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Cablegate: Israeli Deputy Fm Flags Top Concern Qme And

VZCZCXRO7650
RR RUEHSL
DE RUEHRL #0193/01 0501111
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
R 191111Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6577
INFO RUEHXP/ALL NATO POST COLLECTIVE
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 0005
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO 0003
RUEHDO/AMEMBASSY DOHA 0122
RUEHKU/AMEMBASSY KUWAIT 0128
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 0606
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1802
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0926

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000193

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2035
TAG PARM, PREL, NATO, IS, XF, GM
SUBJECT: ISRAELI DEPUTY FM FLAGS TOP CONCERN QME AND
MIDDLE EAST NUCLEAR FREE ZONE

Classified By: Political M/C George Glass for reasons 1.4 (b/d)

1. (S) Summary. During a February 6 meeting on the margins
of the Munich Security Conference, Israeli Deputy FM Ayalon
told U/S Tauscher that his country's top security concerns
were the Qualitative Military Edge (QME) and proposals for a
Middle East Nuclear Free Zone. Ayalon also said that his
government would provide a response to a USG nonpaper on
elements for dealing with Egypt and Middle East issues at the
upcoming NPT Review Conference. Tauscher emphasized the need
to engage with Egypt, but promised that the U.S. would not
put Israel on the spot in the course of its bilateral
discussions with Cairo. Tauscher also suggested that the
P3 Israel first agree on the scope of an agreement and then,
perhaps, engage directly with Egyptian President Mubarak.
End Summary.

--------------------------------------------
NPT Revcon and Middle East Nuclear Free Zone
--------------------------------------------

2. (S) Tauscher expressed concern about the prospects for a
successful 2010 NPT Review Conference in light of the row
over Iran's nuclear program and Egypt's controversial
proposals on Middle East nuclear issues. In particular,
Tauscher noted that Egypt had repeatedly disrupted prior
RevCons over this issue without being made to pay a price.
This year, she said, the USG wanted to be proactive and has
begun engaging Egypt early in order to find a way forward.
However, Tauscher emphasized that the U.S. would consult with
Tel Aviv and not put Israel in a difficult position during
the course of bilateral talks with Cairo. The goal, she
said, would be to convince Egypt to abandon its normal
approach to these issues and engage in a more productive
dialogue on issues of concern in the Middle East and support
U.S. objectives.

3. (S) Ayalon lamented continuing recalcitrance by Egyptian
FM Aboul-Gheit on this issue and asked whether the U.S. had
taken up this discussion directly with President Mubarak.
Tauscher underscored that the U.S. had not yet engaged
actively with Mubarak in order to first come to agreement
with the P3 (U.S., UK, France) and Israel. Drilling down on
tactics, Tauscher stressed that the U.S. did not intend to
offer Egypt a compromise solution all at once but, instead,
would offer different components contained in the elements
papers during the course of negotiations. She also
emphasized the need to reach agreement among the P3 Israel by
the end of March -- at the latest. April, Tauscher stressed,
would be too late to successfully engage with Egypt before
the NPT Revcon in May. As a result, the USG hoped for
Israeli comments to its proposed negotiating strategy soon.
Ayalon thanked U/S Tauscher for the clarification on the U.S.
approach and promised to provide answers on the U.S. elements
paper. He noted that Tel Aviv had been concerned that the
U.S. would provide the whole paper to Egyptian officials, who
could have pocketed those suggestions as an opening position.

---------------
Missile Defense
---------------

4. (S) Ayalon asked for an update on U.S. missle defense
efforts as well as advances in MD in the Gulf states.
Tauscher noted the recent agreement by Romania to host U.S.
SM-3s as part of the Phased, Adaptive Approach and said the
USG was working on a location for radar. Regarding MD in the
Gulf states, Tauscher noted that UAE was acquiring THAADs,
and that Kuwaiti, Bahraini, and Qatari had interest in
Patriot missiles. Ayalon noted that Israel was working on
its MD technology as well.

--------------------------------------
Russia Post START and Nuclear Treaties
--------------------------------------

5. (S) In response to questions about progress on concluding
a new START agreement, Tauscher said the U.S. and Russia were
about "95 percent" of the way there. Specifically, she
noted, the technical annexes were cumbersome and were taking
longer than expected. Tauscher also conveyed her expectation

BERLIN 00000193 002 OF 002


that post-START would likely be the only defense treaty
ratified by the U.S. in 2010. The CTBT, she said would
likely meet with lukewarm support in Congress this year.
Meanwhile, Pakistan continued to block the start of FMCT
negotiations in the Conference on Disarmament.

6. (U) This cable was cleared with U/S Tauscher.
Delawie

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