NZ stocks gain before central bank statement

MARKET CLOSE: NZ stocks gain before central bank statement

Jan. 28 – New Zealand stocks rose, pushing the NZX 50 Index to its fourth gain in five days amid expectations the central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low tomorrow. Infratil Ltd. led the index higher.

The NZX 50 gained 12.044, or 0.4%, to 2747.901. Within the index, 24 stocks rose, 13 fell and 13 were unchanged. Turnover was NZ$109 million, making it one of the busiest days so far this year.

Infratil rose 5.9% to NZ$1.79. The company, rated a ‘buy’ by three of five analysts who follow Infratil, may lift annual revenue to NZ$1.76 billion in the year ending March 31, according to Reuters data, from NZ$1.36 billion a year earlier.

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group climbed 4.8% to NZ$16.25 and Westpac banking Corp. rose 2.7% to NZ$19.10, tracking a rally in Australian lenders after a drop in consumer prices stoked speculation interest rates will be cut across the Tasman next week. The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 1.4% to 3491 in late afternoon trading, with Commonwealth Bank gaining 7.1% to A$26.51.

In New Zealand, Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard is expected to reduce the official cash rate by 100 basis points to 4% tomorrow and hint at further reductions this year as the contracting economy causes inflation to evaporate.

“The official cash rate is going to be between 3% and 3.5% this year, which is favourable for company earnings,” said Craig Brown, equities manager at ING New Zealand. Still, unemployment is set to rise, which will dampen sentiment, he said.

Globally this week, more than 70,000 jobs were eliminated as companies cut costs to cope with the economic slump. Adding to evidence of the local impact of the downturn, Fonterra Cooperative Group today slashed its forecast milk payout for farmers to NZ$5.10 a kilogram of milk solids, down 35% from last season’s record NZ$7.70.

The cut will reduce payments by about NZ$1.1 billion, giving farmers less cash to spend and likely will add to the drag on the domestic economy.

“It's clear now that the financial crisis is hitting the global economy hard and dairy has been impacted along with most other commodities," chairman Henry van der Heyden said today. “We are now taking a much more pessimistic view that we were at the end of last year.”

New Zealand Farming Systems Uruguay, which models its South American dairy farms on New Zealand’s intensive production techniques, fell 3.3% to 58 cents today. PGW Wrightson, New Zealand’s biggest rural services company, pared an earlier gain to be unchanged at NZ$1.23.

Fletcher Building dropped 4% to NZ$5.48 after Australian rival Boral Ltd. cut its 2009 profit forecast by 40%, citing weaker demand in the U.S. and Australia. Boral fell about 15% to A$3.47 on the ASX and James Hardie Industries fell 7.4% to A$3.78.

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index, a measure of house prices in the biggest U.S. metropolitan areas, fell 18.2% in November from the same month of 2007, a record drop for the eight-year-old index, according to a report yesterday.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare climbed 2.8% to NZ$3.32. Auckland International Airport rose 2.2% to NZ$1.88 and Air New Zealand gained 2.3% to 91 cents.

Pumpkin Patch led the NZX 50 lower, falling 6.4% to 88 cents.

New Zealand investor confidence slumped in the fourth quarter, luring more people to the relative safety of term deposits and bank savings, according to an ASB Bank survey yesterday. Investor confidence sank to a net -20% in the final three months of 2008 from a net 3% in the third quarter, it said.

“People are increasing their cash weightings,” ING’s Brown said. “Most valuation measures look cheap, relative to global equities, but momentum is the issue. There are still people who are nervous.”

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.3% to 8085.66 in afternoon trading. Tokyo Electron climbed 7.9%, leading tech stocks higher. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. rose 4.8% amid reports that the U.S. will set up a so-called ‘bad-bank’ to soak up toxic assets, helping alleviate the global financial crisis.

(Businesswire)

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