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Project Hayes And Global Warming


Project Hayes And Global Warming

When the Environment Court reconvenes this month for Meridian’s Project Hayes case, it will hear from leading international climate scientists whose evidence will challenge the credibility of the popular view that man made carbon dioxed causes dangerous global warming.

Aucklander Roch Sullivan, who is calling the scientists to give evidence in support of his appeal, says that Meridian and Government rely heavily on the benefits of mitigating the effects of manmade global warming as a justification for the wind farm. But, as Sullivan says: “if the wind farm does not stack up from an economic point of view, and if the theory of man-made global warming fails to survive serious scientific scrutiny, how can Meridian or the Government responsibly spend billions of tax-payers’ money to build it?”

Meridian and the Government argue that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuelled electricity generation will cause dangerous global warming. This belief drives the Government’s 10 year moratorium on new fossil fuel power stations, and has led generators like Meridian to build wind farms to meet the urgent need for new generation. Legislation before Parliament (the Emissions Trading Scheme) includes the moratorium as well as a tax on carbon dioxide emissions. Sullivan says that these proposals will penalise existing thermal generators, and cause a substantial increase in the cost of power to consumers and provide windfall profits to hydro generators.

The experts to be called by Sullivan will give evidence that the science on man-made global warming is far from settled, and that the latest available evidence shows that the most recent phase of “global warming” ceased at the end of the 20th century. If this cooling continues as expected, then the claimed environmental benefits of the Project Hayes Wind farm, and of wind generation in general, are illusory.

Professor Bob Carter, a Research Professor at James Cook University in Queensland, will give his expert opinion commenting on Meridian’s evidence which supports the IPCC view that man made greenhouse gases cause dangerous global warming. Prof. Carter has previously given evidence as an expert witness in the benchmark UK case which identified nine major errors of fact or reasoning contained in Mr Al Gore’s film “An Inconvenient Truth” (http://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/Admin/2007/2288.html)

Other expert witnesses will include Dr Chris de Freitas a respected and well-known climate scientist from Auckland University, Dr. Kesten Green from Monash University in Melbourne, and power consultant and engineer Bryan Leyland from Auckland.

Dr De Freitas will show that post-European changes in New Zealand climate fall within the bounds of previous natural variation, and that any future warming effect from increases in carbon dioxide will be minimal.

Dr Green will present an analysis of the climate models used by the IPCC, and show that none of them can be regarded as "scientific” or reliable.

Bryan Leyland will provide recent evidence from overseas wind generation projects that the cost of the wind farm will be substantially greater than estimated by Meridian and the cost of power from it is likely to be much higher than from viable and sustainable alternative generation. He will also provide evidence to demonstrate that the wind farm will need substantial backup which, in a dry year, cannot be provided by existing hydro stations.

Sullivan believes Project Hayes could turn out to be a landmark case in relation to “climate change”.

Sullivan does not represent any group or organisation but has chosen at his own expense to oppose Project Hayes on the grounds that it is ‘not in the national interest’.


Witness Bios

Professor Bob Carter

Ph.D., University of Cambridge, Palaeontology, 1968.
B.Sc. (Hons), University of Otago, Geology, 1963.

Professor Carter graduated from Otago University in 1963 with an honours and received a PHD from Cambridge University in 1968. He was a Senior lecturer in Geology at Otago until 1981 and went on to became Head of Earth Sciences at James Cook University. Since 2000 Carter has been Adjunct Research Professor in the Marine Geophysical Laboratory and School of Earth Sciences, James Cook University, and also for a period Adjunct Research Professor in the School of Environmental and Earth Sciences, University of Adelaide.

His research interests are stratigraphy; marine geology, and molluscan palaeontology; the effects of sea-level change on the development of sedimentary rocks; and the history of climate change over the last 65 million years.
He is author or co-author of numerous research publications worldwide in his area of expertise.

He has been a Fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining & Metallurgy (FAusIMM); is a lifetime Honorary Fellow of the Royal Society of New Zealand (Hon. FRSNZ); and has received an Outstanding Research Career award from the Geological Society of New Zealand.

Carter has also acted as a member of the Editorial Board of Geo-Marine Letters; of the New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, and of ODP Leg 181 Publications; and is frequently asked to act as a referee for leading science journals and national research funding agencies. He has been an invited speaker, at, inter alia, the Geological Societies of London, Germany, and New Zealand, and has been Bennison distinguished overseas lecturer for the American Association of Petroleum Geologists.

A former Chairman of the Science & Engineering Panel of the Australian Research Council; of the Australian Marine Science & Technology Advisory Committee; and of the Australian ODP Secretariat; and a former member of the Crown-of-Thorns Advisory Committee and of the Ocean Drilling Program international Planning and Operations Committees, he has also served as a member of the Australian National Committee on Geology, and Vice-President of the Australian Federation of Scientific and Technological Societies.

His research career has been supported by grants from competitive public research agencies, especially the Australian Research Council (ARC), from whom he has received a Special Investigator Award. Professor Carter receives no research funding from special interest organisations such as environmental groups, energy companies or government departments.

His recent research publications, since 2000 and in reverse order, are:
CARTER, R.M. 2007 Stratigraphy into the 21st Century. Stratigraphy 4, 187-193.
CARTER, R.M., DE FREITAS, C.R., GOKLANY, I.M., HOLLAND, D. & LINDZEN, R.S. 2007 Climate change. Climate science and the Stern Review. World Economics 8, 161-182.
HOLLAND, D., CARTER, R.M., DE FREITAS, C.R., GOKLANY, I.M. & LINDZEN, R.S. 2007 Climate change. Response to Simmonds and Steffen. World Economics 8, 143-151.
CARTER, R.M. 2007 The myth of dangerous human-caused climate change. AusIMM New Leaders Conference, Brisbane, May 2-3 2007, Conference Proceedings p. 61-74.
CARTER, R.M. 2007 The role of intermediate-depth currents in continental shelf-slope accretion: Canterbury Drifts, Southwest Pacific Ocean. In: VIANA, A. R. & REBESCO, M. (eds) Economic and Palaeoceanographic Significance of Contourite Deposits. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 276, 129–154.
CARTER, R.M., de FREITAS, C.R., GOKLANY, I.M., HOLLAND, D. & LINDZEN, R.S. 2006 The Stern Review: A Dual Critique. Part I: The Science. World Economics 7, 165-198.
CARTER, R.M. 2006 Great news for the Great Barrier Reef: Tully River water quality. Energy & Environment 17(4), 527-548.
JAMES, N.P., BONE, Y., CARTER, R.M. & MURRAY-WALLACE, C.V. 2006 Origin of the Late Neogene Roe Plains and their calcarenite veneer: implications for sedimentology & tectonics in the Great Australian Bight. Australian Journal of Earth Sciences 53, 407-419.
HOLLAND, M.E., SCHULTHEISS, P.J., CARTER, R.M., ROBERTS, J.A. & FRANCIS, T.J.G. 2005 IODP's untapped wealth:multi-parameter logging of legacy core. Scientific Drilling 1, 50-51.
CARTER, R.M. 2005 The status of local "stages" in the New Zealand Plio-Pleistocene. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics 48, 623-639.
CARTER, R.M. 2005 A New Zealand climatic template back to c. 3.9 Ma: ODP Site 1119, Canterbury Bight, south-west Pacific Ocean, and its relationship to onland successions. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand 35: 9-42.
ABBOTT, S.T., NAISH, T.R., CARTER, R.M. & PILLANS, B.J. 2005 Sequence Stratigraphy of the Nukumaruan stratotype (Pliocene-Pleistocene, c. 2.08-1.63 Ma), Wanganui Basin, New Zealand. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand 35, 123-150.
NAISH, T.R., FIELD, B.D., ZHU, H., MELHUISH, A., CARTER, R.M., ABBOTT, S.T., EDWARDS, S., ALLOWAY, B.V., WILSON, G.S., NIESSEN, F., BARKER, A., BROWNE, G.H. & MASLEN, G. 2005 Integrated outcrop, drill core, borehole and seismic stratigraphic architecture of a cyclothemic, shallow-marine depositional system, Wanganui Basin, New Zealand. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand 35, 91-122.
CARTER, R.M. & NORRIS, R.J. 2005 The Geology of the Blackmount district, Te Anau & Waiau Basins, western Southland. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences, Science Report 2004/23, 97 pp., Figs. 1-156, 1:50 000 map, CD-ROM.
CARTER, R.M., FULTHORPE, C.S.; LU, H. 2004 Canterbury Drifts at ODP Site 1119, N.Z.: climatic modulation of SW Pacific intermediate water flows since 3.9 Ma. Geology 32, 1005-1008.
CARTER, R.M.; GAMMON, P. 2004 New Zealand maritime glaciation: millennial-scale southern climate change since 3.9 Ma. Science, 304, 1659-1662 (supporting online material).
CARTER, R.M., GAMMON, P.R.; MILLWOOD, L. 2004 Glacial-interglacial (MIS 1-10) migrations of the STF across ODP Site 1119, Canterbury Bight, SW Pacific. Marine Geology 205, 29-58.
CARTER, L., CARTER, R.M.; McCAVE, I. 2004 Evolution of the sedimentary system beneath the deep Pacific inflow off eastern New Zealand. Marine Geology 205, 9-27.
GRAHAM, I.J.; CARTER, R.M.; DITCHBURN, R.G.; ZONDERVAN, A. 2004 Chronostratigraphy of ODP 181, Site 1121 (foot of Campbell Plateau, Southwest Pacific Ocean) using 10Be/9Be dating of sediment and entrapped ferromanganese nodules. Marine Geology 205, 227-247.
RICHTER, C.; MCCAVE, I.N.; CARTER, R.M.; CARTER L.; et al. 2004 SW Pacific Gateways, Sites 1119-1125. Proceedings of the Ocean Drilling Program, Scientific Reports 181 plus CD-ROM.
CARTER, R.M., McCAVE, I.N.; CARTER, L. 2004 Fronts, flows, drifts, volcanoes, and the evolution of the southwestern gateway to the Pacific Ocean. In: Proceedings of ODP Scientific Reports In: Richter, C., Carter, R.M., McCave, I.N., Carter, L. et al. 2004 SW Pacific Gateways, Sites 1119-1125. Proceedings of the Ocean Drilling Program, Scientific Reports 181.
LARCOMBE, P.; CARTER, R.M. 2004 Cyclone pumping, sediment partitioning and the development of the GBR shelf system: a review. Quaternary Science Reviews 23, 107-135.
CARTER, R.M., ABBOTT, S.T., GRAHAM, I.J.; NAISH, T.R. 2002 The middle Pleistocene Merced-2 and -3 Sequences from Ocean Beach, San Francisco. Sedimentary Geology 153, 23-51.
DUNBAR, G.B., DICKENS, G.R.; CARTER, R.M. 2000 Sediment flux across the Great Barrier Reef shelf to the Queensland Trough over the last 300 ky. Sedimentary Geology 133, 49-92.

Dr Chris de Freitas

BA (Hons), MA (Toronto), PhD (Q'ld)

Chris de Freitas received his early education in Trinidad, West Indies. He completed Bachelors and Masters degrees at the University of Toronto, Canada and PhD at the University of Queensland, Australia, as a Commonwealth Doctoral Scholar. Each of these degrees involved thesis research on topics in Climatology.
Currently he is an Associate Professor in School of Geography and Environmental Science at University of Auckland in New Zealand. During his time at the University of Auckland he has served as Deputy Dean of Science, Head of Science and Technology and four years as Pro Vice Chancellor. He has been Vice President of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand and is a founding member of the Australia New Zealand Climate Forum. Since 1996 he has been an editor of the international journal Climate Research. From 1999-2001, he served on the Executive Board of the International Society of Biometeorology.

Chris’ research interests cover a variety of themes in the area of climate and the environment. A selection of his publications categorised below gives an indication of the scope of his work. In addition to these, he has written extensively in the popular literature and press on a range of environment-related themes, including air quality, flood and drought hazards, climate change and environmental conservation. In recognition of this, He is three times the recipient of the NZ Association of Scientists, Science Communicator Award, and once the recipient of a New Zealand Association of Scientists Science Communicator Merit Award.
He is co-author of over 200 publications on Environmental themes and has over 30 years in University based research.

Selected Publications
Air Quality
Power, H.C., C.R. de Freitas and J.E. Hay, 1992: Relative effects of climate and source strength on atmospheric lead concentrations in Auckland, New Zealand. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 45, 127-138.
Auliciems, A., C.R. de Freitas and F.K. Hare, 1973: Winter Clothing Requirements for Canada. Climatological Studies, No. 22, Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada, Toronto, 80pp.

Auliciems, A. and C.R. de Freitas, 1976: Cold stress in Canada: a human climatic classification. International Journal of Biometeorology, 20, 287-294.

de Freitas, C.R., 1979: Human climates of northern China. Atmospheric Environment, 13, 71-77.

de Freitas, C.R., N.J. Dawson, A.A. Young and W.J. Mackey, 1985: Microclimate and heat stress of runners in mass participation events. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology (Journal of Applied Meteorology), 24, 184-191.

de Freitas, C.R., 1985: Assessment of human bioclimate based on thermal response. International Journal of Biometeorology, 29, 97-119.

de Freitas, C.R., 1986: Human Thermal Climates of New Zealand. New Zealand Meteorological Service, Ministry of Transport, Misc. Pub. 190, Wellington, 84 pp.

de Freitas, C.R. and L.V. Symon, 1987: A bioclimatic index of human survival times in the Antarctic. Polar Record, 23 (147), 651-659.

de Freitas, C.R., 1987: Bioclimates of heat and cold stress in New Zealand. Weather and Climate, 7, 55-60.

Dawson, N.J., C.R. de Freitas, W.J. Mackey and A.A. Young, 1987: The stressful microclimate created by massed fun-runners. Heat Stress: Physical Exertion and Environment, J.R.S. Hales and D.A.B. Richards (eds.), Excerpta Medica, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 77-82.

de Freitas, C.R. and M.G. Ryken, 1989: Climate and physiological heat strain during exercise. International Journal of Biometeorology, 33, 157-164.
Climate Change
de Freitas, C.R., 1987: Perspectives on the impact of short-term climatic change in New Zealand. New Zealand Geographer, 43, 169-176.

de Freitas, C.R. and A.M. Fowler, 1989: Identifying sensitivity to climatic change at the regional scale: the New Zealand example. Proceedings of 15th. Conference New Zealand Geographical Society, R. Welch (ed.), New Zealand Geographical Society Conference Series, No. 15, Dunedin, 254-261.

Fowler, A.M. and C.R. de Freitas, 1989: Research methods in climate change impact assessment: coping with inadequate forecasts of future climate change. Proceedings of 15th. Conference New Zealand Geographical Society, R. Welch (ed.), New Zealand Geographical Society Conference Series, No. 15, Dunedin, 262-270.

Fowler, A.M. and C.R. de Freitas, 1990: Climate impact studies from scenarios: help or hindrance? Weather and Climate, 10, 3-10.

de Freitas, C.R., 1991: The greenhouse crisis: myths and misconceptions. Area (Institute of British Geographers), 23 (1), 11-19.

de Freitas, C.R., 1994: A critical appraisal of the global warming debate. New Zealand Geographer, 50 (1), 30-33.

de Freitas, C.R., 2000: Greenhouse: a diversion from environmental needs. PESA Bulletin. 12.99/01.00, 57-60.

de Freitas, C.R., 2000: Global Warming as a classroom topic: New perspectives on the climate change debate. New Zealand Journal of Geography, 110, 16-23.

de Freitas, C.R., 2002: Are observed changes in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere really dangerous? Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, 50 (2), 297-327.

de Freitas, C.R., 2003: Greenhouse predictions versus climate realities. New Zealand Geographic, 64, July-August, 6-8.
de Freitas, C.R. and E. Woolmington, 1980: Catastrophe theory and catastasis. Area (Institute of British Geographers), 12 (2), 191-194.
Health and Climate
Frost, D.B., A. Auliciems and C.R.de Freitas, 1992: Myocardial infarct death and temperature in Auckland, New Zealand. International Journal of Biometeorology, 36, 14-17.
Historical Geography
Harris, R.C., P. Roulston and C.R. de Freitas, 1975: The settlement of Mono Township. Canadian Geographer, 19, 1-17.
de Freitas, C.R., R.N. Littlejohn, T.S. Clarkson and I.S. Kristament, 1982: Cave climate: assessment of airflow and ventilation. International Journal of Climatology, 2, 383-397.

de Freitas, C.R. and R.N. Littlejohn, 1987: Cave climate: assessment of heat and moisture exchange. International Journal of Climatology, 7, 553-569.

Enright , N.J. , R.M. Bartlett and C.R. de Freitas, 1993: Patterns of species composition, recruitment and growth within canopy gaps in two New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) forests. New Zealand Journal of Botany, 31, 361-373.

de Freitas, C.R. and N. J. Enright, 1995: Microclimate differences between and within canopy gaps in a temperate rainforest. International Journal of Biometeorology, 38, 188-193.

de Freitas, C.R., 1998: Cave monitoring and management: The Glowworm Cave, New Zealand. In: Cave and Karst Management in Australasia XII. Proceedings of the Twelfth Australasian Conference on Cave and Karst Management, Waitomo, Australasian Cave and Karst Management Association, Carlton South, Victoria, 55-66.

de Freitas, C.R. and K. Banbury, 1999: Build up and diffusion of carbon dioxide in cave air in relation to visitor numbers at the Glowworm Cave, New Zealand. In: Cave Management in Australasia XIII. Proceedings of the Thirteenth Australasian Conference on Cave and Karst Management, Mount Gambier, South Australia. Australasian Cave and Karst Management Association, Carlton South, Victoria, 84-89.

de Freitas, C.R. and A.A. Schmekal, 2003: Condensation as a microclimate process: Measurement and prediction in the Glowworm Tourist Cave, New Zealand.’ International Journal of Climatology, 23 (5), 557-575.
Natural Hazards
de Freitas, C.R., 1975: Estimation of the disruptive impact of snowfall in urban areas. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 14, 1166-1173.

de Freitas, C.R., 1989: The hazard potential of drought for the population of the Sahel . In Population and Disaster, J.I. Clark, P. Curson, S.L. Kayasha and P. Nag (eds.), Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 98-113.

de Freitas, C.R., 1994: Theories on progressive desiccation and desertification: reassessing the drought hazard. Weather and Climate, 14, 11-21.

de Freitas, C.R., 2002: Perceived change in risk of natural disasters caused by global warming. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 17 (3), 34-38. Republished in Engineering World, 13 (1), 2003.

de Freitas, C.R., 2003: Perceived change in risk of natural disasters caused by global warming. Engineering World, 13 (1), 36-39.
Tourism and Recreation
de Freitas, C.R., 1990: Recreation climate assessment. International Journal of Climatology, 10, 89-103.

de Freitas, C.R., 2002: Theory, concepts and methods in tourism climate research. In: A. Matzarakis and C.R. de Freitas (eds.), Proceedings of the First International Workshop on Climate, Tourism and Recreation. Porto Carras , Greece, October 2001. International Society of Biometeorology, Commission on Climate Tourism and Recreation. Porto Carras, Halkidiki, Greece, WP01, 3-20.

de Freitas, C.R., 2003: Tourism climatology: evaluating environmental information for decision making and business planning in the recreation and tourism sector. International Journal of Biometeorology, 48 (1), 45-54.

Matzarakis, A., de Freitas, C.R., Scott, D., 2004: Tourism and recreation climatology. In: Matzarakis, A., de Freitas, C.R., Scott, D. (eds.). Advances in Tourism Climatology. Wiss. Ber. Meteorol. Inst. Univ. Freiburg Nr. 12, 6-10.

de Freitas, C.R, Scott D. and McBoyle, G., 2004: A new generation climate index for tourism. In: Matzarakis, A., de Freitas, C.R., Scott, D. (eds.). Advances in Tourism Climatology. Wiss. Ber. Meteorol. Inst. Univ. Freiburg Nr. 12, 19-27.
de Freitas, C.R, 2004: Methods of sensitivity analysis for assessing impacts of climate change on tourism at the regional scale. In: Matzarakis, A., de Freitas, C.R., Scott, D. (eds.). Advances in Tourism Climatology. Wiss. Ber. Meteorol. Inst. Univ. Freiburg Nr. 12, 116-122.
Matzarakis, A., de Freitas, C.R., Scott, D. (eds.), 2004: Advances in Tourism Climatology. Berichte des Meteorologischen Institutes der Universität Freiburg, Nr. 12, 260 pp.
de Freitas, C.R., 2005: The climate-tourism relationship and its relevance to climate change impact assessment. In: C. Michael Hall and James Higham (eds), Tourism, Recreation and Climate Change, Channel View Publications, Clevedon, NY, pp. 29-43.

de Freitas, C R, 2005. Extreme weather events. In: Stefan Gössling, C. Michael Hall and Robert Richardson, Tourism and Global Environmental Change: Ecological, Social, Economic and Political Interrelationships. Routledge, Chapter 11 (in press).
Weather Forecasting
de Freitas, C.R. and K.M. Wells, 1982: Reassessment of weather forecast terminology and content. Weather and Climate, 2, 16-22.

Dr Kesten C. Green

Kesten Green is a Senior Research fellow at Monash University’s Business and Economic Forecasting Unit in Australia.
He was founder and director in 1985 of Infometrics Limited and in 1982 a founder and director of the publisher Better Informed, a computerized horse-race forecasting magazine. He has been involved in research o forecasting more-or-less continually ever since.

In 1995 he founded the firm Decision Research Ltd.

In 2003 Kesten obtained a PHD from Victoria University in Wellington for a comparison of forecasting methods. One of the articles based on that research was awarded ‘International Journal of forecasting ‘ Best Paper for 2002-2003.
He is co-owner and co-director of the public service forecast information website www.forecastingprinciples.com to encourage the use of scientific forecasting for the public policy decisions.

He is a member of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), the Desiciosn Analysis Society, the International Association for Conflict Management (IACM), the Society for Judgment and decision Making (SJDM), and the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF). He is on the editorial board of the IIF journal Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.

Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Soon, W. (2008). Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces, accepted for publication.
Green, K. C. & Tashman, L. (2008). Should we define forecast error as e = F – A or e = A – F? Foresight, 10, 38-40.
Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts. Energy and Environment, 18, 997-1021.
Green, K. C., Armstrong, J. S., & Graefe, A. (2007). Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared. Foresight, 8, 17-20.
Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Structured analogies for forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 23, 365-376. *
Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). The value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts. Interfaces, 37(3), 287-299. †
Armstrong, J. S. & Green, K. C. (2007). Competitor-oriented objectives: The myth of market share. International Journal of Business, 12 (1), 117-136.
Green, K. C. (2005). Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts: Further evidence. International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 463-472. ‡
Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2005). The war in Iraq: Should we have expected better forecasts? Foresight, 2, 50-52.
Green, K. C. (2005). What can forecasting do for you? Foresight, 1 (1), 53-54.
Green, K. C. (2003). Do practitioners care about findings from management research? Interfaces, 33(6), 105-107.
Green, K. C. (2002). Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: a comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgement International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 321-344. §
Green, K. C. (2002). Embroiled in a conflict: who do you call? International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 389-395.
Working papers and unpublished reports
Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., Jones, R., & Wright, M. (2008). Predicting elections from politicians’ faces. MPRA Paper No. 9150.
Green, K. C. (2008). Assessing probabilistic forecasts about particular situations. MPRA Paper No. 8836.
Green, K. C., Armstrong, J. S., Bush, R. M., & Morse, E. L. (2006). Impact of role playing on the accuracy of predictions in the intelligence community. Report on research commissioned by Disruptive Technology Office, contract 06-894-6336.
Armstrong, J. S. & Green, K. C. (2005). Demand forecasting: Evidence-based methods, Monash University Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Paper 24-05.
Armstrong, J. S. & Green, K. C. (2005). Evidence-based methods for predicting terrorists' decisions: Two new methods and one old method. Paper commissioned by CENTRA Technology, Inc.

Bryan Leyland

Bryan Leyland is a former Principal of Sinclair Knight Merz, a multi-disciplinary engineering consultancy based in Auckland. He holds the qualification of Master of Science (Power System Design), and is a Fellow of the Institution of Electrical Engineers (U.K), a Fellow of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers (U.K), a Fellow of the Institution of Professional Engineers (N.Z).

He was awarded the Institution of Professional Engineers “Supreme Technical Award” in 2005, the IPENZ “Communicator of the year” in 2001 and the Institution of Electrical Engineers Silver Medal in 2005. Leyland was also awarded the Electricity Engineers Association “Meritorious Service Award” in 2004 and was made an Honorary Life Member of the Association in 2005. He was a Director of Vector Limited (New Zealand largest Electricity Distribution Company) from 2003 – 2005.

He is currently a Member of the Common Quality Advisory Group of the Electricity Commission. This group advises the Electricity Commission on factors affecting the operation of the New Zealand power system. The group has a special interest in the effect of intermittent generation such as windpower on the operation of the New Zealand power system.

Leyland was also a member of an International Panel of Experts which was formed to identify, investigate and solve major engineering problems at a 2000 MW hydroelectric power station in Iran.
Currently he is a member of the Expert Advisory Group for the 5900 MW Kalpasar tidal power scheme north of Mumbai in India, which if built will be about 15 times larger than the largest tidal power scheme in operation.

He has had an active interest in windpower since about 1980, when assisting with the mechanical and electrical aspects of costing a large wind farm using vertical axis wind turbines. He is widely versed in all aspects of Wind Energy and has collated a large database of articles describing the cost and performance of existing wind farms and their effects on the operation of the power system.

He was a member of a group called together by the New Zealand government to give advice regarding the 2003 electricity shortage.
He has in the past consulted to Meridian Energy on the options for connecting the proposed Project Aqua hydropower scheme to the transmission system, and was able to propose alternatives that would have resulted in a considerable cost reduction to the design of that project had it gained resource consent..

His particular expertise is as an Electrical and Mechanical Engineer in power system operation and optimisation, transmission systems, distributed generation, hydropower generation, thermal power stations, cogeneration, and power system design and protection. From 1992 until 2003 he was responsible for biannual reviews of electricity supply and demand in New Zealand. Those documents are still the only publicly available comprehensive and independent review.

Over the last fifteen years he has made numerous presentations at conferences and written articles for newspapers on power planning, the problems faced by the New Zealand electricity system, the risk of shortages resulting from insufficient generating capacity and the risk of blackouts resulting from an overloaded transmission system. As well as been interviewed for radio and television news programmes on these subjects.

Articles by Bryan Leyland: refer to http://homepage.mac.com/bryanleyland/Menu4.html

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