Cablegate: Scenesetter for Codel Cardin

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PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHRB #0108/01 0401543
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091543Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY RABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1185
INFO RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID PRIORITY 6100
RUCNMGH/MAGHREB COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS RABAT 000108

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR H AND NEA/MAG
H PLS PASS TO CODEL CARDIN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OREP PREL PGOV PTER ECON MO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL CARDIN

1. (U) Summary: Senator Cardin, we look forward to your
arrival in Morocco, a long-standing U.S. ally and model in
many respects for other Arab, Muslim and African countries.
The U.S. mission's goals in Morocco are promoting economic
growth, enhancing democracy and governance through political
and economic reform, resolving regional conflicts while
maintaining close strategic cooperation by promoting
U.S.-Moroccan partnership in diplomacy, military engagement
and countering terrorism. Morocco itself is undergoing
far-reaching transformations, albeit unevenly, addressing
economic development, political reform, gender equality and
religious tolerance. Morocco has made strides in freedom of
the press and remains a leader in the region, but those who
cross redlines still face jail and/or the closure of their
offices. Other human rights have grown as well, although
Morocco remains very much under the control of a monarchy.
Morocco's top foreign policy priority is winning U.S. and
other countries' support for its position on the Western
Sahara territorial dispute and for North African integration.
A bumper crop in 2009 buttressed growth against the backdrop
of reduced exports, lower investment and declining
remittances. Thus, despite the global economic crisis
Morocco's economy grew by over five percent in 2009. Slums
are coming down and so is unemployment. We believe expanding
Morocco's economic base will do as much to address popular
dissatisfaction with the political system as will
strengthening democratic institutions. End Summary.

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Government and Political Reform
-------------------------------

2. (SBU) Government: Prime Minister Abbas El Fassi's
government, formed after the September 2007 legislative
elections, represents a three-party coalition. On January 4,
King Mohammed VI appointed five new ministers, the second
cabinet reshuffle in six months. The new ministers are
Minister of Interior, Minister of Justice, Minister of
Tourism, Minister in Charge of Relations with the Parliament,
and Deputy Minister to the Prime Minister in Charge of
Modernizing Public Sectors. The changes at Interior and
Justice were significant and will potentially impact major
Moroccan initiatives including regionalization, judicial
reform and Western Sahara policy. The way in which the King
imposed the changes on a weak government does not necessarily
represent a step forward in the democratization process.

3. (SBU) At the same time, internal democracy is growing
within political parties. A political formation founded by
Fouad Ali El Himma, an intimate of the King, has evolved into
a new Party of Authenticity and Modernity (PAM) by grouping
several smaller parties. It now constitutes the largest
political bloc in Parliament, and could lead should the
current coalition falter. In addition to the PAM, the
leading parties are El Fassi's Istiqlal, the
Islamist-referent Party of Justice and Development (PJD), the
pro-Berber Popular Movement (MP), the National Rally of
Independents (RNI) and the Socialist USFP, which has seen its
support decline steadily since 2007.

4. (SBU) Parliamentary Reform: Despite the emergence of the
PAM and the increasingly democratic internal structures of
the parties, we currently see no prospect for a significant
shift in Morocco's foreign and security policies, nor in the
way in which policy is formulated. Neither Parliament nor
the Prime Minister has much say in these issues, which the
King manages directly with the concerned ministries.
Morocco's political parties and the bicameral parliament are
weak and structurally hamstrung from taking legislative
initiatives or strongly articulating dissent. Changing the
Constitution would be necessary in order to change the power
imbalance, but both Parliament and parties will have to
improve their capacity and performance first. Nonetheless,
the parties and Parliament have made some technical
improvements, largely thanks to USG-funded programs from the
National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the State University
of New York (SUNY), which have modestly improved the body's
administrative capacity. These include establishment of a
budget analysis office, a verbatim transcription service, a
consistent forum for training and debate among parliamentary
members and staff, and the introduction of question time.
This innovation has required the Government to answer over
2,800 questions in the last two years, with the PAM posing
over 1,000, and focusing on the work of the Ministries of
Interior, Education, Health, Agriculture, Transport,
Employment, Justice and Communications, in that order.

5. (U) Political Reform: Although the September 2007
parliamentary elections were the most transparent in the
country's history, record low participation (37 percent of
registered voters) reflected the lack of voter confidence in
the institution. Despite this challenge, the State
Department's Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) funded
NDI to run the first ever international election observation
in Morocco. MEPI also supported an ambitious training
program for women running for municipal councils in June
after a quota was established reserving 12 percent of the
seats for women. Voter turnout in the June municipal
elections was approximately 54 percent, and women captured
nearly 13 percent of the seats, exceeding the number reserved
for them. The USG had also sponsored the training of over
3,500 women via an unusual collaborative project between the
National Democratic Institute (NDI) and International
Republican Institute (IRI). The entry into politics of over
3,000 elected women office holders and many thousands more
candidates may have a potentially transformational impact.

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Social Reform
-------------

6. (U) Human and Women's Rights: King Mohammed VI has
embarked on a determined and continuous program of human
rights reforms that include the Arab world's first truth
commission and a revised Family Code (Moudawana), granting
expanded legal rights to women, growing government
transparency, accountability and rule of law. Palace support
has produced more elected women officials than in any other
Arab country. Women now serve as policymakers and religious
leaders, instructing women about their new-found legal
rights, and advocating a more moderate view of Islam.
Although Morocco has become the leader of reform in the
region, the reforms are still not deeply rooted in law,
tradition or the Constitution and could be rolled back.
Continued support and encouragement from partners like the
United States and Europe are essential. Another recent
development has been the expansion of cultural rights and
outlets for Berbers, one of the largest groups in Morocco and
perhaps the largest.

7. (U) Religious Freedom: The Moroccan Constitution
provides for the freedom to practice one's religion, although
Islam is the official state religion. The GOM tolerates
several small religious minorities but prohibits the
distribution of non-Muslim religious materials and bans all
proselytizing. It also occasionally restricts Islamic
organizations whose activities have exceeded the bounds of
"acceptable religious practice" and become political in
nature, lately targeting Shi'a. Morocco has become protective
of and even positive toward the tiny remnant of its once
substantial Jewish minority.

8. (U) Social Reform: Morocco benefits from several MEPI
programs, including country-specific projects and inclusion
in regional efforts. Recent and ongoing programs include the
above- mentioned program for women candidates, breast cancer
awareness, sustaining civil society and youth associations,
developing freedom of expression via the Internet, supporting
development of democratic leaders, supporting technical
assistance to meet environmental obligations under the FTA,
political party training and capacity building, and the
Financial Services Volunteer Corps, efforts to expand access
to banking and to venture capital. Other USG-funded projects
support anti-corruption efforts (with the American Bar
Association) and prison reform to undermine the foundations
of extremism.

9. (SBU) Recent Developments: Over the past several months,
there have been some setbacks on the human rights front. The
Aminatou Haidar case represented an extreme example of the
difficulties those Moroccans who advocate the independence of
Western Sahara or the right to self-determination of the
Sahrawi people face when they seek to express their views
publicly either domestically or internationally. On November
13, the GOM refused to allow Haidar, a prominent Sahrawi
pro-independence activist and human rights defender, to enter
Morocco, confiscated her passport after she began the process
of renouncing her Moroccan citizenship and sent her to the
Canary Islands. Once there, she embarked on a 34-day hunger
strike until the GOM relented and allowed her to return on
December 18. The case attracted significant international
attention and widespread accusations that the GOM had come
dangerously close to forced exile. Likewise, there have been
several recent incidents of limitations on the free press,
including court cases in which journalists and bloggers have
been sentenced to jail terms. Most recently, the GOM shut
down the French language weekly publication "Le Journal,"
ostensibly over non-payment of taxes, in a move widely seen
as the latest effort to rein in the independent media.

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Regional Security Issues
------------------------

10. (U) Algeria: Moroccan foreign policy is dominated by
defending and seeking international recognition of its
sovereignty claims over Western Sahara. The issue remains
the most visible source of tension with long-time rival
Algeria, which has historically supported the POLISARIO
Front's quest for independence by way of an UN-sponsored
referendum. Algeria closed the border between the two
countries, and it remains closed. While the King and other
GOM officials have publicly proposed opening the border and
upgrading bilateral relations between the two countries,
their entreaties have been repeatedly rebuffed. The
Government of Algeria (GOA) has linked progress on the border
to all issues, particularly the Western Sahara. The issue
led Morocco to leave the African Union and has been an
obstacle to regional integration through the Arab Maghreb
Union.

11. (SBU) Western Sahara: In April 2007, Morocco proposed a
new autonomy plan for Western Sahara, and a series of
UN-sponsored negotiations with the POLISARIO have taken place
in Manhasset, New York. The Moroccan proposal would provide
Sahrawis, the indigenous people of Western Sahara, autonomy
in administering local affairs under Moroccan sovereignty.
In April, the UN renewed the mandate of the UN peacekeeping
operation MINURSO until 2010. Following the controversial
lapsing of the contract of the former UN Secretary General's
Personal Envoy, the UN selected retired U.S. Ambassador
Christopher Ross to be the new Personal Envoy, and he made
his first visit to the region in February 2009 and his second
in July. He hosted informal talks near Vienna in August;
while they produced no breakthroughs, the parties agreed to
continue negotiations. The next round of informal talks is
scheduled to take place February 10-11, 2010, in New York.

12. (U) Western Sahara Continued: Western Sahara
experienced gross violations of human rights from 1975 until
the end of King Hassan II's regime, and repression
intensified after the short-lived Sahrawi uprising of 2005.
Since late 2006, Morocco has improved the human rights
situation in the territory. Arbitrary arrests have sharply
diminished and beatings and physical abuse by security forces
have all but disappeared. However, dissenters still face
harassment and sometimes even criminal charges if they
publish or speak too publicly in support of independence or
on a vote for self-determination.

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Economic Development and U.S. Assistance
----------------------------------------

13. (U) The economy is relatively healthy, although marred
by disparities in wealth. Moroccan authorities are
concerned, however, by the impact of the global recession on
important export, tourism and remittance earnings. Growth is
expected to continue, despite the global economic slowdown,
thanks to a record agricultural harvest in 2009. Since
implementation of our Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on January
1, 2006, bilateral commerce has more than doubled. A number
of U.S. firms have increased their investment in Morocco,
seeing new markets develop as a result of the FTA. The
Department of Commerce's Commercial Law Development Program
and the U.S. Trade and Development Agency conduct capacity
building and technical assistance projects to assist Morocco.
Both agencies help the Kingdom to create an open and
transparent trading environment and to fully develop its
trading potential. However, significant export growth to
U.S. and other markets will also depend on Morocco's ability
to capture a larger share of value added in its export
products.

14. (U) Millennium Challenge Account: In 2007, building on
decades of USAID and Peace Corps efforts, the Millennium
Challenge Corporation (MCC) signed a five-year, USD 697.5
million Millennium Challenge Account Compact with Morocco in
order to reduce poverty and increase economic growth.
Currently, through the MCC the USG is advancing programs in
Fruit Tree Productivity to stimulate growth in the
agricultural sector and reduce volatility of agricultural
production. It is also working on an Artisanal Fisheries
Program to modernize the means of catching, storing and
marketing fish, thereby improving the quality of the catch,
maintaining the value chain, and increasing fishermen's
access to both local and export markets. It seeks to
stimulate growth by leveraging the links between the craft
sector, tourism and the Fes Medina's cultural, historic and
architectural resources. The Compact will also increase
financial services for micro-enterprises in Morocco by
addressing key constraints to the development of the broader,
market-based financial sector. Moreover, it will help reduce
high unemployment among young graduates and encourage a more
entrepreneurial culture through two existing Moroccan
government initiatives, Moukalawati (a program for supporting
small businesses) and the National Initiative for Human
Development (INDH), a framework of efforts aimed at creating
opportunities for the poor, vulnerable and socially excluded.
Finally, the program is investing approximately USD 40
million in functional literacy.

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Military and Counterterrorism Cooperation
-----------------------------------------

15. (U) Military Cooperation: The GOM has been formally
invited to participate in the Global Peace Operations
Initiative (GPOI). Under the GPOI program, the U.S. intends
to provide peace operations training and other support to the
Moroccan military so that it can continue to develop and
sustain peace operations capacity. The current plan is to
provide training and facilities refurbishment to a peace
operations training center in Morocco. In order to ensure
long-term sustainability, the GPOI program incorporates
train-the-trainer elements into its training events. The
Mission is working with the Moroccan Ministry of Foreign
Affairs and Cooperation, which will coordinate Morocco's GPOI
request, to finalize the program. In addition, the Embassy
is currently engaged in negotiations with the GOM on a Status
of Forces Agreement (SOFA).

16. (U) Military Cooperation Continued: The Moroccan
military has undertaken a sweeping effort to modernize a
military force that fields predominantly Korean and Vietnam
War-era equipment. While F-16 and T-6 sales form the bulk of
the dollar figure for this modernization, the total Foreign
Military Sales and Foreign Military Financing portfolio
totals some 120 cases in excess of USD 3 billion. Military
modernization further strengthens the Moroccan military by
continuing and expanding exposure to U.S. doctrine, tactics,
techniques, procedures and personnel. The expanded
requirement to train operators and maintenance staff for the
F-16 and T-6 aircraft alone will practically equal the
current annual training allocation for all Moroccan personnel
across all the services and government organizations.
Moreover, the integration of a fourth generation fighter into
the Royal Moroccan Air Force will stimulate a full spectrum
modernization approach from operating and sustaining such
aircraft, maintaining facilities, logistics and aerial
deployment to command and control. This provides an
unparalleled opportunity to shape our engagement with the
Royal Moroccan Air Force. A superb boost this year was the
selection of Morocco to participate in the Chief of Staff of
the Air Force Counterpart Visit program, as well as Morocco's
decision to send an observer to AMC's Airlift Rodeo. These
engagement activities add to a robust exercise program that
includes AFRICAN LION, PHOENIX EXPRESS, SAHARAN WIND, AFRICAN
PARTNERSHIP STATION, AFRICAN ENDEAVOR and FLINTLOCK, in
addition to at least two annual Joint Combined Exercise and
Training activities (JCETs).

17. (SBU) Counterterrorism: The terrorist threat in Morocco
emanates especially from small grassroots radical Islamic
cells, which have shown some capacity to attack. In 2008,
security forces disrupted six terrorist and foreign fighter
cells, prosecuting 100 people. In 2009, the security
services disrupted five terrorist and foreign-fighter cells
totaling 50 people, including one group of 24 who were
detained in September. The biggest threat is that attacks
could deter tourism, an important component of the economy.
The GOM's implementation of a comprehensive counterterrorism
strategy emphasizing vigilant security measures,
counter-radicalization policies, and robust international
cooperation has been largely successful in containing the
threat. Economic disruption, whether from attacks or the
global economic crisis, remains the principal threat to
stability here, but most observers believe Morocco will
manage to contain the threat.

18. (U) Counterterrorism Continued: In early-October, a
multi-agency mission team participated in two days of
wide-ranging, frank discussions with representatives of the
Moroccan Ministry of the Interior. Those discussions
addressed issues including counterterrorism, trafficking in
persons, illegal migration, drug
trafficking/counternarcotics, regional threats and stability,
human rights and assistance/development efforts. Designed as
a strategy session to share information and lay the
groundwork for future engagement, both sides agreed that the
talks were useful and could lead to substantive programmatic
and other collaboration. Under the King who as "Commander of
the Faithful" leads Moroccan Muslims and Jews, Morocco has
standardized religious doctrine, consolidated control over
religious schools and sent specially trained imams to Europe
to preach moderate messages to the Moroccan Diaspora. The
vast majority of Morocco's population rejects Salafist and
Wahhabist approaches to Islam and does not support terrorist
groups.

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Visit Embassy Rabat's Classified Website;
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Moro cco
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