla also transmitted a detailed Excel
spreadsheet summarizing the pipeline info for all three
countries for CY 2010. Spreadsheet has been forward to
State/PRM (Janet Deutsch), USAID/FFP (Rachel Grant and Pete
Mohan) and State/AF (Matt Walsh).

4. (SBU) On separate issues, DED Abdulla also reported that, as
of January 8:

-- WFP is currently in the process of clarifying a
misunderstanding by the TFG, which believes WFP will suspend
operations in Mogadishu (TFG authorities erroneously
misinterpreted the "operational pause" which went into effect on
January 1 to also include the capital);

-- A major Somali national newspaper has run a drawing depicting
a hand draped in the WFP flag attempting to deliver a plate of
food to a malnourished Somali, but the hand is being blocked by
a militant in Al-Shabaab garb wielding a Kalishnikov and
questioning, "Why do you care about these people?" (He believes

UN ROME 00000001 002 OF 002


this provocative image may rile up locals against the actions of
Al-Shabaab.); and

-- WFP and UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) will
jointly lead a regional contingency planning exercise during the
week of January 25 (TBC).
GLOVER

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