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NEWSFLASH: First Exit Poll Results Favour Kerry

EDITOR'S NOTE: Scoop will be providing running newsflashes of breaking news from the US elections today. To kick the day off we have some leaked exit poll results which come via http://democraticunderground.com via http://dailykos.com via http://slate.com (all of which will be good sources of news this afternoon.) For the latest Scoops on the US Elections see... http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/index.html#sow

NEWSFLASH: First Exit Poll Results Favour Kerry


BUSH IS WINNING IN...
Nevada
Kerry 48 Bush 50

Colorado
Kerry 46 Bush 53

North Carolina
Kerry 49 Bush 51

KERRY IS WINNING IN...
Pennsylvannia
Kerry 54 Bush 45

Ohio
Kerry 50 Bush 49

Florida
Kerry 50 Bush 49

Michigan
Kerry 51 Bush 47

New Mexico
Kerry 50 Bush 48

Wisconsin
Kerry 51 Bush 46

At first blush - if these results prove accurate - then Kerry will have won the election carrying both Ohio and Florida by a nose and Pennsylvannia, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Michigan relatively comfortably.

However with Florida and Ohio both separated by only one point (and noting that in exit polls in 2000 Gore won Florida by three points) nothing will be certain for some time yet.

Florida has 27 electoral college votes and Ohio 20 electoral college votes. In order to win a candidate needs to win at least 270 votes. (For further information on the electoral college system see...http://www.electoral-vote.com)

While polling places officially close in some Eastern states at approximately 1pm NZ Time, in several states all those queing as of that time will still be allowed to vote. And with two, three and four hour queues reported in some states it is probable that voting will not be completed in some parts of the Eastern United States (and particularly in democratic leaning counties in Ohio and Florida) till as late as 10pm or 11pm.

Therefore, unless Kerry wins an early lead in sufficient states to make Ohio and Florida irrelevant, there is likely to be a very long night of counting ahead.

(continuing...)

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