U.S. Should Watch Out For Danger of Mullahs in Iran

Although it might not be apparent all the time, the dictatorship in Iran is becoming more dangerous for the world peace by the day. The matter only becomes more evident and eye catching every time one of the Iranian rulers speaks out and expresses views about different world events.

It is therefore important to carefully monitor and always be aware of the comments made by the Tehran rulers.

One instance was only last week, when the Iranian regime’s supreme leader (Ayatollah Khamenei), in a speech on the occasion of Eid ul-Fitr, the Muslim holiday that marks the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, hinted that the end is near: “An important period in the history of the world is in formation.”

“Who would have thought that the agents of America and the Zionists in the region would fall one after another,” he declared. On the same occasion, the Iranian leader also predicted the demise of America and called the current sanctions in place by the Obama administration a failure in stopping Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Iran has announced that there will be no negotiations on its nuclear drive. At the same time, the United Nations nuclear agency in its most recent report indicated that there is credible evidence that Iran is working on nuclear weapons and that it already has enough enriched uranium for six nuclear warheads.

The issue looks to be rather complicated. Iran’s reluctance to accept any negotiations about its nuclear enrichment can be due to one of the two reasons, which I will try to discuss below.

The Iranian rulers’ reluctance could of course be based on Tehran’s need for a source of energy like any other country in the world. One can argue that the mullahs in Iran do not want to be dependent on any other country. At the same time, it could be said that Tehran does not see any reason why it should accept any call from other countries to stop its nuclear drive.

However, having followed the Iranian and the middle east politics for more than 20 years, I can confidently say that the above argument does not fall on facts. Iran is the world's third-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. In 2009, Iran's crude production stood at some 3.8 million bpd.

In a report published last year, the Iranian oil minister said a new oil field has been discovered in southern Iran, increasing the country's proven oil reserves to some 150.31 billion barrels.

In fact, the real grounds on which the Iranian rulers positively push away any effort of appeasement made by different European and American governments, lies somewhere else.

The real reason is that the mullahs in Iran seem to have no alternative but to proceed with their nuclear drive. They have to proceed and hope to become a nuclear power as quickly as possible in an effort to counter the events of the Arab Spring lying just on the country’s doorstep.

Following the changes in Egypt and Libya, the Iranian regime is a very likely candidate for receiving the next turmoil. They have already witnessed people coming out to the streets and tearing away Khamenei's pictures and chanting "death to dictator" only two years ago.

The mullahs then managed to clamp down on the movement by shooting into the crowd, running cars over the young people and hanging people from cranes in public.

Taking on a realistic look at the state of the Iranian regime, it becomes possible to understand the different moves made by the mullahs. Iran has concluded that it has no alternative but to move with maximum speed in two directions.

They must become a nuclear power and they must isolate and crack down on their opposition. As a result, they have declared that they do not accept any negotiations about Iran’s nuclear drive; and at the same time, they have started a heavy campaign to put pressure on their organized opposition (MEK) and preach the US Secretary of State to avoid delisting the group from the FTO list. This is despite lack of evidence and despite the fact that the "terror tag" from Tehran’s opposition has already been removed by both the United Kingdom and the European Union years ago.

It is thus important to watch out for the threats posed by the mullahs in Iran. The US does not need to get involved in Iran as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, the US administration must not help the godfather of international terrorism.

Kambiz Assai is a scholar of Iranian politics now living in exile and a former political prisoner of the religious dictatorship in Iran. He writes about Iranian current events and human rights issues extensively.

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