US presidential election hardest fought in recent memory
US presidential election hardest fought in recent
memory, UC expert
November 4,
2012
The US presidential election battle
between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt
Romney has been one of the most interesting and hard fought
in recent memory, a University of Canterbury expert said
today.
With just days left to the November 7 (NZ
time) election, most national polls show the two candidates
essentially tied, UC political scientist Dr Amy Fletcher
said.
Poll results in virtually all of the states
now crucial to win the Electoral College are within a fine
margin of error, making it extremely difficult to predict
the outcome of this election, she said.
``This
election is no longer being fought state by state, but
county by county. The outcome hinges on voter turnout, and
advisors to both men can be seen on television accusing the
other side’s pollsters of faulty assumptions in their
statistical models.
``Constitutionally, while the
popular vote matters in determining the outcome in each of
the US states, the real number to look for on election night
is the total number of Electoral College votes won by each
candidate.
``Electors are real people, generally
chosen by political party committees within each state. They
meet on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in
December, to formally cast votes for the President of the
United States. Electors are pledged to vote for their
party’s winning candidate, though, technically, a
“faithless elector” could vote for someone else.
``The Electoral College reflects the American
Founders’ commitment to federalism and their aversion to
the potential ‘mob rule” of direct democracy. Each state
has a fixed number of Electoral College votes, determined by
the number of its congressional districts plus its two
senators.
``The magic number on election night is
270. This figure represents half of the Electoral College
total of 538 votes, plus the magical one vote needed to
reach a majority. The first candidate to reach 270 Electoral
College votes wins the White House.
``This is
why certain states, with large Electoral College allotments
and very close polls, have become the battlegrounds of this
election. President Obama can likely count on
approximately 201 Electoral College votes gained in blue
states like California, New York, and Illinois.
``Romney can be confident about winning Texas,
Louisiana and Utah, and can “count on” approximately 191
Electoral College votes across the “red” states. Both
candidates will need to concentrate their energy, money and
time in winning the swing states of Ohio, North Carolina,
Virginia and Florida, among others, in order to achieve the
270 total.’’
It was possible, indeed it
happened in 2000 with the contest between President George
W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore, that in a very close
election a candidate could win the popular vote and lose the
Electoral College. The Electoral College tally would
prevail.
If no candidate achieved a majority in the
Electoral College, the House of Representatives would choose
the President and the Senate would choose the Vice
President. This meant that America could, in extreme
circumstances; end up with a Romney-Biden
administration.
Dr Fletcher said the first
televised debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney
exerted an influence arguably not seen since the
Kennedy-Nixon debates of 1960. Romney’s excellent
performance in this forum—and the President’s
comparatively lackluster one—galvanized support for the
Republican candidate.
Hurricane Sandy is a wild
card in this election. Both candidates suspended campaigning
in the middle of the crisis. President Obama took the lead
in responding to the national emergency and has garnered
words of praise for his astute handling of the federal
disaster response from some prominent Republicans, such as
Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey.
``However, the storm hit hardest many states and
districts that tilt Democratic in this election. Whether
and how all of the polling places function on November 7 (NZ
time) remains to be seen.
``The choice between
Obama and Romney on domestic issues boils down to the
economy, and to whether Americans choose a continuation of
the President’s largely neo-Keynesian approach to solving
the economic crisis or the comparative fiscal austerity of
Romney/Ryan.
``With respect to foreign policy,
there are differences at the margin but much more grounds
for consensus. Key to both candidates is the perception that
the future of the 21st century lies in the Asia-Pacific and
that it is crucial for America to position itself as a
long-term strategic and economic partner nation in this
region,’’ Dr Fletcher
said.
ENDS