Top Scoops

Book Reviews | Gordon Campbell | Scoop News | Wellington Scoop | Community Scoop | Search

 

Two Months From Election, National Gambles On Judith Collins Crushing Jacinda Ardern's Charisma


Grant Duncan, Massey University

The starting gates in New Zealand’s September 19 election race are finally full. Labour’s prime minister Jacinda Ardern is the bookies’ favourite and the opposition took a long time to settle.

All the same, punters may still want to hedge their bets.

While the National Party’s internal disarray has made it look easy for Ardern, with a tough contender in new opposition leader Judith Collins the race for the prime-ministership could be more gruelling than the earlier odds suggested.

Yes, Ardern is now a globally celebrated figure. Her sheer charisma looked hard to beat even before the last election.

And, given her achievements since, it’s looking harder now. Under Ardern’s watch, the country has eliminated community transmission of COVID-19 – at least for now.






Read more:
How New Zealand could keep eliminating coronavirus at its border for months to come, even as the global pandemic worsens





Ardern’s highly visible leadership was reflected in opinion polls from April to June showing Labour over 50%, even as high as 59%.

But out of the ensuing panic in the National ranks has emerged a leader who, while polarising, might also be the party’s best chance of combating “the Jacinda effect”.

An ‘opposition from hell’

National’s problems can be traced back as far as its Pyrrhic victory at the last election. While it gained the most seats of any party, it couldn’t muster a coalition majority. The large caucus promised to be the “opposition from hell” – but ended up an opposition in hell instead.






Read more:
Ahead of the New Zealand election, Todd Muller's resignation is a National nightmare – and a sign of a toxic political culture






New Zealand politician Todd Muller pictured on his
party's website.

Former opposition leader Todd Muller and the ‘strong team’ election slogan, on the National website the day he resigned.
https://www.national.org.nz/

Internal strife intensified as National dropped below 30% in some polls. Fearing for their seats, backbenchers scratched leader Simon Bridges and elevated the inexperienced Todd Muller, who quit just 53 days later after a shocking privacy scandal and a series of embarrassing gaffes.

National looked anything but the “strong team” their advertising wants voters to believe in.

Now desperate, the caucus wasted no time electing long-serving MP Collins as the fourth opposition leader Ardern has now faced. Let’s consider her odds.

Attack versus empathy

At 61, Judith Collins is a seasoned politician. First elected in 2002, she gained ministerial experience in John Key’s National-led government (2008–17).

She earned the nickname “Crusher Collins” when, as minister of police in 2009, she proposed punishing unrepentant boy-racers by destroying their souped-up vehicles in a car-crusher.

She appears to have embraced it, declaring on the day she became leader:


I am hoping that the National Party can crush the other lot when it comes to September 19.


She is strong and combative and unafraid to play attack dog. These may now be positive qualities in a centre-right female leader wanting to differentiate herself from Ardern’s empathy and kindness.






Read more:
The National Party COVID-19 leak shows why the law must change to protect New Zealand citizens





But Collins can be charming, too, though often with an edge. She was quick to compliment Ardern as an accomplished communicator – with a back-hander that “communication is not execution”.

This suggestion that Ardern is all appearance and little substance is part of the well-worn attack line National employs against a government it wants to brand as “failing to deliver”.

Competent but controversial

Collins herself has a track record as a very competent minister. When she took over as minister for accident compensation following major privacy bungles in 2012, for example, the portfolio was quickly out of the headlines and back on track.

National’s contentious election promise to privatise personal injury insurance was quietly abandoned too.

But Collins is no stranger to scandal, either.

Tainted by “dirty politics” during the Key years, stripped of her ministerial roles over allegations she undermined the then head of the Serious Fraud Office, she was later exonerated and rehabilitated by Key.

Collins is nothing if not a survivor.

The diversity problem

A politician’s past mistakes are rarely forgotten, but National’s core supporters appreciate the no-nonsense certitude Collins displays.

Her voting record on conscience bills reveals she is relatively liberal on social issues, including abortion and same-sex marriage, unlike her immediate predecessor Muller.

While Muller’s front bench was criticised for lacking any Māori MPs, Collins’ team includes two Māori men, ranked fourth and fifth.






Read more:
An election like no other: with 100 days to go, can Jacinda Ardern maintain her extraordinary popularity?





But now there are fewer women: only two in the top 10 and six in the top 20. The day after Collins took the reins, two female front-benchers announced their decisions not to seek re-election.

As a conservative party that pitches to older folk, however, National wants to avoid looking “woke”. Collins says she won’t be “distracted” by gender and ethnicity, and will make appointments “utterly on merit”.

But her defensiveness about her own ethnicity has been, well, utterly cringe-worthy. National’s evident discomfort in confronting real-world discrimination and inequality will lose younger voters (and many older ones) to the Greens and Labour.

Who will go the distance?

So, after two leadership changes within two months, and only two months out from the election, Collins needs swiftly to discipline her team and prevent further damage.

She must also present a convincing economic plan at a time when big spending, budget deficits and borrowing for infrastructure are standard fiscal policies whether you’re left, right or centre.

Big asks, but these are extraordinary times and it’s unwise to make predictions. Labour’s rise in the polls was sudden and it could just as quickly fall, especially as economic pain becomes chronic, or if another coronavirus outbreak occurs.

Ardern’s kindness and political capital may sustain Labour through to a win. But Collins’ willpower could yet help National come from behind.

Grant Duncan, Associate Professor for the School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Conversation

© Scoop Media

 
 
 
Top Scoops Headlines

 

Gordon Campbell: On Why The Supreme Court Is A Bigger Threat Than Trump To US Democracy

If you need a chilling reminder of how weirdly different the United States is to New Zealand…then abortion rights is the place to start. Last Friday, in a case called Hopkins vs Jegley , the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the right of the ... More>>


The Conversation: Rogue Poll Or Not, All The Signs Point To A Tectonic Shift In New Zealand Politics

Richard Shaw AAP(various)/NZ Greens (CC-BY-SA)/The Conversation Strong team. More jobs. Better economy. So say the National Party’s campaign hoardings. Only thing is, last Sunday’s Newshub-Reid Research poll – which had support for the Labour ... More>>

Dunne Speaks: It's Time For Matariki Day

The period of Matariki, the celebration of the Māori New Year, which began earlier this week, is being celebrated increasingly as an important national event. While many other countries have their own form of New Year celebrations, Matariki is uniquely ... More>>

Gordon Campbell: On Why We Shouldn’t Be Pushed Into Re-Opening Our Borders

I believe in yesterday as much as Paul McCartney, but it was bemusing to see the amount of media attention lavished last week on the pandemic-related musings by former government science adviser Sir Peter Gluckman, former Prime Minister Helen Clark ... More>>

The Coronavirus Republic: Three Million Infections And Rising

The United States is famed for doing things, not to scale, but off it. Size is the be-all and end-all, and the coronavirus is now doing its bit to assure that the country remains unrivalled in the charts of infection . In time, other unfortunates may well ... More>>

Binoy Kampmark: Altars Of Hypocrisy: George Floyd, Protest And Black Face

Be wary what you protest about. The modern moral constabulary are out, and they are assisted by their Silicon Valley friends in the Social Media club. Should you dare take a stand on anything, especially in a dramatic way, you will be found out ... More>>

Binoy Kampmark: Welcome Deaths: Coronavirus And The Open Plan Office

For anybody familiar with that gruesome manifestation of the modern work place, namely the open plan office, the advent of coronavirus might be something of a relief. The prospects for infection in such spaces is simply too great. You are at risk from ... More>>


Binoy Kampmark: Why Thinking Makes It So: Donald Trump’s Obamagate Fixation

The “gate” suffix has been wearing thin since the break-in scandal that gave it its birth. Since Watergate, virtually anything dubious and suggestive, and much more besides, is suffixed. Which brings us to the issue of President Donald Trump’s ... More>>