Agenda: Mike Smith - Tax Cuts: "Watch This Space"

Labour Party President Mike Williams is hinting that the Government might introduce income tax cuts next year.

On TVOne's "Agenda" today, Mr. Williams conceded that by itself Kiwisaver would not be an election winner.

But when asked if there would be tax cuts he said the recently announced Fonterra payout to farmers of 1.4 billion dollars would give Finance Minister, Michael Cullen, more fiscal freedom in his budget next year.

"It's very good news obviously - it's certainly a big cash flow into rural communities. The tax take presumably will. get some of that. And that will give a great deal of flexibility to Dr Cullen in the election year budget."

Mr. Williams did not elaborate on what form any possible tax cuts would take, but indicated his personal preference would be along the lines of the Working for Families scheme.

"Effectively the working for families is a tax cut for people with children. as a Labour party person I like to see more of that kind of assistance to people with families"

Up To Ten Mps Will Retire

Labour Party President Mike Williams expects up to ten MPs to retire before the next election.

Speaking on TVOne's Agenda programme, Mr. Williams said: "There are a significant number of retirements going to.we think probably six or eight may be ten will retire - people who feel they've done their dash made their contribution."

He said there were many people wanting to replace those who would retire, but would not be drawn on announcing who the possible candidates will be.

However he did explain that there would be an emphasis on having business candidates join Labour's ranks.

"What is encouraging is that I have at least four business people who want to be in. that is a direction I've tried to push the party in - I think we have had a deficit of private enterprise people but that is being addressed."

Transcript For 26 May 2007 Follows

Copyright to Front Page Ltd but may be used PROVIDED attribution is made to TVOne and Agenda

AGENDAPresented by Lisa Owen

BEHIND IN THE POLLSHow Labour plans to win

LISA Labour came out firing over Kiwi Saver this week confident of its voter appeal, but if recent polls are anything to go by the party machine still has a lot of work to do before the next election. Critics say that Labour looks tired and point to the recent defection of United Future MP Gordon Copeland as evidence that it's running out of allies, and now the Police plan to charge former Labour MP turned Independent Taito Phillip Field. Labour Party President Mike Williams joins me now. Good morning Mike, I suppose the bottom line is how do you plan to win the election next year?

MIKE WILLIAMS - Labour Party President Well I'm the President of a political party and we have targets which we have to meet, targets of membership and money and from where I sit things are going very well indeed. Quite obviously we raised a huge amount of money for the refund three months ahead of schedule.

LISA The big whip around.

MIKE The big whip around, very successful, our party is financially very healthy, we gained 20% in our membership last year and 10% incrementally this year.

LISA So what kind of membership numbers is that?

MIKE Well we never reveal that, but it's heading in the right direction, we're heading north, which is counter intuitive for a party in its third term in office, but from where I sit administratively, financially, in terms of membership we're going very well indeed.

LISA But would you accept that you've potentially got some problem areas, you've got Taito Phillip Field well Independent in Mangere, how do you plan to secure the support of the Pacific Island community out there.

MIKE Well I don't think we've lost the support of the Pacific Island community and I think that was demonstrated yesterday when about 150 pp turned up. The Pacific Island community is one of the really most loyal blocks in the Labour Party it never flinches in terms of its support, what we would hope for with the Pacifika people is that their participation rate increases because the turnout of Pacific people in election is quite low and the only way to affect that is by really good local campaigns and I think we are certainly putting together a very good local campaign in Mangere and indeed the whole of South Auckland.

LISA How do you intend to have an impact on that voter turnout specifically, what are you going to be doing?

MIKE Well it's on the ground organisation, you know you've gotta convince people that it's in their best interests to turn out to vote and give them every opportunity to do so. Now we managed that in the last general election, I mean you saw it happen on election night when South Auckland and West Auckland came in very strongly for Labour and put us over the top in terms of winning the election and it's just more of the same Lisa really.

LISA Is it going to be more visits from Helen Clark out to that electorate as part of that strategy?

MIKE Well Helen's very busy anyhow but yes, MMP is quite a different beast to FPP, every vote counts and that's been a penny that's been slow to drop with a lot of people. When I was a marginal seat organiser in the 1980s I never went anywhere near South Auckland because it was so safe for Labour, but now I spend a lot of time there, so you're looking at these strongholds being able to really bolster the Labour vote going into 2008.

LISA If we can look at your leader, Helen Clark, she has slipped in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, what are you doing to rebuild that brand, her brand.

MIKE Well I don't think there's anything wrong with her brand, I mean I've expressed this on your programme before, a businessman on Friday said to me that he thought that not only was Helen Clark the best Prime Minister this country's ever had, he thought she was the best Prime Minister this country will ever have and I just think, I mean I'm obviously biased Lisa but I think Helen is the best Prime Minister we've ever had and I think when it comes to the crunch in an election campaign you'll see that.

LISA So why say is her popularity then flagging or being seen to flag in these recent polls?

MIKE I don't believe it is and I would say three things about polls, one that market research in New Zealand, political market research is becoming an increasingly bad predictor of election results and we saw that in the last election where of course TVNZ's own Colmar Brunton had Labour losing by 6% and Labour won by 2%. The second thing is I think you're looking at a honeymoon period for John Key and what happens after honeymoons of course is the cold light of day when the journalists start really looking at people and the question will be asked of John Key you know for example why did he maintain and electoral address and vote at a place he didn't live at, and he did that for a long time, it's that kind of close scrutiny that's due, and the third thing I think with the polls is you're looking at the spill back from a whole lot of things that occurred before that, the rise in interest rates, the Fisher & Paykel close down and I think also the spill back from the child discipline bill, that is still there but I would look to that to right itself within the next month.

LISA So you think you can ride through that?

MIKE Oh I've no doubt we can, it is very difficult as we've seen in Australia for an incumbent government to be defeated at a time of economic boom and that's what's going on here, I mean this is what's happened in Queensland where Peter Beattie was well behind, New South Wales where Maurice Yenner was well behind and indeed John Howard came from behind to beat Mark Latham in the last federal election, so I think as long as you've got the basics right which is a sound economy, good leadership and good political organisation the Labour Party will be very competitive in the next general election.

LISA What significant faces are we gonna see in the Labour line up of candidates?

MIKE Well you will see new faces now I can't name names but only yesterday I heard of a name that you would know who wants to run for Labour and add that to the list of about ten or eleven.

LISA Give us a few more clues.

MIKE No I won't do that because obviously you've gotta go through a democratic process and these people come in and test the water they test the water with me and with Helen and you know I encourage them but it's quite difficult to become a Labour MP>

LISA Alright well let's look at some of the older faces say Michael Cullen, how much of a hard sell is he going to be after eight budgets and no tax cuts?

MIKE I'm a very strong supporter of Michael Cullen, I think that New Zealanders have a bedrock desire to have somebody responsible in charge of the cheque book, and I don't mind him being called Scrooge by some people because what that's saying is that people actually trust him with their money, so I don't want him to go anywhere fast.

LISA And do you think that that image of him as Scrooge is not gonna be damaging to you?

MIKE Well you can take it too far and I think that the budget in my view has been a real winner, I mean I've been to 15 businesses since the budget came out they're all very keen on Kiwi Saver and you know just discussing it within my whanau I'm trying to work out a way of getting into it myself, strictly speaking I'm a company director so it's difficult for me to do so, but I am very interested in this.

LISA Is Kiwi Saver though enough to win the next election?

MIKE No I don't think it is but I think it's part of Labour looking over the horizon and saying you know what is our vision of New Zealand and there are a lot of things in that budget that are kind of slow burners, I mean there's the electrification of the Auckland rail network, that was promised by Dove-meyer Robinson when I was in my 20s, it's gonna happen under this budget, there's Kiwi Saver where people can put money away to get a house and for retirement, my daughters are very interested in that. There's a whole lot of things in that budget that people are thinking about and you know budgets done sink in immediate Lisa, they're slow burners and the kind of chitchat that I'm hearing is that this is a great budget for the future of New Zealand and I would also say that John key and the National Party and particularly Bill English were obviously caught completely flat footed by that, I mean there was absolutely no substance in any of their speeches after the budget.

LISA In terms of the election strategy do you believe tax cuts should be part of that?

MIKE I don't really have any opinion on that, certainly part of the mix, I mean there was a significant business tax cut in this election. Tax cuts are a very sort of blunt weapon to redistribute income and we'll wait and see, there's certainly I think possibly room for that but how that's executed I don't know, I mean effectively the Working for Families is a tax cut for people with children and there are a lot of people benefiting from that, and certainly has you know made a big difference to people very close to me, I'd certainly as a Labour Party person I like to see more of that kind of assistance to people with families.

LISA Look this week we've heard Fonterra is pumping, well returning 1.4 billion dollars, what difference is that going to make?

MIKE Well it's very good news obviously, it's certainly big cashflows into rural communities, another tax take presumably the tax man will get some of that and that will give a great deal of flexibility to Dr Cullen in the election year budget, there's another one to come.

LISA Alright let's throw it open to our panel, first Duncan Wilson.

DUNCAN WILSON - Parliamentary Producer, Agenda Mike Williams can you afford specifically to have Dr Cullen still around given his association with those kind of Scrooge cartoons with his failure to distribute tax cuts?

MIKE Well I've already said that I actually don't object to much to that. To have a Labour government with a reputation for being careful with my money is I think a very good thing.

DUNCAN But a lot of your own Labour supporters want tax cuts as well though, doesn't that concern you?

MIKE Well I don't know that that's true I haven't seen a piece of research that says that. Effectively I've said you know there has been a tax cut for business, the first since 1966, National when it had the chance never did it, and just watch this space.

GUYON ESPINER - Political Editor, TVNZ I'm quite interested in some of the strategic things that I'm sure exercise in your minds when you read polls like the one in the New Zealand Herald today. I mean presumably you accept the possibility that Labour is not going to be the largest party at the next election, that leads you through to what electoral deals you might need to make with others. Do you see a closer relationship with the Greens, perhaps getting the Greens to vote for the next budget rather than just abstaining and going in as a team?

MIKE You're asking me to comment outside of my job description, this is not what I do. My job is to maximise the Labour Party's party vote because under MMP the biggest party gets the first shot. Now I don't think, I have not seen any reason why Labour could not again be the biggest party in parliament. The point I'd make is that I've yet to see a significant coalition partner for National.

GUYON Possibly one reason may be they're looking at some of the same old tired faces, I mean what are you doing to try and rejuvenate the party, where are the new people where are the new faces that are coming through?

MIKE Well there will be some, there are a significant number of retirements going to occur, I haven't asked yet who is going and who is staying and I won't do that.

GUYON So you're saying a significant number of Labour MPs will retire before the next election?

MIKE Yeah well I mean you can work it out for yourself. We think probably six or eight maybe ten will retire, people who feel they've done their dash, made their contribution and we'll be very thankful to those people, and you will see some very interesting faces in the Labour Party line up and I won't, as I said to Lisa earlier.

LISA How long are we gonna have to wait for that?

MIKE Oh we won't - well we'll call for nominations in some of the electorates this year once the boundaries are settled, but I wouldn't think we'll start the List selection process until very late this year and maybe early next year.

DUNCAN Do you have any candidates in mind already, I mean Andrew Little was one who was floated but of course he pulled out, are there any others of that standing?

MIKE Yeah.

DUNCAN` Who are they?

MIKE I'm not telling you, it's democratic process, people have to go through it and you know the first step is to identify yourself as a potential candidate to me or to Helen.

LISA What sort of fields do they come from though Mike?

MIKE Oh business, sport, farming, unions, education, academia, what's encouraging I think is I've got at least four business people who want to be in and that's a direction I've tried to push the party in, I think we have had a deficit of private enterprise people but that is being addressed.

GUYON Do you think that Labour's also really struggling because National has finally found a leader that has some popular appeal in a way that Don Brash just did not have?

MIKE Well I think the jury's out, and as I said to you in the Green Room Guyon I think that the media has not really had that close intrusive look at John Key that they've done with Helen Clark and the pattern appears to be and this is true in Australia and New Zealand is that almost any new leader gets a honeymoon period, gets welcomed and oh this is you know a bright face and of course the media are interested obviously you know who is this person, what's their family, what's their background. We know very little about John Key, a businessman who's met him said to me the other day that he wasn't that impressed, he thought he was - what was the quote - all tip and no iceberg, and I think that you saw that with the budget speech. I both watched it and read it and watching it it was quite impressive, reading it there was no substance whatsoever, what did he say.

DUNCAN Going back specifically though to how you'll sell your plans and how you will take the attack back to National are there particular say MPs within Labour that you will use say against some of National's MPs that aren't performing as well, say in other areas like social development that are quite key to Labour?

MIKE I'm not quite sure what you're asking me, but do we sort of pick out.

DUNCAN Well I'm wondering if for instance you'll have Judith Collins lined up and whether she's for instance someone you want subject to more scrutiny both inside parliament and out?

MIKE Again you're outside my job description. I think there are some very weak links in the National Party and I think that as people begin to speculate on National as a potential government and the media start saying who's going to be minister of what and all that kind of thing, the first thing you'll find is that it's National that actually lacks the renewal, that the faces of the National Party front bench, McCully, Williamson, Ryall are actually raised from the grave, they were failures in the 90s and once you sort of look past John Key you discover all of these fairly geriatric failures. That process has gotta happen, but no we don't kind of pick off people.

LISA Right can I just ask you Mr Williams about something that appeared in the Trans Tasman Newsletter this week, there was a suggestion that Labour could be offering free rides to some of its friends in parliament in certain electorates so that you can shore up our support after the election, maybe not run a candidate, allow them a free go. Is that something you're looking at?

MIKE Traditionally we put Labour candidates up in every electorate okay, I think that's what you're asking, and the reason for that is we feel that anyone who wants to vote Labour should have a Labour candidate. There are some exceptions to that though. If you recall when Winston Peters resigned from parliament and went to a by-election we did not put up a candidate. When Tariana Turia resigned from parliament and went to a by-election we did not put up a candidate.

LISA Well you talk about Winston Peters there, again the suggestion was that perhaps he's one of the people you're looking to do a deal with maybe in Auckland, is that something under consideration, have you talked about it?

MIKE I don't think there would be any deal to be done in Auckland, Auckland is a very very strong Labour town and we would be maximising the party vote anywhere but you know we haven't discussed this, this is in the area of tactics rather than strategy and these are decisions that are made much closer to elections.

LISA Are you expecting any early retirements in the Labour line up?

MIKE No I'm not.

LISA So no one's gonna go before the next election through retirement?

MIKE Well they haven't told me and I would be the first person they would tell.

LISA I want to just take you back to Fonterra payout, and you said it's going to give Dr Cullen quite a bit of leeway, so is that code for we can expect personal tax cuts, what do you mean exactly by the fact he's gonna have leeway?

MIKE No you are well outside of my job description, I have to build and run a political party and that's one job, the other job is I have to prepare the political party for election campaign. I do have opinions which I express internally within the party but I don't express them externally on programmes like Agenda.

GUYON You're talking about building and running a political party which costs money, you've just paid back what is it 800 odd thousand dollars.

MIKE Eight hundred and 24 thousand 524 dollars to be exact Guyon.

GUYON You'd be counting the cents I imagine, but are you gonna have the money next time, that's pretty much an election that you've had to pay back there, I mean are you confident that you're going to be resourced to actually fight National which I imagine is going to be pretty well funded next time?

MIKE Yeah I'm absolutely confident. You've got to remember that not only did we raise the $824,000 we've also already paid off a $200,000 debt which we took to win the last general election. So the party is financially very healthy, we have obviously a very very strong focus on fundraising. I have doubled the number of businesses that I would normally visit in a non election year and it's paying off. We have a lot of activity at a local level fundraising. We've got a major fundraising exercise coming up in Auckland in the next couple of weeks.

GUYON But were you banking on state funding being introduced because Labour was trying to push that through?

MIKE No we've always - we budget very conservatively and we've always budgeted as if state funding is not going to happen.

GUYON Is it something though that you're still pushing for?

MIKE Oh yes, the party is strongly in favour of full transparency of political donations, no third party intermediaries like Exclusive Brethren and state funding of political parties which is basically the Australian and European pattern. We do support that, we couldn't get a majority for it this time so we fight.

LISA Alright thank you very much gentlemen, we're out of time.

CHRISTIANITY FIRST: Are all religions equal?

LISA Next week Helen Clark will host the third Asia Pacific Regional Interfaith Dialogue at Waitangi. The aim of the forum is to promote religious tolerance and understanding and as such Clark will deliver a draft statement on New Zealand's own religious diversity, that statement says that New Zealand has no official or established religion and this has upset some people who believe that New Zealand is very much a Christian country. Destiny Church is organising a Christian rally to coincide with the forum and its leader Bishop Brian Tamaki joins me now. Good morning. Do you think all religions are equal in this country?

BISHOP BRIAN TAMAKI - Destiny Church Well I just think we have a strong Christian heritage in New Zealand and we ought not to be ashamed of that or backward in being forward about courageously saying who we are and what our national identity is as far as it goes with religion and that's Christianity. So we're saying no this is a Christian country, it has an established Christian heritage over 170 years that underpins much of our constitutional, political, judicial and social arrangements, so it just amuses me to see that the head of state Prime Minister Helen Clark is going to a religious interfaith forum and talk about religion not mixing with politics, here we have politics now coming into religion to present New Zealand as religiously neutral to what is mostly the Muslim and Hindu countries.

LISA What then does your stand mean for those other religions, if you think that this country is a Christian country it should be declared that, what implications would that have for other religions in your view?

BRIAN Well it will have implications because if we're secure enough to say well we recognise our Christian heritage and so establish that, then the outworking of that is going to be some certain conditions that apply for instance and I would put this out very straight and straightforward about this, that the Quran for instance would not have the same place or position as the Bible when it comes to swearing in parliament of our oaths of allegiance, and neither do I see that we have to extract our Christian god, Jesus Christ, out of prayer so that we don't offend other religions or people's beliefs, that's just one part of it.

LISA So given that perhaps some of the religions we see now in New Zealand are arriving through immigration, what's your stand on people coming into the country, immigrants who are practising different faiths.

BRIAN We're open, everybody's welcome and people have the freedom of religious choice and we're not imposing our Christianity or our beliefs on people but I think it's good enough to respect and honour our Christian heritage, establish that and then people come on those terms, welcome but you're coming to a Christian country, and I think most New Zealanders agree with that, that this is a Christian country.

LISA You're welcome but you can't practise your faith as freely as you might want to?

BRIAN Well if you officially recognise our Christian heritage and our Christianity as being our national identity our founding religion then that would have obvious consequences, so the Bible would then be sworn upon in the swearing in and our prayers would retain Jesus Christ at the end of it. So there would have to be those understandings and so we're not going to remove those just because other religions come and we're insecure about our beliefs and our religious identity. If you go to a Muslim country, if you go to a Hindu country I respect the religion and I accept that, I don't go there wanting to remove their symbols and begin to take out Allah out of their prayers and put Jesus Christ in there, that ain't gonna happen, and I won't see the next day through by the way.

LISA What's the difference between what you're suggesting that you'd like to see here than say here than say enforcing Sharia law?

BRIAN We're not enforcing it, we're recognising and establishing what has already been a mainstay of our country's religious institutions, Christianity and I think because this government has particularly gone out of its way to attempt to tamper with that I think that we should as a country as a whole should be discussing it together and saying well do we and should we now establish Christianity as our official religion.

LISA Let's bring our panel in on this conversation, going first to Duncan Wilson.

DUNCAN Can you just begin by clarifying the relationship between the Destiny Party and Phillip Field's proposed party because it seems that these two different vehicles are diverging and you're saying now as I understand it that you'll stand in 08 regardless of Taito Phillip Field, he's also got his own vehicle and he's trying to get the support as well. What's the relationship like between you and him?

BRIAN Well that hasn't got much to do with our Christian heritage has it, this is another question it's a political one, I think we just need to get back to what the issue is here that we see now politics beginning to enter into religion and Helen Clark is doing this next week on Tuesday at Waitangi our birthplace as a nation. I think most New Zealanders ought to be aware of what's really happening here.

GUYON But you're wanting to put religion into politics yourself, that's the idea, you're in this poll here, we were talking about this before, you're starting to get some support, you're trying to get into parliament aren't you?

BRIAN Let me put it like this, I think now many New Zealanders and the public are aware now we have a moral crisis, we have a booze culture problem, we have a drug problem, we have family breakdown and I think it's fair to say that we lack good traditional family values in parliament and probably in society in general, so I think it's reasonable to expect that most people are saying now well if it takes a religion or a belief or a faith or whatever it is, but I think we need some good family values come back into our homes so that we can cut down some of the crime and the dysfunction we're seeing in society.

DUNCAN Your comments on values though they speak to say New Zealand First concerns would you think of approaching that party and going through them?

BRIAN Well that's just something that we're not even considering at this stage and I think the importance here now is to see that our Christian heritage is in jeopardy and that's most important because we're dealing with society as a whole with the breakdown again in family, and the problem, I mean you see it in the paper today about our booze culture problem, our drug problem, and our crime rates, you know you've got to understand something here that I think it's time that we realised that we need some good traditional family values established again, and that comes about by having a faith.

LISA Mr Tamaki though is the Christian values in jeopardy, you talk about wanting to neutralise the country religiously but this draft statement acknowledges the role of Christianity in the foundation of this country and aims .

BRIAN No it doesn't acknowledge the role of it because it says in the statement .

LISA In the preamble it does.

BRIAN In the first statement it says it is not an official or established religion. Let's be straight and clear here if I said that in street language it says that we are religiously neutral and it's basically leaving a void for other religions of this world which they would take up readily to come in and establish yourself which they already have. I'm saying they're welcome and everybody has a choice .

LISA If they take second place. They're welcome if they take second place. Can we just be clear on that?

BRIAN Yes it does in some aspects. Not all, they're still free to choose their religion and their belief but if we recognise what's already in existence our Christian heritage established that, then obviously that's going to have some outcomes in our parliamentary processes, constitution and our social arrangements.

LISA Isn't that why perhaps there is a need for a statement on religious tolerance, the view that you've expressed there that some religions should take a second place.

BRIAN I think Christianity is one of the most tolerant religions on the earth, right now people are free to come and establish their beliefs in a Christian culture, but if you and I went to a Muslim country tomorrow I can assure you I could not set up a Christian church and live to the end of the week.

LISA But we're talking about how this country should be run, so what about the 50% or almost 50% of the population who are not Christian?

BRIAN I don't think that holds water because if you took this out to the people, people are saying now and even though they may not be a Christian or attend church they would say I believe New Zealand's a Christian nation.

GUYON In terms of your - you're saying there's been a moral breakdown and we need higher standards and that needs to be represented by our politicians, but actually getting into that building it's gonna be pretty hard for Destiny isn't it because we've had this idea before, your ideas aren't new we've had people saying that we need a Christian based political party but they've never made it.

BRIAN Well it's always been clear Guyon from day one and I think New Zealanders are seeing our consistency and our message, because family values is a real issue right now, that's not represented in parliament and I think .

GUYON But you've had the United Future Party, you've got the Families Commission.

BRIAN The United Future Party wasn't a Christian party.

GUYON Well it had a bolt on Christian element to it, you just saw it fall off the other day.

BRIAN Well it wasn't consistent and you've seen it come apart, and we're still here and the front page of the Herald today only had three political parties, Labour, National, and Destiny.

GUYON But the other number in there was 1.3% I think, you're going to need 5% on order to win a seat, I mean it's a pretty big challenge for you.

BRIAN That's right we can win a seat.

GUYON In Mangere, is that what you're after?

LISA Mangere? Is that the seat?

BRIAN Well I think Mangere in South Auckland which again there are people who care about the values and family values and morals so we're in a with a good chance.

LISA Alright thank you very much for joining us this morning, Brian Tamaki.

FINAL THOUGHTS - GUEST COMMENTATORS

LISA Let's talk about the race for the election next year, deals you know we talked a little bit about that with Mike Williams what are you hearing around the traps about whether they are wanting to cut some deals with friendly parties?

DUNCAN Well I think that Trans Tasman tip about the possibility of a free run for New Zealand First in a Labour seat is probably going a bit too far, I mean what we saw in 2005 there were informal sounding outs between National Party and New Zealand First, even got to the stage it was signing portfolios, but that got a little bit too loud and then of course the leaders were forced to deny the claims, but we may see a bit more of that perhaps in 2008 and certainly the fact that New Zealand first are in a government agreement with Labour makes that sort of chatter a lot easier to come across.

LISA Do you think they will be wheeling and dealing?

GUYON Not on that one, I think it would be wrong headed of Labour to give Winston Peters a free ride, I think that pretty much if New Zealand First is in parliament Labour loses. I think you're looking at the situation where Labour probably won't be the largest party if we're looking at the poll trends and if that's the case New Zealand First's position is to go with the largest party, so that would align them with National, I think it's in Labour's interests for New Zealand First not to be there.

LISA What did you make of Mike Williams there on this massive amount of money from Fonterra going back to the farmers and into the economy and he was saying basically watch this space not wanting to say much on the personal tax cuts, reading between the lines?

GUYON He did actually say didn't he that he did think it was part of the mix and he thought there was room for it, and of course the argument could come round for Michael Cullen actually quite nicely, I mean he's been able to argue this time that tax cuts weren't a good idea economically because they would just stoke inflation, but if the economy does slow and inflationary pressure is less then he may be in a position to argue both on political and economic grounds that he can give some sort of tax cuts. The hardest thing for him will be actually to sell it because he's been so reluctant to do it how credible is it going to look in election year for him to suddenly deliver personal tax cuts, the political credibility of that.

DUNCAN His Labour colleagues are saying that as well aren't they, they point to the Howard election across the ditch and say well you know if the tides going out against the government and you then do give tax cuts or an enormous kind of lolly scramble it's just seen by voters as quite cynical politics.

GUYON Yeah that is a problem for me, he said at the budget he doesn't do lolly scrambles but you can imagine that they are working on some strategy, might not call it tax cuts but there'll be some big prizes in there, last time they pulled out interest free student loans, Working for Families which Mike Williams is right, it is a kind of targeted tax cuts for people with families they just won't call it a tax cut, you can bet there'll be some big prize in there.

LISA We mixed a bit of religion and politics this morning, you had Brian Tamaki here, Destiny Church, how do you see them all fitting into the picture, the mix, Taito Phillip Field, Destiny Church and Labour out there in that Mangere electorate.

DUNCAN Well if you believe Labour and that these really are good economic times perhaps people then do have the luxury I guess to look at say moral issues and think well is this what I'm happy about, am I happy about my society and the direction at which this country is going and perhaps some of the polls we've seen have reflected that, I mean I'm sure that's what provoked Destiny in New Zealand's rise in the polls.

LISA So a window of opportunity there perhaps Duncan.

GUYON Yeah I think there probably is you know we saw with the smacking bill a lot of interest around that but I think the difficulty will be actually putting it together, you know if you've got Gordon Copeland and his party possibly Future New Zealand. Taito Phillip Field trying to do his thing, and Brian Tamaki trying to do his thing you could well split that vote, that Christian based vote too thinly and they could end up not getting in at all, it hasn't happened so far and we haven't seen a Christian based party really get over the line and I think they're going to struggle.

LISA He's talking about perhaps putting a candidate in there.

GUYON Yeah and Manger's gonna be the real battle ground for that, so I think that's the one that he's gonna target.

LISA Looking forward to the week ahead what's on the agenda?

DUNCAN Well in terms of parliament we're in recess but there are a few sort of thrashings out going on behind the scenes, I mean there's Labour's Maori caucus who are adamant that they won't support Anderson's fisheries bill over sustainability, they say it will hurt their rights under the Treaty. There's the Greens usual back and forth, now they're refusing to support a petrol regional tax unless a certain amount of it is committed to public transport.

LISA So bubbling away in the background.

DUNCAN Yeah yeah we'll see what going on there, and of course we'll come back and there'll be the election spending bill.

LISA Thank you very much for joining us this morning.

ENDS

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