Debate on Digipoll data - Transcript
TRANSCRIPT
Debate on
Digipoll data
2nd of October, 2011
Scotty Morrison
Welcome to this one hour special.
With the general election just 8 weeks away we’ve asked
Maori voters which parties and politicians are winning their
support.
We approached a thousand voters in the four
weeks leading up to September 20th. 655 were registered
on the Maori roll.
To discuss the results we have a
panel of politicians and experts and Shane Taurima to keep
them all in line.
Shane Taurima
Kia Ora,
joining us is Maori Party co-leader Tariana Turia, Labour MP
Shane Jones and Mana Party leader Hone Harawira. And
crunching the numbers we have political scientists Rawiri
Taonui, Maria Bargh and commentator Willie Jackson. Thank
you all for coming in. Let’s start with the big
question, the Party vote.
Scotty
We asked if
an election was held today which Party would you vote for.
Labour come out in front on 38 percent, Maori Party
gained 22 percent, National on 16, ahead of Mana on 8.5,
Greens made 6.5 and NZ First 5%.
Shane
Tariana
Turia let’s start with you. A drop by 14 points since our
last Digipoll back in January but 16 points since the 2008
election. Are you surprised, are you disappointed?
Tariana
I’m not surprised because the Party vote
has never been something that the Maori Party have worked
hard to get though this time we clearly would’ve liked to
have done better because this time we are focusing on the
Party vote but we’ve always focused mainly on the
electorate vote.
Shane
There has to be some
level of disappointment because you’ve had a tough year.
You’ve lost an MP, some Party members, some arguments
around the cabinet table. And our poll today says you’ve
lost some Party vote support
Tariana
Well
we’ve got around 7 weeks to the election, that clearly
indicates to me that we’ve got to get out there and
prepare a message to our people that give them confidence in
the Maori Party to give the Maori Party their vote.
Shane
Are you surprised that half of the support has
gone to the Mana Party?
Tariana
No, I think it
was always going to be inevitable that there would be votes
lost to the Mana Party.
Shane
Hone Harawira let
me ask you about Maori Party support. Are you surprised that
they’ve lost some support?
Hone
No, I think
Tari’s explained it quite well. I think that Maoridom
were disappointed in the difference of opinion between
myself and the rest of them and they will be particularly
disappointed to find out how much it cost the Maori Party.
I think they’re disappointed in the relationship between
the Maori Party and ACT now that Don Brash has come back in.
Maoridom would have expected the Maori Party to say that’s
it. We will not work with this guy and we do not like his
anti worker, anti beneficiary anti Maori legislation.
Shane
The government responsible for the so called
anti beneficiary anti worker has doubled the support that
the Mana Party has according to our poll. Are you surprised
at that? National are on 16%, Mana on 8%.
Hone
If Mana’s registering at 8% after we’ve only been
going for a couple of months and we haven’t even announced
who all our candidates are, I think we’re doing
exceedingly well right now. The nomination dates don’t
close for some time yet, by the time we get our full list up
and we’re ready to roll I think you will see that increase
hugely.
Shane
So will you be disappointed if
you don’t close that gap or exceed the Party vote with
National?
Hone
Look, I couldn’t give two
stuffs about National, when you’re focussing on the people
at the bottom end of the economics spectrum which is where
Mana wants to be Maori, Pacifica and non Maori as well. We
really don’t care what National’s support base is,
we’re after those who are in desperate need in this
country.
Shane T
Shane Jones you must be happy
because Labour has held their support and they’re slightly
up on the last poll.
Shane Jones
Well Labour
in Terms with its relationship with Maoridom has morphed
increasingly into a Party vote entity. Our people worked out
pretty quickly, as Kelvin & Hone’s foray at the
bi-election showed, you could actually get 2 for the price
of 1. And people shouldn’t underestimate those Maori that
do vote, of course not enough vote, that they’re pretty
sophisticated. That they can get a social equity Party and
they’ve got a choice into the quality of personality they
like in their electorate.
Shane
But is that
just what Labour wants? Do they just want the Party vote or
do their candidates want that electorate vote as well?
Shane J
We’re professional politicians, we have
great egos. You put yourself up, of course you want to be
voted in but at the end of the day MMP is not first past the
post, you put your professional credentials forward as an
individual and then you go out there and promote your
policies. We will be going for both votes because we think
that’s the best way to stop John Key forming a government
with the Maori Party but at the same time we realise that
Maori voters have quickly worked out that under MMP you’ve
got choices.
Shane
Interestingly though Labour
hasn’t picked up any support that has been lost from the
Maori Party.
Shane J
Helen Clark showed us in
2002 you can lose within 2-3 weeks 10% of your support. In
1996 when she went from 18.5% up to 29.5% so in 2-3 weeks
things can rapidly change. So thank you for the Digipoll
results but for the rest of us pros we just learn to live
with these poll results and get on with the mahi.
Shane
Ok lets have a look at the electorate vote and
remember at the time of the poll NOT all parties had
announced their candidates.
Scotty
We asked
which Party would your chosen electorate candidate be likely
to come from. This time Maori Party took the lead at 37.5,
Labour just behind at 35, with the other parties trailing
well behind
Shane
Tariana let’s begin with
you, it’s neck and neck with Labour but you’ve dropped 6
points since the poll in January. Why is that?
Tariana
I think it’s the perception that’s been
created around the Maori Party about what we’re doing, how
we’re doing it and our relationship with the National
Party. I just want to clarify one thing; we don’t have
and never have had a relationship with ACT. Our coalition
arrangement is with the National Party not with ACT. I
think there have been particular perceptions created around
our relationship with National which of course means that
our people who have had a long history with Labour despite
the fact that Labour has never produced for them, they are
starting to think that the best bet for their buck is with
the Labour Party.
Shane
Hone, do the results
show that it’s a two horse race between Labour and the
Maori Party.
Hone
That’s difficult because
we haven’t even announced all of our candidates by the
time this poll came out. If you’d put names in for Te Tai
Tokerau you’d see very clearly that Hone Harawira is
clearly ahead of Kelvin Davis and the other guy.
Shane
Now when we break down the electorate vote
into individual electorates the sample size reduces which
means the results really only indicate trends but there were
some pretty interesting trends.
Scotty
In Te
Tai Tokerau – it was Labour in front on 30 percent, Mana
just behind on 28.6% and Maori at 22%
Shane
Now Hone I know you have just said that if we had have
named the candidates and we didn’t but the poll does show
that Labour could come through the middle and take the seat.
Hone
Yes, that shows that I’m not working as
hard as I should be in the Tai Tokerau, it means there’s a
lot more work I have to do at home, it means the issues on a
national issue have to be put on the shelf and I go back
home and do the work I’m noted for around the kura, around
the work trusts, around the beneficiaries.
Shane
Some commentators have said that you’ve over stretched
yourself and you’ve lost touch almost with the electorate.
Hone
Sure, that’s a criticism I accept,
it’s something I have to pick up my game on.
Shane
Will you be staying in the electorate?
Tariana - Are you surprised with that result? Some
commentators are saying that Mana and Maori will eat
themselves and Labour will come through the middle.
Tariana
I never see the Maori voters as only being
split between man and the Maori Party. The fact is that the
Maori vote is quite volatile and I believe that for the
first time in a very very long time our people are starting
to think more politically about where their alliances lay
and I think that’s exciting cos we haven’t actually seen
that a lot in the past. When our people voted for Labour
they voted with their feet, they didn’t vote by thinking
about what was important to them or even what Labour had
ever done for them and now the perception has changed
considerably and I’m pleased about it.
Shane
Would you contemplate doing a deal with either Labour or
Mana to avoid splitting that vote?
Tariana
No
because the Maori Party is the only Maori Party in
parliament. We are the only Party that clearly is there to
only represent the interests of our people regardless of
where they sit on the economic scale. So no we wouldn’t.
Shane
Can I put the same question to you Shane
Jones. Could Labour contemplate doing a deal with either
Mana or Maori Party to avoid splitting that vote?
Shane
The first thing I need to say to what Tari has
very lucidly outlined is that they are an appendage whether
we like it or not of the National Party, that’s the first
thing. And they’ve done what they think is the best thing
in the long Term interests in the Maori Party, she may be
proved right. On other thing I’ll say, it’s open
slather. Not enough Maori vote but those who do vote have
sussed out that I don’t’ have to follow what happened in
Winston’s time, it’s an open game which is a little
un-nerving.
Shane
And we do have some results;
let’s have a look at the seat you’re contesting, Tamaki
Makaurau. As you can see it looks like Dr Sharples will
keep his seat.
Shane J
Well a bit like Hone
we’ve got to focus more on where people are. There’s I
think 50% of the population in the Tamaki seat of Maori
descent are under the age of 23 that’s the first thing.
The responses I get on the ground are a lot stronger than
that, Pita has a very strong personality but I’m not
without a personality myself but we’ve got to be always
doing 2 things , promoting credentials that we are an
alternative government and at the same time not getting into
the triviality of politics, promoting ourselves personally.
Shane
How do you gain support when you’re
out there criticising the Waka Maori that’s being promoted
as quite a great kaupapa for rugby world cup?
Shane J
What’s the population of Ngati Whatua o
Orakei? The size of the Ngati Whatua population is small
when you look at the broad issues; I’m there for all the
broad concerns of Maoridom.
Shane
So you’re
snubbing Ngati Whatua
Shane J
When 2 million
dollars was tossed out, nothing else happened for any other
community of that nature in Tamaki Makaurau or anywhere else
in Maoridom, it’s a legitimate issue to highlight because
it was a political gift given to Pita.
Shane
It’s your approach. You are marginalising the voters
here in Tamaki Makaurau. We’ve been down and seen the waka
for ourselves and it looks great.
Shane J
I
think I’m attacking a lot of interest in the issues that I
raise, I’ve moved on from the tapa waka, it was an issue
that I highlighted, in created quite a bit of excitement, it
annoyed a few people, that’s Politics.
Shane
Let’s move on to the Waiariki Seat. Hone, you have
just confirmed Annette Sykes so we’re going to take a look
now at the results and she’s got a lot of ground to pick
up and I know you’ve just announced it but she’s 40
percentage points behind Te Ururoa Flavell
Hone
We do but I was heartened. I’ve just come from a
public meeting in Tauranga and there was 120 people there to
support Annette. I’m picking up that sort of ground swell
support for Annette from Te Whanau-a-Apanui down to Kawerau,
even in Murupara where the president of the Maori Party is
from, we had a meeting yesterday afternoon and we had 50
people there so the ground swell is certainly there for her
and they’re really keen on the sort of the person she is,
she’s strong, she’s vibrant, she’s not the sort of
person who just goes along. She’s a fighter.
Shane
I want to look at the Tai Tonga result because
Tariana Turia, commentators are saying that that seat is
looking quite vulnerable for the Maori Party and I know
Rahui Katene has just launched her campaign so what’s your
reaction to that result?
Tariana
Commentators
are saying that but in actual fact what you’ve got is a
really hard working MP. For the first time ever Te Tai Tonga
has an MP who has gone right throughout Te Tai Tonga working
with her people, she did great work in Christchurch during
that period of time. But the other thing is we cannot
continue to trade on family names, it doesn’t work anymore
and in fact if we think back to where we lost that so the
whole notion that because he’s a Tirikatene that’s going
to pull all the voters back to a Labour vote, it will not
happen.
Shane
Willie Jackson, let’s first of
all concentrate on the electorate vote.
Willy
Jackson
I think that you have clearly seen that the
door’s been opened up a little bit to Labour. If you look
at Southern Maori for instance you’re right Rahui
Katene’s done a lot of work on the ground for some unknown
reason Tirikatene’s ahead by default. If you look at
Tariana Turia’s seat for goodness sake are you trying to
tell me the minister’s only ahead by 8% of the Labour
candidate nobody’s ever heard of? 48% v 40%, another sign
that the door’s been open to Labour, coming to Hone’s
seat 2% apparently the Labour candidate’s ahead of Hone,
doesn’t make sense.
Shane
Can I ask you
about splitting the vote? That’s why you chose not to
stand for Mana in Tamaki Makaurau.
Willie
It
was one of the reasons, but never mind me; in 2008 the Maori
Party was looking at 7 seats.
Shane
Rawiri it
does seem like the Tai Tokerau result. Potentially Labour
could come through the middle.
Rawiri
I agree
with Tariana, that there’s a lot of volatility in this
poll and I suspect there’s going to be quite a lot of
change as we move closer to the election. I want to correct
one thing. The Maori Party is down by 20% on the last poll
in Terms of the Party vote, it’s also down 15 points on
the electorate vote since 2008, that’s a key thing to
remember and Labour is also losing Party votes, they’re
down by 13 or so since 2008. That Tells us that Labour and
Maori Party are bleeding some votes to the Mana Party but
the Maori Party shouldn’t be too worried because they had
a large buffer in Terms of their majority in 2008. Labour is
steady in 3 seats up in 2 and down in 2 and that shows us
that volatility. Now what I think it means is that Maori
voters have given up on the idea of the Party sweeping all 7
seats
Shane
Thanks
Let’s move onto what
you think of the Maori Party’s performance. Scotty
Scotty
We asked do you believe the Maori Party has
represented Maori well. Just over half said yes. Next we
asked do you support the Maori Party’s decision to vote
for the marine and coastal area bill again more than half
said yes. We asked if you accept compromise was worthwhile
to ensure they had a seat at the cabinet table there was a
resounding yes and when it came to claims that the Party
lacked energy and its candidates were too old, the majority
disagreed.
Shane
Hone are you surprised with
those results?
Hone
Not particularly surprised
about the issue about the marine and coastal bill because a
lot of people I’ve talked to about it are really over it,
they think we should move on from it, to the reality 71 of
72 maori organisations was opposed to it, the majority of
individual maori submitters opposed it , maori political
commentators completely opposed it.
Shane
It’s the voters at the end of the day…
Hone
Sure and I accept the fact that Maoridom has
gotten a bit over it but the decision of the United Nations
to allow the NZ Government to take that little bit of
foreshore and seabed that the maori Party gave back and
allowed all statutory authority to stay with the crown has
now gone from there all the way to the edge of the
continental shelf so it’s been a massive loss that Maori
have had to contemplate.
Shane
But don’t
these results show that actually debunk a lot of the
criticism that you level at the Maori Party, including
sitting around the cabinet table, including the marine and
coastal legislation, including representing Maori well.
Hone
If you were to ask Maoridom right now, do you
think it was a good idea for the Maori Party to vote for the
increase in GST, 99% would say no, was it a good idea for
the maori Party to stay in coalition with national or that
passing anti worker legislation, they’d say no, anti
beneficiary legislation they would say no, anti maori
legislation, they would say no, Maori would be horrified.
The realities are the Maoridom should not support a Party
that cling so tenaciously to National. And National have
made it quite clear that they are going to go into coalition
with ACT and ACT is going to be run by Don Brash.
Shane
Tariana, you’re smiling and that’s because
this shows that your message is getting through.
Tariana
I think that our people have got passed this
whole thing of where you pick out those things that it suits
you to. You look at the whole issue around GST, Hone was
with us at the point and he knows as well as I do that
National had originally said it would not be touching GST.
When we signed up to the coalition that’s what they told
us. After we’re getting through some period of time and
they’re needing more tax money, they’ve given more back
to those who are more wealthy; they then decided to attack
GST. We were left in a very difficult position … Hone
knows that, so to go out there to people and say we let
them. The biggest issue for our people has been the rise in
commodity prices so the cost of being able to live every day
and buy their kai are the things that are impacting more
considerably because believe it or not National did put in a
buffer to raise the incomes of those families, the 2%, so it
is the commodity prices that are affecting our people
Shane
Bread and butter issues, Shane - Labour has
been quite critical of the Maori Party.
Shane J
The issues that you’ve highlighted here are the issues
of cultural ideology and they’re yesterday’s issues.
The seabed and foreshore has enjoyed it’s? I think
Hone’s partially right, I’ll never agree with him fully;
the issues at the end of the day that will motivate voters
really are the daily grind that Tari has referred to. And
I’ve never seen a Digipoll that focuses on the sheer
difficulty of a working class Maori family earning between
15K and 25K. Maori media have this love affair with delving
into cultural ideology and let me Tell you that issue has
come and gone. We are consistently pushing issues to do
with cost of living, the quality of life, the rise in
commodity prices, it’s a curse, we earn a lot as an
agricultural nation and then as new Zealander’s we’re
blighted by the need to pay those international prices so
come back to the issues that most of us talk about. When
we’re on a marae we talk about the icons of cultural
ideology and your programme …
Tariana
In
Terms of cultural ideology in actual fact what the Maori
Party are saying is that culture counts, whether its’
education, health, it doesn’t matter where it is, if we
don’t see our cultures in everything that we do, that’s
why we’re losing out, whanau ora is about the restoration
of cultural ideology, to make us the independent people that
we once were, this whole idea that we should be out there
Telling our people we’re going to give you breakfast,
lunch and we’re going to do all these things for you,
those days are up, we need to restore our self belief that
we can do things for ourselves, that’s what’s important
for our future.
Shane
So how did the Labour
Party fare. Here’s what we asked about them.
Scotty
We asked if you thought the traditional Maori
voter support for Labour had dropped and 71 percent said
yes. We then asked if you thought Shane Jones should take
over as leader of the Party and it was a much closer
verdict. 46.7 % said yes, 31 % said no and 22% didn’t
know.
Shane
Shane Jones, do you like that
question?
Shane J
I’m reminded of what they
used to say about J.T and Winston so every time you talk
about leadership ambitions you can rest assured there’s a
chain saw behind you cutting you as you speak, so I’ll
just Taihoa.
Shane
OK Tariana Turia, outgoing
MP Miti Ririnui said this week that Phil Goff couldn’t
relate to Maori and our polls have shown that and Labour
needed a new leader.
Tariana
First of all I
think they need a remarkable leader that can bind them
together in their caucus because that is not happening so
they need to consider that. Whether it should be before the
election or preparing for the next election and going for
the long Term I think that would be their best bet, 7 weeks
out from an election not a good idea to replace the leader,
it’s happened in the past with them, they had Palmer, then
Moore, then Helen in a short space of time. It’s not a
good time for them to be imploding so they do need a
remarkable leader (Shane – is that Shane Jones?) I think
Shane Jones would make a remarkable leader, he’s
intelligent, he’s got all the ability that a Labour caucus
would need, he’d do far better if he was in a maori Party
(Shane – is that an open invitation … much laughter all
round)
Shane J
Thank you Tari but I’m in my
waka and it’s called Te Roopu Labour.
Shane
Hone, could you work in a Labour Party led by Shane
Jones?
Hone
First of all in respect of Shane,
I think he’s the most capable politician there in both
Maori and in English, sadly I don’t think that they will
want to make him the leader because I know a lot of the gays
don’t like him, the women are pissed off with him because
of the incident that he got involved with not so long ago
and also because I suspect that Labour is still inherently
racist and don’t particularly want to have a maori as a
leader, however when the day comes, in about 2097, I’d be
more than happy to work alongside him.
Shane
Now i’m going to stay with just our analysts for our
final questions on what you thought of our politicians
Scotty
We asked do you believe Hone Harawira can
effectively lead the Mana Party.
More than half said
yes. We then asked which Maori MP best represents the view
of Maori and Pita Sharples topped the poll at 22% followed
by Tariana Turia with nearly 20% and Hone Harawira on 11.
The rest all came in under 4%. And as for who your preferred
Prime Minster was – no contest really, John Key 33% with
the next contender Pita Sharples way back on 7 %
Shane
Shane Jones, Maria Bargh doesn’t think that
you’re going to be the next leader but in terms of Tamaki
Makaurau obviously there’s a bit battle there for you.
Shane J
Yes, let’s be fair to Papa Pita, he
has the advantage of incumbency and he’s got a wide reach.
I know he’s fallen out considerably with some of the Mana
supporters but putting that aside it was never going to be
an easy task but I genuinely believe once these guys come
seriously into the race if we can get that vote up to 53%
turnout, 60, 70%, then Labour will win that seat. It’s
going to come down partly to my credentials but also to the
actual turn out on the day.
Shane
Hone, you
have to get out there in your electorate. It’s going to be
quite a juggling balance for you in your leadership role and
your constituency role
Hone
I’m done most of
the national stuff and just picking up on a comment that
Rawiri made I will now be focussing on 2 possibly 3 seats.
I’ll be putting all my energy into Tai Tokerau clearly
(you know 5 out of 7) and the other two I’ll be
concentrating on, one will be Waiariki and the other one
will be determined
Shane
Tariana, let’s give
you the last word, Party vote support, bit of a drop there
but overall quite an endorsement for you and Pita Sharples
and for the Party
Tariana
I’m really pleased
because we’ve worked really hard and the kind of resources
that have got back into our communities from us agreeing to
work with whoever the government is let’s be clear about
that, 620 million dollars is nothing to scoff at, something
like 2.6 million dollars for every sitting day. I think
we’ve done a really great job considering that we’ve
been in a time of restraint but we’ve done the very best
that we can and I believe that our people understand that.
Shane
Is the election strategy that it looks
as if National is going to be the next government and
we’re going to be around that table?
Tariana
The strategy is always to try and be at the cabinet
table. I think, there were things that were said before
about when Labour was polling quite low and were able to
lift their vote, probably about 11%, you know you can never
tell until you’re close to the election where people are
going to put their vote
Shane
If you want to
check out our poll results again we’ll have them up on our
web site soon. It’s been a fascinating discussion and
thanks to our guests, Tariana Turia, Shane Jones, and Hone
Harawira and our commentators Rawiri Taonui, Maria Bargh and
Willie Jackson.