Book Reviews | Gordon Campbell | News Flashes | Scoop Features | Scoop Video | Strange & Bizarre | Search

 


Setup for a Stolen Election? AP Poll "Tightens"

Setup for a Stolen Election?

AP Poll "Tightens" Race to a Point

Michael Collins
"Scoop" Independent News

The Associated press came out with a remarkable poll Thursday. It claimed that the presidential race had tightened from the consistent leads Obama has shown over the past weeks to become one of those "too close to call" national elections. Their poll, conducted by German polling firm GfK, showed 44% for Obama and 43% for McCain.

How could this be? In the Real Clear Politics average of major national polls, Oct 24, Obama's average lead is 7.5%. The four national polls conducted on the same days as the AP poll show an average 9.2% Obama lead. The polls after the AP "tightening" effort shows an 8.7% Obama lead. Clearly the AP-GfK poll is an exception or outlier, as those are called.

Yet the AP presents this as news, not opinion.

What is AP Up To?

AP acknowledges that its poll is different from the other national polls but claims it's not "alone." It isn't. There is exactly one other poll that agrees with AP out of 16 presented on the Real Clear Politics summary for Oct. 24.

AP ignores the tentative nature of the poll and presents the story as "news." It begins drawing conclusions from the poll at the start of the article with "rumors" from unidentified sources;

"The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord." AP, Oct. 23, 2008

Reviewing the internal details and questions of the poll analysis by GfK, there are no questions about Joe the Plumber. Since this is the opening claim, mentioned again as central to the shift AP is selling us, it's important to look at how the debate was viewed by the public.

CNN and CBS both did national polls the evening of the debate. CNN reported that 58% of those watching the debate thought Obama won, with only 31% favoring McCain. CBS polled uncommitted voters who judged Obama the winner over McCain by 53% to 22%. This was the biggest margin for Obama for the series of three counters. What was going on with the AP sample of voters?

AP's Flawed Poll

The Associated Press is no stranger to polling. It is the lead sponsor for the national exit polls for Presidential and Congressional elections. Their recent effort in 2006 surveyed over 13,000 individuals and produced detailed demographic results on voters that actually contradict their current effort.

The built in bias of the AP poll is obvious when one reviews the internals. 45% of the 800 person likely voter sample described themselves as "born again or evangelical" Christians. The remaining 55% said no (AP-GfK p. 24). AP should have known that it's 2006 exit poll showed that 36% of respondents were born again, a much lower percentage than included in their McCain friendly poll of yesterday. Also, AP should have known the 2006 exit poll the group had a 60% preference for Republican candidates over Democrats.

The election magic for McCain was complete before the presidential preferences were even sampled. The over representation of Christians and the born agains in the sample guaranteed a preference for McCain.

But there was more. A look at the poll shows that 1,101 registered voters were surveyed. The final poll consisted of 800 "likely voters" taken from that group. The registered voters divided up with 48% for Obama and 38% for McCain. The reduction of Obama support and increase for McCain indicates that McCain's voters are highly motivated to turnout while Obama's are more likely to stay home.

This contradicts the actual evidence available showing major gains in newly registered voters for Obama and huge advantages in primary turnout for Democrats compared Republicans. It's small crowds for McCain and record breaking gatherings for Obama around the country, including 35,000 in Leesburg, Virginia on Thursday Oct. 23.

In polling, the sample determines the outcome of a poll. If you bias the poll sample toward groups that are well known to support one party, then the poll will reflect that sample selection. In this case, AP, GfK did just that. They created a Republican friendly sample which displayed more motivation to vote because it started out Republican friendly.

The AP-GfK "Giveaway"

Within the details of the poll, there's a major clue that something is very wrong.

The likely voter sample was asked questions that are directly related to attacks and negative campaigning. Voters are consistent in decrying what they perceive as unfair attacks.

Note how they perceive each candidate's "attacks" during the campaign:


(AP-GfK p. 18)

AP wants us to believe that the same sample that made these responses also showed lower than average support for Obama and higher for McCain even. A clear majority describe McCain and Palin as "mostly unfair" in their attacks on Obama. An equally clear majority of the sample say that the Obama and Biden attacks on McCain are "mostly fair."

Are They Preparing Us for a "Surprise?"

On a recent Larry King show, the anchors for the major networks were asked for a prediction on the presidential election. Brian Williams of NBC practically came out of his seat when he encouraged viewers to get up and "run" from anyone who tells you that they know how this election will come out. The other anchors echoed these sentiments.

This is the very worst type of news commentary. How could Williams know that a month or so ago? Why would the others just bob their heads? Are they preparing us for something "special?"

The analysis of the AP, ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC "media consortium" final exit poll might provide a clue: Election 2004: The Urban Legend.

The past is prolog.

END

Permission is granted to reproduce this article in whole or in part with attribution of authorship and a link to this article.

**************

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Top Scoops Headlines

 

Syed Atiq ul Hassan: Eye-Opener For Islamic Community

An event of siege, terror and killing carried out by Haron Monis in the heart of Sydney business district has been an eye-opener for the Islamic Community in Australia. Haron was shot down before he killed two innocent people, a lawyer and a manager ... More>>

Jonathan Cook: US Feels The Heat On Palestine Vote At UN

The floodgates have begun to open across Europe on recognition of Palestinian statehood. On 12 December the Portuguese parliament became the latest European legislature to call on its government to back statehood, joining Sweden, Britain, Ireland, France ... More>>

ALSO:


Fightback: MANA Movement Regroups, Call For Mana Wahine Policy

In the wake of this years’ electoral defeat, the MANA Movement is regrouping. On November 29th, Fightback members attended a Members’ Hui in Tāmaki/Auckland, with around 70 attending from around the country. More>>

Ramzy Baroud: The Mockingjay Of Palestine: “If We Burn, You Burn With Us”

Raed Mu’anis was my best friend. The small scar on top of his left eyebrow was my doing at the age of five. I urged him to quit hanging on a rope where my mother was drying our laundry. He wouldn’t listen, so I threw a rock at him. More>>

ALSO:

Don Franks: Future Of Work Commission: Labour's Shrewd Move

Lunging boldly towards John Key, shouting 'Cut the crap!' - Andrew Little was great, wasn't he? Labour's new leader spoke for many people fed up with Key's flippant arrogant deceit. Andrew Little nailing the Prime minister on lying about contacting a rightwing ... More>>

Asia-Pacific Journal: MSG Headache, West Papuan Heartache? Indonesia’s Melanesian Foray

Asia and the Pacific--these two geographic, political and cultural regions encompass entire life-worlds, cosmologies and cultures. Yet Indonesia’s recent enthusiastic outreach to Melanesia indicates an attempt to bridge both the constructed and actual ... More>>

Valerie Morse: The Security State: We Should Not Be Surprised, But We Should Be Worried

On the very day that the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security released her report into the actions of people the Prime Minister’s office in leaking classified Security Intelligence Service (NZSIS) documents to right-wing smearmonger Cameron ... More>>

Ramzy Baroud: PFLP Soul-Searching: Rise And Fall Of Palestine’s Socialists

When news reports alleged that the two cousins behind the Jerusalem synagogue attack on 18 November were affiliated with the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a level of confusion reigned. Why the PFLP? Why now? More>>

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Top Scoops
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news