Book Reviews | Gordon Campbell | News Flashes | Scoop Features | Scoop Video | Strange & Bizarre | Search

 


National’s Worst Case Scenario At Stage One?

A month out from the general election and ipredict traders are still forecasting National’s vote to slip below current polling levels and there is potential for it to fall further.

The last Roy Morgan Poll released on August 20 had National bumping up slightly from the last poll by two percentage points to 48% and support for the Labour Party was 27.5% (down 2.5 points). Only the last few days of the poll covered the release of Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics.

National is adamant that the vast majority of voters will not be swayed by the storm which has dominated political coverage in the last week. However at the very least it has given new heart to its opponents they can chip away at National’s lead to open up the possibility of forming a Government.

The latest Herald poll had National down 4.1 points, but still at 50%. However Labour was down 1.3 points to 25.2% with the Greens up 3.8 points to 13.7%. This was taken as the fallout from “Dirty Politics” unravelled.

Traders on ipredict have been forecasting for some time that the result on election day would be different from current polls.

There is no contradiction in this, polls and ipredict ask different questions and answer them in different ways. Polls are a slice in time put together in such a way as to reach an accurate as possible picture of the current state of play. Traders on ipredict are trying to forecast the outcome of a future event usually for financial gain.

In the last week ipredict traders have been lowering their predictions on National performing better than the 47% vote share gained in 2011. Crucially they have been predicting National will fall below 45% at which points it seems unlikely that National will be able to form a Government without NZ First, unless ACT, United Future and the Maori Party perform very well in the coming weeks.

Months before the book's release, the stock “What share of the party vote will the National Party win at the next General Election?” had been bumping around the 44% to 45% mark. Since the book’s release it has been moving more erratically presumably as traders evaluate National’s reaction and how voters in turn may adjust though it seems be settling into a 42% to 44% region.

Since August 13 the probability of the stock “There will be a National Prime Minister after the 2014 General Election” has trended down from around an 80% probability to around 65%. There has been heavy trading with fluctuations.

Likewise the stock “What share of the party vote will the Labour Party win at the next General Election?” had settled around 27% of the vote before the book’s release and then moved upwards (with large swings) before settling around the 30% mark.

One month out from the last election ipredict had the National vote share at 45% to 46% (It achieved 47%), Labour at 29% to 30% (Labour fell to 27%) and the Greens at 10% to 11% (receiving 11%). Ipredict constantly under picked NZ First in 2011 though interestingly Roy Morgan’s last poll before the 2011 was very close and the latest poll now has NZ First at 6.5%. Traders at ipredict currently have NZ First at 5.7%.

Roy Morgan’s Michelle Levine has put forward the possibility National voters turned off by the “Dirty Politics” affair may well slip to NZ First.

Currently the worst case scenario set out for National in “National – The Worst and Best Case Scenarios” seems to be at its first stage.

However the best case scenario for Labour laid out in “Labour – Worst Case and Best Case Scenarios” still seems some way off.

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
 
 
Top Scoops Headlines

 

New HiveMind Project: What Should We Do About Sugar?

While most people agree that increased sugar consumption is a major cause of too many New Zealanders being overweight and obese, what we should do about this remains a matter of debate and argument. More>>

ALSO:


Gordon Campbell: On Vladimir Putin’s Wonderful, Fabulous, Very Good Year

Safe to say that no-one, but no-one has had a better 2016 than Vladimir Putin. What an annus mirabilis it has been for him. Somehow, Russia got away with directly interfering in the US election process, such that a friendly oligarch is about to take up residence in the White House, rather than a genuine rival. More>>

ALSO:


Gordon Campbell: On The Media Normalisation Of Trump

We all supposedly agree that the media is going to hell in a tabloid handbasket, but the trends to the contrary can be a bit harder to spot. In his 1970s book The Right Stuff, Tom Wolfe had mocked the way the media instinctively acts as what he called The Victorian Gentleman. More>>

ALSO:

Binoy Kampmark: The Reality Of Fake News

Fake news as reality; the inability to navigate the waters in which it swims; a weakness in succumbing to material best treated with a huge pinch of salt. That, we are told, is the new condition of the global information environment. More>>

Alastair Thompson: Helen Kelly And The Compassionless People
I wasn't a close friend of Helen Kelly's. But her passing has moved me to tears more than once in the past two weeks. I feel honoured to be one of the many who worked with her and was helped by her. More>>

Postnatal Depression: 'The Thief That Steals Motherhood' - Alison McCulloch

Post-natal depression is a sly and cruel illness, described by one expert as ‘the thief that steals motherhood’, it creeps up on its victims, hiding behind the stress and exhaustion of being a new parent, catching many women unaware and unprepared. More>>

ALSO:

Gordon Campbell: On News From The US Election Eve

Here’s a somewhat scary headline from October 30 on Nate Silver’s 538 site, which summed up the statistical factors in play at that point: “The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does” More>>

ALSO:

Get More From Scoop

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Top Scoops
Search Scoop  
 
 
Powered by Vodafone
NZ independent news