National Party with lead but Maori Party the key on Election eve
Finding No. 4334 - This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 1,038 electors from October 20 – November 2, 2008.: November 07, 2008
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On the eve of the 2008 Election the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 42% (down 1%), a 7.5% lead over the Labour Party at 34.5% (up 2.5%).
The MMP system used to elect Parliament means the next Government is likely to be a Coalition led by the National Party with support from ACT NZ, United Future and perhaps the Maori Party. The alternative is a Labour Party led Coalition with support from the Greens, NZ First and the Maori Party.
Support for the Greens 10% (down 1.5%) is near its record high of 11.5%, while support for NZ First is 4.5% (unchanged), ACT NZ 4% (up 0.5%), the Maori Party 2.5% (unchanged), United Future 1% (up 0.5%) and Others and Independents 1.5% (down 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (98.3 points, up 1.3 points) has risen slightly after the RBNZ cut interest rates by 1% to 6.5%.
Gary Morgan says:
“The New Zealand Election is almost here and electors go to the polls tomorrow to elect a new Government. In recent weeks the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll has shown a ‘tightening in the race’ between the Governing Labour Party led by Helen Clark and Opposition Leader John Key’s National Party.
“Despite this, the National Party is still favoured to lead a Coalition Government with support from minor parties ACT NZ, United Future and perhaps the Maori Party.
“The recent rises in support for the Labour Party though have given real hope to the Clark Government that it could yet form a Coalition Government with the support of the Greens, Progressive Party and the Maori Party.
“The Maori Party have been heavily courted by both major parties but are yet to declare which of the major parties they would support to form a Government. In the event of a hung Parliament in which they hold the balance of power, the Maori Party are potential ‘kingmakers.’
Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 1,038 electors from October 20 — November 2, 2008.