US: Fragile Ratings Of The Micro And Macro Economy

Fragile Ratings Of The Micro And Macro Economy

The monthly tracking on the state of the macro and micro economy makes it even harder to build a short–term economic narrative predicated on national economic progress. That may be possible in years ahead, but difficult in the next four months. A declining number believe the economy is improving, with only 40 percent saying it is "starting to improve" — and a growing number believing it is getting worse. For the great majority of Americans, this is a period of uncertainty. Indeed, over 60 percent believe the country is headed in the wrong direction — stuck at that level since the first month of positive job numbers.

There is some improvement at the level of personal experience — with people reporting they are marginally better off financially, a small gain on jobs and re–entering the labor market, and fewer reporting falling behind on mortgages. This is more pronounced with white non–college and working people, though less clear with the new progressive base of the young, unmarried women and minorities. In any case, these shifts are a few percentage points — and not enough to offset the negative national climate.

Every economic indicator with political implications remains stuck — with Democrats at a disadvantage:

• The president’s approval on the economy is stuck at 45 percent, with a majority disapproving.
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• Only 45 percent believe the president’s economic plan averted a crisis and laid a foundation for growth — compared to 49 percent who say it has made the economy worse. This critical judgment remains unchanged over the past four months — the whole period of job growth.
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• The Republicans have a 4–point advantage on which party you trust on the economy — again essentially unchanged for three months.
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• Voters are split on whether Obama and Democrats are more for Wall Street or Main Street — unchanged in four months.
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• Voters by 48 to 46 percent would opt to protest the Democrats’ direction on the economy, rather than voting Democratic to keep recovery on track. This 2–point deficit is marginally better, but a minor movement.
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We will be releasing other research on the economy — pointing to a very different message direction for progressive organizations and Democratic candidates.

ENDS

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