OECD Conference - Unchecked Mining, Mineral Consumption For EVs, Weapons Threaten Forests And Indigenous Peoples’ Rights

An Area of Forest the Size of 18 Football Fields Will be Destroyed Every Day for the Next 25 Years to Meet EU Demand for Electric Vehicles Under Current Scenarios, New Study Finds

Report proposes roadmap for supporting transition to electric cars, while minimising harm to forests and Indigenous Peoples’ rights; new policies could reduce deforestation by 82%

PARIS – May 7, 2025 - A new report released today during the OECD Forum on Responsible Mining reveals that the minerals needed to power the EU’s demand for Electric Vehicles (EVs) will place a huge toll on the world’s forests and on communities of Indigenous Peoples, unless policymakers urgently change course.

This is the first time a report models the potential deforestation fuelled by future demand for EVs in the EU (through to 2050). The report finds that a business-as-usual scenario, relying on batteries composed mostly of minerals extracted from the soil of carbon-rich ecosystems, would cause the destruction of 118,000 hectares of forests. This corresponds to 18 football fields of forest vanishing every day for the next twenty-five years.

But the study also shows that this apocalyptic vision of the future can be avoided. The authors identify two main ways to limit the deforestation risk linked to future demand for EVs in the European Union: the adoption of battery technology and new mobility measures that would slash demand for transition minerals. The report also suggests that smarter sourcing strategies can further help mitigate deforestation impacts.

“There is no question of whether we need a sustainable transition in the transport sector” said Perrine Fournier, campaigner at forest and rights group Fern. "But we need to ensure that it doesn’t come at the expense of the world’s forests and the people living in them.”

“Our study suggests that when you consider the repercussions of the green transport transition on forests and rights, there is an opportunity to innovate by rethinking car use and investigating battery technologies that reduce deforestation. This would also increase Europe’s security by reducing its reliance on vulnerable supply chains," Fournier said.

At a crossroad

The study, “Driving change not deforestation: How Europe could mitigate the negative impacts of its transport transition,” was commissioned by Fern and Rainforest Foundation Norway. The study was carried out by researchers from the French Think Tank négaWatt, which has modelled demand for metals and minerals in the transport sector, and the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU Vienna), which translated the scenarios to reveal the resulting deforestation that would occur in the countries most affected by such mining.

The researchers propose a credible alternative pathway for the EU’s EV sector; named the CLEVER scenario, it would decrease projected deforestation by an estimated 82%, from 118,000 to 21,300 hectares.

This scenario relies on a switch to more innovative LFP batteries, which use iron and phosphate, instead of NMC 811 batteries, which are currently most used for the EU’s EVs, and which rely heavily on nickel and cobalt.

The CLEVER scenario is also based on policy measures that would contribute significantly to reducing the transport sectors’ mineral needs, by up to 43% for copper and cobalt compared to the business as usual scenario.

The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report calls for the development of sufficiency policies which are defined as a “set of measures and daily practices that avoid demand for energy, materials, land and water while delivering human well-being for all within planetary boundaries”.

“Our study shows that sufficiency is a key lever for forest conservation: promoting smaller cars, encouraging carpooling, reducing travel demand, and cutting car dependency, particularly through more shared mobility. Sufficiency means using fewer resources by rethinking what we truly need. It offers real opportunities for EU consumers, with lower mobility costs and less reliance on private cars, while also reducing our dependency on strategic metal imports. Moreover, it can strengthen the EU’s industrial strategy by boosting the competitiveness of smaller, European-made vehicles against imported Chinese models,” said to Adrien Toledano, who co-authored the study for négaWatt.

Deforestation stemming from the mining sector

Batteries account for approximately 70% of the deforestation footprint of EVs, while manufacture of vehicle bodies is responsible for the remaining 30%. The study evaluates direct deforestation caused by the expansion of areas for mining iron, bauxite, copper, manganese, nickel and cobalt.

Mines also cause indirect deforestation far beyond the immediate mining site, with the growth of surrounding settlements and the construction of infrastructure to meet the need for energy and transportation. Such indirect deforestation is not addressed in this study, but industrial mining has been shown to cause indirect deforestation in two-thirds of tropical countries, according to a 2022 peer-reviewed paper.

Academics from WU Vienna have found that more responsible sourcing strategies could further reduce the deforestation impact. Concretely, this means prioritising sourcing from countries with a particularly low level of historic deforestation.

"The future deforestation impacts of EVs will also depend on where we source the metals. Forest loss per tonne of metal mined can vary by a factor of 20. Taking mining locations into account is therefore very important to minimise negative impacts on forests," according to Stefan Giljum, heading the research team at WU Vienna.

Mining-induced deforestation is smaller in scale than agriculture, but the damages it causes, such as the pollution of water and soil, is permanent. Opposition to mineral extraction is widespread and very often results in costly delays and cancellations, according to peer reviewed studies. Mining companies often fail to fully evaluate the costs of conflict, according to this peer reviewed paper.

“Unless we act, Indigenous Peoples and local communities will pay a heavy price for our move to EVs. A range of measures can stop this. These include laws to ensure critical minerals’ supply chains are transparent, traceable and accountable; companies at both ends of the supply chain conducting environmental and human rights due diligence on their supply chains; and investors using their power to exert pressure on companies to put an end to any abuses,” said Jasmine Puteri, Senior Advisor Supply Chain Rainforest Foundation Norway.

Main findings from the new study follow below:

Metal demand will peak by 2030 before slightly declining. The EU’s yearly metal demand for EVs is expected to reach 24.5 million tonnes by 2030 before decreasing due to the longer lifespans of EVs.

Different battery technologies require different metals. In all scenarios, metals for the car body such as steel and aluminium make up the largest share of minerals. However, the choice of technology strongly influences the types of battery metals needed. NMC 811 batteries rely heavily on nickel and cobalt, whereas LFP batteries use iron and phosphate.

Sufficiency measures reduce metal demand. The CLEVER scenario, which includes shared mobility, smaller vehicle sizes, and reduced passenger kilometres, leads to significantly lower material demand compared to the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario – a reduction of 82%.

Deforestation footprint of the EU’s growing EV fleet. Under the BAU scenario, EV-related mining expansion could result in 65,200 hectares of deforestation by 2050. If NMC 811 batteries dominate, deforestation could increase by 81% to 117,800 hectares. In contrast, switching to LFP batteries could reduce deforestation by 43% to 37,300 hectares. A CLEVER scenario, which combines sufficiency measures with LFP batteries, would decrease the deforestation footprint by 82% (compared to BAU with NMC 811) to 21,300 hectares.

Battery technology plays a critical role in deforestation patterns. Batteries account for approximately 70% of the deforestation footprint of EVs, while vehicle bodies contribute only 30%. The type of battery used in EVs significantly affects deforestation levels. NMC 811 batteries, which require cobalt, copper, and nickel, are linked to high deforestation rates. In contrast, LFP batteries rely on materials with relatively lower deforestation intensity, such as iron, leading to a much smaller deforestation footprint. Further, different battery technologies rely on different metals and hence different sourcing countries. Indonesia and Brazil were identified as deforestation hotspots throughout the scenarios.

Sourcing strategies can mitigate deforestation impacts. The geographic origin of metals significantly influences deforestation. Three sourcing scenarios were analysed: (1) a ‘Basecase’ Scenario, where metal sourcing follows historical trends, (2) a ‘Forest at Risk’ Scenario with a higher share of metals from countries with high deforestation intensities, increasing deforestation risks by up to 266%, and (3) a ‘Forest and Peoples Protection Scenario’ prioritising sourcing from low-deforestation countries, which could reduce impacts by up to 41%.

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