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Cablegate: Somalia: Terrorism Threat of Unstable Somalia;

VZCZCXRO2415
OO RUEHIK
DE RUCNDT #0026/01 0200036
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 200036Z JAN 10
FM USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
TO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA IMMEDIATE 2211
RUEHAE/AMEMBASSY ASMARA IMMEDIATE 1911
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI IMMEDIATE 0012
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM IMMEDIATE 1773
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI IMMEDIATE 0002
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8019

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 000026

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC PTER MARR PHUM SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: TERRORISM THREAT OF UNSTABLE SOMALIA;
UNSC SUPPORTS EXTENDING AMISON'S MANDATE

USUN NEW Y 00000026 001.2 OF 002


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. On January 14, UN Special Representative
for Somalia Ould-Abdallah briefed the Security Council on the
situation in Somalia. He focused on the terrorism threat
posed by Somalia and urged the international community to
boost financial support to both AMISOM and the TFG's security
sector. Commissioner of the African Union Commission Lamamra
and League of Arab States Permanent Observer Mahmassani
agreed with Ould-Abdallah's security assessment and called
for strengthening AMISOM and the TFG to avoid regional
destabilization. Permanent Representative of Somalia Duale
confirmed that the TFG will continue to reach out to all
elements and focus on reconciliation in 2010. Although
Council members agreed that greater security is key to
stabilizing Somalia, there was little agreement with
Ould-Abdullah's call for a new comprehensive strategy. All
delegations agreed to renew AMISOM's mandate, to continue
support for the TFG and the Djibouti Peace Process, and to
encourage the timely disbursement of financial pledges. END
SUMMARY.

SRSG OULD-ABDULLAH BRIEFS ON SOMALIA
-----------------------------------

2. (SBU) On January 14, Special Representative for the
Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Political
Office for Somalia (UNPOS) Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah briefed the
Security Council on the situation in Somalia. Ould-Abdallah
stated that the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has
made progress despite ongoing attacks by armed opposition
groups. The TFG's progress included consolidating its
authority in Mogadishu, establishing a federal budget, and
training security forces. In spite of this progress,
Ould-Abdallah noted two challenges to stabilizing Somalia.
The first is an "absence of concrete commitment to Somalia"
by the international community, which has encouraged
extremism. The second is translating international political
support into concrete financial support. Ould-Abdallah
underscored the terrorism threat posed by Somalia's
continuing lack of security, and stressed that the
international community must address the crisis' root causes,
lamenting the eight billion dollars spent over the past 15
years that addressed only the symptoms of instability.
Ould-Abdallah asked for AMISOM troop salaries to be increased
to the level of UN peacekeepers, as well as for the timely
disbursement of salaries and provision of equipment. He also
urged the Council to act against spoilers and called for an
integrated UN Mission in Somalia.

3. (SBU) Commissioner for Peace and Security of the African
Union Commission Ramtane Lamamra stated that extremists had
stepped up their actions in Somalia in hopes of unraveling
the Djibouti Peace Process. He said that the links between
al-Shabaab and international jihadism have been confirmed,
along with the relationship between al-Qaida and the influx
of foreign fighters into Somalia. Compared with the entire
previous period of its existence, twice as many AMISOM forces
were killed in 2009. Lamamra called for an extension of
AMISOM's mandate for 12 months and asked the Council to
impose a no-fly zone and naval blockade to help thwart the
insurgency. Permanent Observer for the
League of Arab States Yahya Mahmassani described the
situation in Somalia as the main challenge to peace and
security in the Horn of Africa. He stated that a political
solution must be based on national consensus achieved through
the Djibouti Peace Process and that all political parties
must be included in the dialogue. He urged the international
community to meet the humanitarian challenge through close
cooperation with aid agencies, and called for regional groups
and states to make financial contributions to Somalia and to
support AMISOM. He also asked the Council to "take necessary
measures" to tackle the root causes of piracy in Somalia.

4. (SBU) Permanent Representative of Somalia Elmi Ahmed
Duale stressed the importance of enhancing the rule of law
capacity, especially the judiciary. He also emphasized that
Somali national security forces, including the army, police
and coast guard must be rebuilt. To do so, he asked for the
urgent release of financial pledges made in Brussels, stating
that the delay in resource provision is causing major
difficulties for the TFG. Duale highlighted the success of
his government's new transparent financial mechanism, created
by a private international firm, and noted the 1,000 coast
guard forces trained by the TFG who lack equipment to do

USUN NEW Y 00000026 002.2 OF 002


their job. He explained that the difficult security
situation called for a much larger UN footprint and asked for
AMISOM to become part of a UN Peacekeeping operation. He
stated that the TFG will continue to reach out to all
elements and plans to focus on reconciliation, recovery and
reconstruction and regional cooperation this year.


COUNCIL FOCUSES ON SECURITY AND FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTIONS
--------------------------------------------- ---------

5. (SBU) In closed consultations, Ould-Abdullah urged Council
members to move in a new strategic direction vis--vis
Somalia, stating that "dialogue has become a business." He
called for a review of the international community's approach
and said that the current level of assistance is not
sustainable. Somalia needs to move from a "failed state to a
fragile state." In response, the United Kingdom rejected
Ould-Abdullah's call for a new direction, stating that the
international community has, "the right set of priorities;
the key is implementation of strategy." France agreed,
stating, "there is no realistic
alternative strategy for what we are doing." All Council
members focused on the importance of supporting the Djibouti
Peace Process, boosting the TFG's security sector capacity
and disbursing financial pledges made in Brussels. Many
noted the importance of greater donor coordination and the
TFG's need to expand the area under its control.

6. (SBU) All delegations called for AMISOM to be
strengthened to 8,000 troops and Uganda asked for the timely
disbursement of equipment, salary payments, as well as
increased troop rotations. Ambassador DiCarlo emphasized
improving Somalia's security to create political stability,
and called for the deployment of AMISOM to its
fully-authorized strength. She noted the United States'
disbursement of more than $171 million in bilateral
assistance for logistical and equipment support, as well as
pre-deployment training for AMISOM's troops. Many
delegations asked for a 12-month renewal of AMISOM's mandate,
including Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom.
Several delegations linked the situation in Somali to future
instability in the region and lamented the role of outside
spoilers. Reconstruction and development was also raised,
with Turkey offering to host a conference on this topic.

7. (SBU) Ambassador DiCarlo noted the dire humanitarian
situation, and emphasized that the United States will
continue to work with the international community to meet
Somalia's needs. The United Kingdom stated that the Council
can play a role by encouraging resumption of the World Food
Program's activities in southern Somalia and by encouraging
countries to boost financial contributions. Several
delegations expressed concern over the recruitment of child
soldiers; Lebanon expressed concern about the risks faced by
journalists in Somalia. Many pointed to piracy as another
symptom of Somalia's instability, including Nigeria, which
noted the phenomenon of "copy-cat" piracy off the coast of
West Africa. The United Kingdom said that the international
community is "too complacent" on piracy, and that it needs to
address the long-term causes, rather than only the symptoms.
Lebanon echoed these sentiments, recommending that the
international community focus on piracy's economic and social
causes.

UN's Presence in Somalia
-------------------------

8. (SBU) Several delegations, including the United Kingdom,
stated that the time is not right for a UN Peacekeeping
operation in Somalia. However, a number of delegations,
including Gabon, Lebanon, Turkey, the United Kingdom and
Nigeria, expressed support for the incremental approach to
establishing a UN footprint in Somalia as mandated by UNSCR
1872. Japan agreed that the UN should move to the second
phase of the approach, a light UN footprint in Somalia.
Brazil said that it supports the "prompt construction of UN
facilities in Somalia." Ambassador DiCarlo also welcomed the
UN's work to establish a presence, including UNPOS's recent
security sector assessment, co-led by the United States and
the European Union.
RICE

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