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Iran: Consequences of a forced regime change

Consequences of a forced regime change in Iran

By Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar

“Give me the money that has been spent in war and I will clothe every man, woman, and child in an attire of which kings and queens will be proud. I will build a schoolhouse in every valley over the whole earth. I will crown every hillside with a place of worship consecrated to peace.” (Charles Sumner)

In each war there are always winners and losers. The winners are those who make money and gather more power to themselves while all the others are the losers. It doesn’t matter if one has been on this side or that side; chances are that in the end the majority end up losing far more than they thought they will gain. Ask any parent that has lost a child in a war if he or she can in any way be compensated for that loss and you’ll have the answer.

One can expect the push for war from those who will gain from it, but not from those who lose. But the sad fact is that those who gain from war use all the communication means at their disposal to persuade the losers to support and even participate in the war. The American people were thus persuaded to participate in the war against Iraq. Those who were against it were labelled as unpatriotic fools who were working against their country’s interests.

But it wasn’t only the foreigners that wanted a war in Iraq. Some Iraqi exiles played an important role in this as well. They gave the Neocons the excuse to claim that they were not invading Iraq only to secure America, but also to “FREE” the Iraqi people. People such as Chalabi and Iyad Allawi, supported and funded by CIA and others, gave credence to the allegations against Iraq. Did these people do it on purpose or were they fooled? Did they sit and consider the consequences for the rest of the Iraqis, or were they thinking only of what was in it for them?

As the Neocons and their allies continue to push for a devastating war against Iran, they are joined by some Iranian exiles who profess that they cannot wait a minute longer for the war to start. They are claiming, as their Iraqi counterparts did, that they are supporting the Neocons because they want to free the long suppressed Iranian People. Here I am not going to question their motives, but their wisdom. Have these people considered the consequences of such an action? Do they know what it means to create chaos in Iran and what the consequences will be for Iranians and Iran? In case they don’t know, I would like to provide them with some information.

We all have heard of the Neocons’ plan for a new Middle East but had never seen a map of it until it was published in the Armed Forces Journal in June 2006, which as can be expected was greeted by protests from Turkey and other countries. The map resurfaced again in September 15, 2006 when it was presented at the NATO’s Defence College in Rome [ ].

Click for big version

This map showed how future Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Afghanistan would look like. With regards to Iran, one can see that in the south west, the oilfields are taken out and merged with oil rich regions of Iraq to make a country called “Arab Shia State”. In the north, parts of Iran is merged with the Iraqi and Turkish Kurdish area to create the “Free Kurdistan”. The Iranian Azerbaijan is merged with Azerbaijan. In the west the Sistan and Baluchistan is merged with the Pakistani Baluchistan to create the “Free Baluchistan”. On the other hand Kuwait is kept in place, while Saudi Arabia is divided into its oil and non oil regions. This was not a political map, but an “oil” map. Those places that had oil or gas were put into mini-states, vulnerable and needing protection; the protection that US and its allies could then provide.

Now, if you look at the events as they are unfolding, at least as far as Iran is concerned, you’ll see how this fictional map is slowly being turned into reality. To start with Israel has admitted that it is shipping weapons and helping Iranian Kurdish rebels to fight the central government. On August 27, Avigdor Lieberman said Israel is extending aid to those opposition organizations which are proving effective. He was the first member of the Israeli government to expose the clandestine war against Iran [2].

The Kurdish group is not the only one enjoying Israeli or Western help. We have the Azeri group in the north and Ahwazi group in the south. We also have the Baluchi group in the south east enjoying funding and support from the UK, US, Israel, etc.

As you are reading this article, the roots of major internal conflicts are being sown. No one can guess how many people are going to die because of this, but one thing is certain; none of those that are going to suffer are in LA or New York or London. They are all in Iran.

Even if we dismiss these as only conspiracy theories, we cannot dismiss the fact that an invasion or occupation of a country as populous and as vast as Iran is going to be extremely difficult and bloody.

One must not forget that if only 10% of over one million Basiij and the revolutionary guards decide to mount a guerrilla war against an occupying army or a puppet regime, it will take many many years to bring stability to the country. We will see many Abou Gharibs and many more atrocities committed in the name of Democracy and Freedom.

Who would like to see foreign boots kicking down doors in the middle of the night? Who would like to see women and children crying in terror as their houses are searched and their men-folk blindfolded, manhandled and taken to prisons? Who would like to see picture of rapes of his or her fellow citizens by foreign troops? Please stand-up and be counted. Don’t hide behind slogans.

Before shouting slogans and jumping on the Neocon’s bandwagon, one should consider all the consequences. Some claim that those who are against war with Iran are in the pay of the Iranian government or are its apologists. They are mistaken. No one but a fool will support a “preventive” or an expansionist war. After seeing Iraq and Afghanistan, only a fool will support more of the same. But again some may see this as an opportunity to make a quick buck. To these I have to say that no amount of money in the world is going to wash the blood of the innocent people from your hands.

Please remember that as the German proverb says: A great war leaves the country with three armies - an army of cripples, an army of mourners, and an army of thieves.

[1], “Carved-up Map of Turkey at NATO Prompts US Apology”, September 29, 2006

[2] Debka File, “Israel is aiding Iranian opposition groups, says Strategic Threats Minister Lieberman”, August 28, 2007


Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar lives in Norway. He is a management consultant and a contributing writer for many online journals. He can be contacted by e-mail

Copyright Abbas Bakhtiar, all rights reserved.

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