WikiLeak: Cook Islands Preliminary Election Results - 09/06

September 28, 2006 Cook Islands: Preliminary election results

date:2006-09-28T03:00:00 source:Embassy Wellington origin:06WELLINGTON762 destination:VZCZCXRO2553 RR RUEHPB DE RUEHWL #0762 2710300 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 280300Z SEP 06 FM AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3316 INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 4554 RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 0601 RUEHSV/AMEMBASSY SUVA 0516 RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI classification:CONFIDENTIAL reference:06WELLINGTON575 ?C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000762

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/ANP PACOM FOR JO1E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27... ?C O N F I D E N T I A L WELLINGTON 000762

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/ANP PACOM FOR JO1E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CW, NZ, XV SUBJECT: COOK ISLANDS: PRELIMINARY ELECTION RESULTS

REF: A. WELLINGTON 575

B. WELLINGTON 221

(U) Classified By: Charge D'Affaires David J. Keegan, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

1. (C) Summary: On Tuesday, September 26, the Cooks Islands held general elections. Preliminary results show the Democratic Party (Demos), led by PM Jim Marurai, ahead of the Cook Islands Party (CIP), 14 seats to 10 in the 24-seat Parliament. New Zealand's High Commission in Rarotonga believes the most likely outcome will be a Demos victory and a continuation of government largely similar to its pre-election form. There is no substantive difference between the policy platforms of the Demos and CIP. Both declare they oppose the practice of encouraging new members of parliament to "party-hop" as each tries to form the next government, even though they are likely to engage in it. End summary.

2. (C) While final results of the September 24 Cook Islands general election are not due until Monday, October 2, the Demos lead the CIP 14 seats to 10 in the 24-seat parliament. The elections follow the July 24 dissolution of Parliament as a result of a pending vote of no confidence motion put forward by the CIP (ref A). Five races remain close, with separations of 10 votes or less: CIP leads in three races and the Demos in two. Nearly 10,000 persons voted in the general election, and between 400 and 500 absentee votes remain to be counted. Opposition leader Henry Puna is in one of the close races, down eight votes with 26 absentee ballots uncounted. (FYI: Almost all absentee ballots are cast by voters who remain inside the Cooks but temporarily reside outside their electorates. The more than 50,000 Cook Islanders resident in other countries are, with few exceptions, not allowed to vote. End FYI.)

3. (U) The only candidate confirmed as a victor is Wilkie Rasmussen (CIP), who ran unopposed in his Outer Island electorate of Penrhyn. Though from the opposition party, Rasmussen has been part of the Demos-dominated coalition government as Foreign Minister. He also held the marine resources portfolio. Such cross-fertilization has been commonplace in Cook Islands politics, especially since 1999. Amid increasing public discontent over loose party loyalties, both parties featured anti-party-hopping legislation in their respective election platforms.

4. (U) CIP Deputy leader Tupou Faireka and Finance spokesperson Vaine Wichman appear likely to lose. Cook Islands political commentators are reading these preliminary results as a public backlash over CIP attempts to wrest control of the house in the lead up to the snap election. The media also speculates that former PM Dr. Robert Woonton was sacked as High Commissioner to New Zealand in March by PM Jim Marurai for plotting to topple the government after he was accused of funneling significant financial support to the CIP during the election. In March, Wooton was sacked as High Commissioner to New Zealand by PM Jim Marurai for allegedly plotting to topple the government (ref B).

5. (SBU) Once election results are formally announced, defeated candidates have a week to file petitions to contest the results, which means that it will be at least mid-October before voters are certain who will be in the new parliament. It's also possible that both parties will be encouraging newly elected members of parliament to switch parties as the Government is being formed. Although both parties have pledged to eliminate party-hopping, there is still no law preventing the practice and many practical incentives for all involved to continue it.

Keegan

ENDS