Cablegate: Seoul - Press Bulletin; February 5, 2010

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TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; FEBRUARY 5, 2010

TOP HEADLINES
-------------

Chosun Ilbo
U.S. Proposes Joint Exercises with ROK in Preparation against
Possible Emergency in North Korea

JoongAng Ilbo
U.S. Already Aware of Toyota's Accelerator Defects
Three Years Ago

Dong-a Ilbo
Half of Left-wing Teachers Union Leaders Summoned by Police due to
Their Alleged Involvement
in Democratic Labor Party Activity

Hankook Ilbo, Segye Ilbo
Obama to Get Tough with China Currency

Hankyoreh Shinmun
Grand National Party Split by Conflicts over Sejong City Project

Seoul Shinmun
11 Senior Officials
from Seoul City's Education Organizations Resign

DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS
---------------------

At a February 3 hearing of the House Armed Services Committee, U.S.
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said that in case of an emergency
situation in North Korea, the U.S. may not be able to get the
required Army ground units into the ROK in time due to the U.S.'s
heavy commitment in Iraq and Afghanistan. (Chosun, JoongAng, Dong-a,
Seoul, Segye)

In a related development, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Michael Mullen said that the U.S., however, will be able to send
extra ground troops to the ROK in time after the completion of the
proposed drawdown of U.S. troops in Iraq in 2011. (Chosun, Dong-a,
Seoul, Segye)

According to an ROK diplomatic source, in his February 4 meeting
with Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan, Assistant Secretary of State
for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell expressed his
surprise that his remarks that the U.S. is taking the ROK's concern
about the planned transfer of wartime operational control seriously
were seen as a possible review of the wartime command transfer.
(JoongAng, Hankyoreh) The ROKG source said that Campbell meant to
say merely that he listened carefully to Defense Minister Kim
Tae-young who had expressed concern over the issue earlier.
(JoongAng)

After his February 4 meeting with Unification Minister Hyun In-taek,
Assistant Secretary Campbell said that the ROK and the U.S. have
agreed that they will have to coordinate opinions on a possible
inter-Korean summit and the Six-Party Talks. He said that the U.S.
position is to support the ROK's foreign policy framework. (Dong-a,
Hankook, Hankyoreh)

On February 3, Campbell said that the main goal is resuming the
Six-Party Talks, leading to some speculation that Washington might
not be in favor of an inter-Korean summit prior to the North's
return to the multilateral dialogue. (Hankook, Hankyoreh)

According to a February 4 report by Japan's Asahi Shimbun, the ROK
and North Korea agreed to the timetable of the inter-Korean summit
during their behind-the-scenes contact in Singapore last year but
the summit did not occur due to their disagreements over the agenda
of the summit. (JoongAng, Seoul)

According to an ROKG source, North Korea on February 4 unilaterally

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designated five regions along the eastern and western maritime
borders with the ROK as naval firing zones. (Hankook, Seoul)

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
------------------

U.S. President Barack Obama said on February 3 that he will not
re-list North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism. (Chosun,
Hankyoreh, Segye)

MEDIA ANALYSIS
--------------

-Korea: A/S Campbell visit to region
--------------------------------------
Most ROK media covered Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian
and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell's February 4 meetings with Foreign
Minister Yu Myung-hwan and Unification Minister Hyun In-taek in
Seoul. Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo and Left-leaning Hankyoreh
Shinmun commented that Assistant Secretary Campbell's February 3
remarks that the U.S. is taking the ROK's concern about the planned
transfer of wartime operational control created a stir in the ROK.
The newspapers quoted an ROK official as saying that, in his
February 4 meeting with Foreign Minister Yu, Campbell expressed his
surprise at the media coverage of his words and meant to say merely
that he was fully aware of various opinions on the issue. According
to media reports, after his meeting with Unification Minister Hyun
In-taek, Assistant Secretary Campbell said that the ROK and the U.S.
have agreed that they will have to coordinate opinions on a possible
inter-Korean summit and the Six-Party Talks. Hankyoreh Shinmun
noted that Campbell's February 3 remark that the main goal is
resuming the Six-Party Talks sparked some speculation that the U.S.
might not be in favor of an inter-Korean summit prior to the North's
return to the Six-Party Talks. The newspaper went on to say that
that some observers see this as indicating that the ROK and the U.S.
are trying to gain the upper hand in negotiations on the North
Korean issue.

-North Korea
------------
Most ROK media covered North Korea's announcement that it will
release U.S. religious activist Robert Park, who reportedly entered
the country illegally in an attempt to raise awareness about
Pyongyang's human rights abuses. According to media reports, the
state KCNA news agency said, "The relevant organ of the DPRK (North
Korea) decided to leniently forgive and release him, taking his
admission and sincere repentance of his wrong doings into
consideration."

Most ROK media widely quoted U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates'
as saying at a February 3 hearing of the House Armed Services
Committee that in case of an emergency situation in North Korea, the
U.S. may not be able to get additional U.S. ground forces into the
ROK in time due to the U.S.'s heavy commitment in Iraq and
Afghanistan.

Dong-a Ilbo observed in an editorial: "North Korea is attempting to
set up a development bank to attract foreign investment and improve
relations with the U.S. in order to circumvent international
sanctions against the North. However, unless North Korea gives up
its nuclear ambitions, its economic and social turmoil will worsen
and international sanctions will not be lifted.

... Whether through an inter-Korean summit or the Six-Party Talks,
we should make North Korea realize that it can obtain international
assistance and cooperation from the ROK only by renouncing its
nuclear weapons program and becoming a normal country through
reform.

-China-US: currency dispute.
---------------------------
All ROK media gave prominent attention to President Barack Obama's

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remarks that he will get much tougher with China on trade rules,
including currency rates to ensure that the U.S. is not put at a
huge competitive disadvantage. According to media reports, China
dismissed these as wrongful accusations and pressure that will not
help to solve the trade issue between the two countries.

OPINIONS/EDITORIALS
-------------------

COOPERATION WITH THE U.S.
(Dong-a Ilbo, February 5, 2010, Page 31)

North Korea is in turmoil stemming from its currency revaluation of
Nov. 30 last year. Before the measure, the price of rice was 20
North Korean won per kilogram, but this has gone up to 400 to 600
won. The value of the North's new currency has fallen from 30 won
per U.S. dollar to 500 won. With the number of people dying from
hunger increasing, brawls between police and residents and murder
are taking place.

The dire situation is apparently threatening the stability of the
communist regime, with the North Korean people calling their leader
Kim Jong-il without the honorific title "Dear Leader." Pyongyang
reportedly fired its top finance official Pak Nam-ki over the
economic debacle caused by the currency revaluation. Such a step is
insufficient, however, to allay the anger of the North Korean
people. In this sense, South Korea should raise its guard against
the possibility of a contingency caused by the North stemming from
its crisis and military provocations against the South to distract
North Koreans from their troubled economy. More than anything,
cooperation between Seoul and Washington is needed to immediately
respond militarily and politically to a contingency in Pyongyang.
North Korea has made reconciliatory gestures by receiving corn from
South Korea and proposing bilateral dialogue, yet has (also) raised
tension by shooting artillery shells near the western inter-Korean
maritime border.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Wednesday that if an
emergency erupts on the Korean Peninsula, deployment of U.S. ground
forces to South Korea will be delayed because of Washington's
commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq. U.S. Assistant Secretary of
State Kurt Campbell said the U.S. is taking seriously South Korean
concerns over the transfer of wartime operational command from
Washington to Seoul in 2012. Yet it is unknown how seriously the
U.S. is reviewing this. If a problem happens in the first 60 to 70
days after a war breaks out, this could lead to dire consequences.

The North is apparently trying to overcome its economic crisis by
securing foreign currency through wage hikes for North Korean
workers at the Kaesong industrial complex and the resumption of
South Korean tours to Mount Kumgang and Kaesong. North Korea is
attempting to set up a development bank to attract foreign
investment and improve relations with the U.S. in order to
circumvent international sanctions against the North. However,
unless North Korea gives up its nuclear ambitions, its economic and
social turmoil will worsen and international sanctions will not be
lifted.

In the event of an inter-Korean summit, the Lee Myung-bak
Administration must not repeat the mistake of the previous Kim
Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun governments. The first two summits helped
North Korea avert crisis without giving up its nuclear program.
Whether through an inter-Korean summit or the Six-Party Talks, we
should make North Korea realize that it can obtain international
assistance and cooperation from the ROK only by renouncing its
nuclear weapons program and becoming a normal country through
reform. Close cooperation between South Korea and the U.S. is also
crucial in this process.

(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.)

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WE SHOULD NOT TRADE OPCON TRANSFER ISSUE FOR (OTHER) DEMANDS FROM
THE U.S.
(Segye Ilbo, February 5, Page 34: Excerpts)

It seems desirable to delay the planned transfer of wartime
operational control (OPCON). We need to reconsider transferring
wartime operational control from the U.S. to the ROK as scheduled in
a situation where the North has been ramping up tensions on the
Korean Peninsula by staging nuclear tests and missile launches. If
the U.S. Forces in Korea (USFK) are withdrawn from the ROK and
additional U.S. ground forces could not be deployed in time in case
of an emergency situation, it will pose a grave threat to the
security of the Korean Peninsula.

However, we may have to pay for it if we overly insist on postponing
the timing of the transfer of OPCON. The U.S. Department of Defense
floated the idea of the ROK's participation in the Ballistic Missile
Defense (BMD) system. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said
yesterday that additional U.S. ground troops may not be able to
arrive in the ROK in time in case of an emergency on the Korean
Peninsula. In addition, the U.S. may demand that the ROK purchase
expensive weapons from the country.

The ROKG should comprehensively review the issue of OPCON transfer
from the perspective of security and national interest. We should
not give an impression (to the U.S.) that we are in such a hurry to
delay the timing of the transfer of OPCON because this may put us in
the position (where we have) to accept other demands from the U.S.
The Korean Peninsula should not be a "security market" for the U.S.

THERE SHOULD BE NO GIVE AND TAKE ON OPCON TRANSFER
(Seoul Shinmun, February 5, 2010, Page 31; Excerpts)

USFK's overseas deployment, the ROK's participation in the Ballistic
Missile Defense (BMD), and the transfer of wartime operational
control to the ROK are all important issues that would significantly
change the security landscape of the Korean Peninsula. The fact
that the U.S. administration is publicly mentioning these issues
almost at the same time raises speculation that Washington may have
completed its review of its security strategy toward the Korean
Peninsula looking forward three or four years and is now sounding
out the ROK's intention. To put it more directly, there is a
suspicion that the U.S. may draw on the ROK society's concerns over
the OPCON transfer and USFK's possible overseas deployment to
pressure the ROK to join the BMD. U.S. Under Secretary of Defense
for Policy Michele Flournoy's mention of "appropriate burden-sharing
with allies" also bolsters this suspicion.

No matter what intention the U.S. administration may have, the ROK's
participation in the BMD requires an enormous (outlay of) 8 to 10
trillion won and would likely conflict with discussions on the
dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear programs and the
establishment of a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. In the
sense that the ROK's participation in the BMD could immediately
provoke North Korea and China, it is not expected to bring practical
benefits to ROK security. We should also take a more cautious
approach to USFK's overseas deployment because it will change the
nature of USFK from "deterrence against North Korea" to a "U.S.
military stronghold in Northeast Asia." Participation in the BMD
also runs counter to last year's agreement between the ROKG and the
USG that USFK's overseas deployment is a long-term task which should
be reviewed with the ROKG's consent.

The OPCON transfer should be addressed in a way that minimizes a
security vacuum in the ROK-U.S. combined military strength. In
order to live up to the 60-year-old history of the ROK-U.S.
alliance, we hope that the U.S. administration focuses on dispelling
security concerns in some parts of the ROK society, instead of
trying to use them.

CHANGING SECURITY SITUATION NEEDS URGENT ATTENTION

SEOUL 00000175 005 OF 009

(Chosun Ilbo, February 5, 2010, Page 31)

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates told the House Armed Services
Committee on Wednesday that U.S. ground forces may not be able to
arrive in South Korea in time in case of an emergency in North Korea
because of America's heavy commitment in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"Certainly, initially, we would be especially dependent on the Navy
and the Air Force," he said, but added, "That's not to say they
(Army units) wouldn't get there."

According to an operational plan for such contingencies, the U.S. is
required to dispatch 160 naval vessels, including five air craft
carrier squadrons, 2,500 fighter planes and 690,000 Army and Marine
troops to the Korean Peninsula within 90 days after a North Korean
provocation escalates into a full-fledged war. The aim is to thwart
North Korean aggression in the early stages through overwhelming
power. This strategy has so far served to deter aggression by North
Korea, but the U.S. Defense Secretary publicly admits that it would
be difficult to deploy the required numbers.

Adm. Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff who
also spoke before the House Armed Services Committee, said, "I would
only add that, as you look at the time line that you just described
- end of '11, Army's out of... Iraq - it's the beginning of reset,
really, for the Army in terms of equipment and actually training."
That means it would be difficult to deploy large numbers of ground
forces to the Korean Peninsula for the next two years.

Veteran South Korean soldiers including former defense ministers and
chiefs of staff have pointed out that the dismantlement of the
Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command following the transfer of full
(operational) control of South Korean troops to Seoul in 2012 would
make it difficult for Washington to deploy large numbers of soldiers
to the peninsula in an emergency.

North Korea has 100,000 Special Forces troops, and 70 percent of its
1.17 million strong army has been deployed close to the border with
South Korea. Long-range North Korean artillery is stationed along
the demilitarized zone, and the North has missiles and chemical and
biological weapons capable of hitting targets in South Korea. It
has also conducted two nuclear tests. Even though the South may be
ahead of the North in terms of fighting power and economic strength,
such attributes may prove useless in a short but intense battle
resulting from a sudden and unexpected attack by the North.

The best defense against North Korean aggression is to thwart such a
move from the start, and the second-best option is to gauge the
North's moves and deal with it early on by forming a line of
resistance. Until now, the CFC has played that role, but everything
changes if U.S. ground forces cannot be deployed on time.

Is South Korea prepared to deal with these changes to its security
situation? Is the South Korean public ready to accept them and
willing to live with the heightened anxiety? Are politicians able
to set aside their ideological differences and come up with the best
option for the security of their country? And is the South Korean
government ready to inform the public of the reality and handle the
matter as an issue of utmost priority? It is time for the
government, politicians and the public to take a close look at their
country's security situation and engage in some frank discussions.

(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.)

FEATURES
--------

"I NEVER GAVE UP HOPE AND OPPORTUNITIES CAME... I HOPE NORTH KOREAN
PEOPLE WOULD KNOW THIS."
(Dong-a Ibo, February 5, 2010, Page 27)

Lee Ae-ran, the first North Korea female defector to have received a
Ph.D., is to receive the Award for International Women of Courage

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from the U.S. State Department.

By Yoon Wan-jun

Around 1981, a 17 year-old North Korean girl who very much wanted to
study was unable to enroll in university because her family came
from a "bad class." With the sense of loss she felt, she tried to
take her own life by drinking insecticide.

During her congratulatory remarks at the 1st International Donor
Conference on North Korea held at the Plaza Hotel on February 4,
Kathleen Stephens, U.S. Ambassador to Korea, told this North Korean
girl's story.

"We have breaking news. Dr. Lee Ae-ran will receive the Award for
International Women of Courage next month for helping North Korean
woman defectors. The State Department gives this award every year to
ten outstanding woman leaders around the world. Secretary Hillary
Clinton will personally hand out the award. In East Asia, Dr. Lee
has been selected."

Dr. Lee Ae-ran (46) finally went to college majoring in food
engineering in 1985 when the North Korean authorities opened the
doors of science and engineering colleges to those from "bad
classes." She left North Korea in 1997 with nine members of her
family. At the time, her husband was unable to leave. She
strenuously studied in South Korea and earned a master's degree.
Last year, she was the first North Korean female defector to receive
a Ph.D. from a local university (Department of Nutritional Science
and Food Management at Ewha Womans University). Starting next month,
she will teach in Kyungin Women's College as a professor in the
Department of Food Nutrition and Culinary Art.

For many years, Dr. Lee has been helping with the rehabilitation
programs for North Korean women who were divorced or have autistic
children. Last year, she organized "Hana Women's Group" to provide
leadership training for North Korean female defectors. And now, she
is busy with an effort to establish a social corporation for these
female defectors. She has been supporting college students of
defector families with scholarships. Last year, she created a fund
of 30 million won to provide North Korean adolescents with 100,000
won each month for their private tuition fees. She has been
stressing to the students, "As long as you hope, you can live."

In a telephone conversation with Donga Ilbo on February 4, she said,
"I heard that I will receive the award on March 10. I am surprised
and grateful that the U.S. State Department has taken an interest in
North Korean female defectors."

"I hope that the news that a North Korean female defector is
receiving an award will spread throughout North Korea. I want them
to know that anyone can have this kind of opportunity if one
continues to hope and work hard in a free world. If North Korean
people change, that will be helpful to the opening of North Korea."

Dr. Lee said that she had heard that Ambassador Stephens had
recommended her but did not know that she would actually receive it.
Last year, Dr. Lee met Secretary Clinton during her lecture at Ewha
Womans University. She also met Robert King, Special Envoy on North
Korean Human Rights Issues, who visited Korea last month.

Her doctoral thesis is a research on the changes in North Koreans'
diet patterns around the year 1990. This March, she will begin
teaching at Kyungin Women's College and is now researching ways to
globalize Korean cuisine.

ASSISTANT SECRETARY CAMPBELL: "(THE ROK, THE U.S.) SHOULD COORDINATE
ON INTER-KOREAN SUMMIT AND SIX-PARTY TALKS"
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, February 5, 2010, Page 6)

By Reporter Lee Yong-in

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs

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Kurt Campbell said after a meeting with Unification Minister Hyun
In-taek on February 4, "The ROK and the U.S. agree that an
inter-Korean summit and the Six-Party Talks should be sought
together. The core of agreement is that both nations will surely
have to coordinate with each other in every aspect related to an
inter-Korean summit and the Six-Party framework."

Regarding the remarks by Assistant Secretary Campbell that
emphasized coordination between the ROK and the U.S., some observers
speculate that both nations may engage in a subtle tug of war over
the sequence of an inter-Korean summit and the Six-Party Talks.
Assistant Secretary Campbell also said after meeting with Deputy
Minister Lee Yong-joon on February 3, "We support the ROK's efforts
toward an (inter-Korean) summit," adding, "However, what is clear is
that the necessary next step is North Korea's return to the
Six-Party Talks."

It can be viewed that, through his remarks, Assistant Secretary
Campbell indirectly sent the ROKG a message that, at this stage, the
focus should be placed on the resumption of the Six-Party Talks.
Indeed, the USG is concentrating its diplomatic efforts on the
resumption of the Six-Party Talks while postponing the excavation of
the remains of U.S. troops killed in the Korean War and the North
Korean National Symphony Orchestra's visit to the U.S. until after
the Six-Party Talks restarts.

During a regular briefing on February 4, Foreign Ministry
Spokesperson Kim Young-sun denied any difference between the ROK and
the U.S., saying, "There is no difference in position between both
sides." However, another ROKG official said, "Even if an
inter-Korean summit is held, it would be aimed at making progress on
the North Korean nuclear issue. Therefore, it does not matter which
talks comes first." This can be interpreted in some way as meaning
that (Seoul) will keep open the possibility of an inter-Korean
summit before the resumption of the Six-Party Talks. Some observers
say that a three-day visit to the White House by Kim Tae-hyo, a
presidential aide on foreign affairs and strategies, also aims to
coordinate differences between the ROK and the U.S. over an
inter-Korean summit.

There is also a view that Assistant Secretary Campbell's remarks
reveal that a leadership struggle between the ROK and the U.S. has
finally emerged to the surface. A foreign policy and security
expert said on condition of anonymity, "In Washington, there is a
mood of displeasure with the fact that the ROKG first announced
proposals for North Korea, such as a grand bargain (package deal),
the five-party talks, and the excavation of the remains of ROK
soldiers."

ASSISTANT SECRETARY CAMPBELL: "THE OPCON TRANSFER WILL PROCEED AS
SCHEDULED"
(JoongAng Ilbo, February 5, 2010, Page 6)

By Reporter Kang Chan-ho

Kurt Campbell, visiting U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East
Asian and Pacific Affairs, set out on February 4 to calm controversy
over his February 3 remark that "We have heard the concerns (in the
ROK about the transfer of wartime operational control to the ROK
military), and we take the concerns seriously." Foreign Ministry
Spokesperson Kim Young-sun said that in a meeting with Foreign
Minister Yu Myung-hwan, Assistant Secretary Campbell expressed his
surprise at wide media coverage of his words.

Assistant Secretary Campbell reportedly said something to the effect
that, "I meant to say that I was well aware of some of the concerns
in the ROK over the OPCON transfer set for April in 2012, but I was
surprised that some media outlets reported that my words hinted at
the possibility of a delay in the OPCON transfer."

According to a diplomatic source, Assistant Secretary Campbell's
remark was intended to show that he had listened carefully to
Defense Minister Kim Tae-young, who recently expressed his concern

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over the OPCON transfer.

Prior to his visit to Seoul, Assistant Secretary Campbell reportedly
heard the news that, in last month's seminar hosted by JoongAng
Ilbo, Minister Kim called the OPCON transfer in 2012 the "worst
situation" and that the (ROK) President was also concerned about it.
In other words, with concerns rising in the ROK, a major U.S. ally,
Assistant Secretary Campbell intended to send a message that, as a
friend of the ROK, he kept his ears open and "listened carefully."

However, the source stressed, "Separately from his remarks, the
position of Assistant Secretary Campbell and the U.S. is that the
OPCON transfer will proceed as previously agreed." The Assistant
Secretary also reportedly told ROKG officials at a February 3
dinner, "I am sorry (to put you to the trouble of explaining my
remarks.)" It is reported that Assistant Secretary Campbell, a
former scholar, was personally negative about the early transfer of
wartime operational control but, after assuming his position, he
made it clear that the previous agreement between the ROK and the
U.S. should be honored. An ROKG official also noted, "The ROK and
the U.S. are in the same position that, at present, there is no
situation that changes the timetable for the OPCON transfer."

Assistant Secretary Campbell's remark on February 3 that "We support
an inter-Korean summit, but what is clear is that the essential next
step is North Korea's return to the Six-Party Talks" also caused a
delicate stir. This is because it raised speculation that, while
coordinating with the U.S. over an inter-Korean summit, the ROKG may
be discussing a "way to hold an inter-Korean summit before the
resumption of the Six-Party Talks." Spokesperson Kim Young-sun
emphasized, however, "(The ROKG) believes that (Assistant Secretary
Campbell's remark) is a message to North Korea. It is not
appropriate to directly link a summit to the Six-Party Talks."

U.S. URGES JOINT DRILL FOR EMERGENCY IN N. KOREA
(Chosun Ilbo, February 5, 2010, Front Page)

By Reporter Ahn Yong-hyun

The Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Commander of
the U.S. Forces Korea are proposing to Seoul a joint military
exercise in preparation for the collapse of the North Korean
regime.

The South Korean and U.S. militaries have almost completed an
operational plan for what is delicately called a "sudden change" in
the North, but they have yet to carry out a joint exercise based on
the plan.

The Defense Ministry and Joint Chiefs of Staff are reviewing the
plan cautiously for fear of further angering the North, which is
already on edge amid international sanctions and a currency reform
gone disastrously wrong.

A government source on Thursday said that, since late last year, one
U.S. military leader after another has proposed to the Defense
Ministry and the JCS officially or unofficially that a joint
military exercise be staged in preparation for the "sudden change."

U.S. JCS Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen reportedly made the proposal
to his South Korean counterpart Gen. Lee Sang-eui at the bilateral
Military Committee Meeting in Seoul in October last year. USFK
Commander Gen. Walter Sharp repeated the proposal to senior South
Korean military officers in a recent meeting, according to a
source.

The ministry and the JCS urged caution but agreed there is a need
for such an exercise. Military authorities are considering two
options. The first envisages staging the drill as inconspicuously
as possible as part of one of the existing annual joint exercises.
The other is a drill ostensibly for humanitarian relief in case of a
massive natural disaster in a hypothetical neighboring state.

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The joint contingency plan, dubbed OPLAN 5029, envisages six
scenarios, including civil war caused by a transition of power or a
coup after North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's death; theft and sale
abroad of so-called weapons of mass destruction by an insurgent
army; mass defection; massive natural disaster; and the kidnapping
of South Korean citizens in the North. However, this has never been
officially confirmed.

(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.)

STEPHENS

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